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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
But only in 2022 did the Taihang engine actually become reliable enough to be used by itself on a single engine fighter. So if one is to say that China is 20 years ahead of India, then we have to start the clock at 2022 for China, but that would fail anyway since India has been building Al-31FP's since before then.

As a new engine and given PLA cautiousness, it makes complete sense that they would wait a number of years until using it on a single engine fighter. But that doesn't discount the years of real world operational use on production fighters either.
Either way, you are still incorrect because WS-10s powering J-10s occurred in 2019 not 2022.

Building engines off purchased IP of others is rather different to mastering the whole tech stack and the industry yourself.

As I said, I think the entire concept of saying China is 20 years ahead of India is silly and uninformed, the concept doesn't apply because China has to develop technology on its own, India can pick up the phone and make a contract to have the West sell the technology to them. The concept of how long it takes to develop something on your own doesn't apply when one side doesn't have to reinvent the wheel and another side does.

If purchases of ToT is how you perceive as the way for India to close the gap, then okay. Others have already explained the differences and limitations of that, so I won't do so again.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
For starters, I disagree with your standards/how you frame the issue.

It does not matter what the origin of the technology is. If India learns how to build a subsystem, it doesn't matter if they got it from the Romulan Star Empire. So they've already bought the Israeli radar and they have already developed it into Uttam. The GE engines will also be manufactured in India, so it doesn't matter that it's from America or the moon.

I think you would lose the bet on Mark 2 not being available before 2030. They project it to come online in 5 years.

The first prototype of AMCA is scheduled to roll out in 3 years, which is much faster than the claim of the person who said China is 20 years ahead of India.

With regards to your claim of India not being able to build a competent gen 4 fighter