Is China planning a Military Strike beyond its borders?

As for the "assassination groups", you've seen how the CIA, failed at even assembling groups let alone go around the world killing their targets. I highly doubt China can muster up a group like that seeing as how the US failed at it. And who would the Chinese target? The East Turkestan Islamic Movement leaders? Rebiya Kadeer? I highly doubt the latter, political assassinations are a no no, definitely in this case.

Shifty said:

As for the "assassination groups", you've seen how the CIA, failed at even assembling groups let alone go around the world killing their targets. I highly doubt China can muster up a group like that seeing as how the US failed at it. And who would the Chinese target? The East Turkestan Islamic Movement leaders? Rebiya Kadeer? I highly doubt the latter, political assassinations are a no no, definitely in this case.

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Why compare them with the CIA. Why not The Israelis/ Mosaad, they were pretty good.

Or the KGB, remember they bombed a Chechen warlord in Dubai (and got caught, but he's still dead). It seems the CIA's forte is remote sensing, electronic surveillance, and getting info. from contacts rather than infiltrating people into unfriendly (not necessarily hostile though) areas. That's no knock on the CIA, infiltration is really hard work, I think only Mossad has done it with great success and there are even areas they can't get into like Hezbollah or Iran.

As widespread as Chinese expatriate communities are around the world, and as globe-trotting as Chinese businessmen and women are, it doesn't see too hard to establish safe houses around the world staffed by full-time/sleeper intelligence agents without being noticed. Get a team of 5-6 young agents together, send them overseas ostensibly to start a business or develop business contacts like finding a retailer for some Chinese-made good, and have them set up shop for a couple years, rotating them out periodically, just as a real business would do.

Shifty said:

As for the "assassination groups", you've seen how the CIA, failed at even assembling groups let alone go around the world killing their targets. I highly doubt China can muster up a group like that seeing as how the US failed at it. And who would the Chinese target? The East Turkestan Islamic Movement leaders? Rebiya Kadeer? I highly doubt the latter, political assassinations are a no no, definitely in this case.

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Though the US/CIA in our War on terror is casting a wide net over the hole world. If the china constrain their intelligence assets to the Turkmenistan/uygure diaspora a limited assassination might be doable.

Why not do the mind warfare? Do to them the same of what they have done to you. Like using the media to start attacking the government of the target country whenever there were any bad incidents relating to ethnicity, racism or separatism - with the same crap as culture domination or unfavourable minority policy etc A few countries immediately come to mind. The only problem is China don't really have media power, and some of the countries of concern have already completed the domination of the minorities whether it's their culture, language or whatever. The biggest obstacle is China don't really have the tradition of interfering with another country's affair.

Still, I think all these so-called peaceful organizations in some countries can be very harmful to China's interest, especially to its civilians as we have already seen. Just imagine, the organizations' memberships and leaders were basically independence fighters, and still are, although not declared publicly.

Quickie said:

Why not do the mind warfare? Do to them the same of what they have done to you. Like using the media to start attacking the government of the target country whenever there were any bad incidents relating to ethnicity, racism or separatism - with the same crap as culture domination or unfavourable minority policy etc A few countries immediately come to mind.

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Spot on........ In a earlier episode and withithout getting to political, but at the time they Should have gone to town with the Uk Government involving Mark Thatcher in the Equatorial Guinea Coup attempt.

An overt military strike in response to the violence in XinJiang is unlikely, chiefly because, as others have already pointed out, there are no targets to strike militarily.

Also, a big show of force, even if there was someone/something worth bombing, would gravely damage Chinese interests as I think we can all guess how the western media is going to paint such an action.

China has became increasingly powerful and influential in recent years, but the Chinese government knows better then anyone the limits to their own power. China is still a very long way from where it wants to be, and the Chinese leadership will not do anything out of choice that will threaten the long-term development goals of China out of anger when their current strategy of showing a friendly face and hiding their teeth is working.

This can be seen in China's handling of Turkey.

I thought the Turkish government made a grave error when the branded China's security operation in XinJiang as 'genocide' and that the Chinese government would really go to town diplomatically and financially against Turkey. I mean, for Turkey of all countries to mention the word genocide is a practical invitation to make some very cutting remarks regarding Turkey's own experiences with committing genocide and veiled threats regarding the PKK and Kurdistan.

In effect, Turkey set themselves up to be spanked very hard and very publicly, and what did the CCP do? Precious little beside sending a diplomat who said China was sorry about what happened in XinJiang like it was actually China that was in the wrong.

Maybe the CCP is feeling the domestic heat for their meek display and want to do some belated chest thumping, but I doubt it.

China may be flexing its new found diplomatic muscle and testing its powers in that regard, but China will only think of offensive military action when it feels western public opinion does not matter or if it has a bullet proof justification for military action.

In this case, China has neither of those things and so it will keep the military options off the table for now.

I think many in the PLA and Chinese government desperately want to legitimate target that they can annihilate, but there isn't one to be found with regard to the violence in XinJiang.

Personally, I think if you want to watch out for Chinese military action, you show look to the east, towards North Korea, or south, to help Pakistan fight the taliban.

If China wants to fight a war out of choice to show its power, those are the only targets it can strike without doing unacceptable damage to China's core national interests of development and 'peaceful rise'.

Perhaps this guy here can be a target. Inciting and threatening violence against China's people and interest, check. Actively advocating splitting of Chinese terroritory, check. Links to al-Qaeda, check.

It amazes me how even when reporting on a terrorist threatening to bomb civilians, and they themselves are neck deep in the 'war on terror', this media outlets still writes it in a tone that's biased against China.



DUBAI (Reuters) - The leader of a group calling itself the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) urged Muslims to attack Chinese interests to punish Beijing for what he described as massacres against Uighur Muslims.

"They (Chinese) must be targeted both at home and abroad. Their embassies, consulates, centers and gathering places should be targeted," Abdul-Haq al-Turkistani said in a video posted on an Islamist website on Saturday.

"Their men should be killed and captured to seek the release of our brothers who are jailed in Eastern Turkistan ... Our duty, we in Eastern Turkistan, is to continue to resist without desperation," said Abdul-Haq, described by an al Qaeda-linked website as the leader of TIP.

Abdul-Haq, whose group has launched violent attacks in the past, accused China of committing "barbaric massacres" against Muslims in Xianjiang, which TIP calls East Turkistan.

Uighurs are a Muslim people native to Xinjiang, in China's far west, and have cultural ties to Central Asia and Turkey.

Uighurs attacked Han Chinese in Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang, on July 5 after police tried to break up a protest against fatal attacks on Uighur workers at a factory in south China. Han Chinese in Urumqi launched revenge attacks later in the week.

The violence saw 197 people killed and more than 1,600 wounded, mostly Han Chinese. About 1,000 people, mostly Uighurs, have been detained in an ensuing government crackdown.

Exiled Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer said on Wednesday that nearly 10,000 Uighurs involved in deadly riots in China's northwestern Xinjiang region went missing in one night.

Abdul-Haq's face was digitally blurred in the Arabic-language version of the video which also contained a collage of footage of the violence in the region.

The militant was speaking with an assault rifle to his right and what appeared to be a pistol pouch strapped to his shoulder.

Beijing does not want to lose its grip on Xinjiang. The vast territory borders Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, has abundant oil reserves and is China's largest natural gas-producing region.

The militant group has claimed violent attacks in the past including bombing two public buses in Shanghai in May 2008.

What China needs to do is put a price on people's heads. Beijing simply announces that it will give a generous sum of money (say $100 million USD) to somebody who kills so-and-so or the money goes to their family. Remember all these targets try to be public figures. They travel around drumming up support for their "cause." They are extremely vulnerable to assassination.

There are poor desperate people in every country. It could be very attractive for somebody at the end of their rope to decide to leave some money for his family by assassinating a political figure visiting. Or if they can do it hidden, Beijing will give them asylum and enough money for life :nana:

A certain degree of deniability would be welcome..., even the Soviets became during the 70's and 80's well behaved and used their proxies like Bulgaria for doing the ´dirty work´. (e.g. the failed hit on the pope in 1981 is still surrounded by a massive mist of disinformation!)

Iran was rather successful in neutralizing many opposition figures during the 80's and early 90's in Europe and the Middle East but Tehran was in a situation of fighting for survival and today China should have better methods to deal with creatures like Kadeer.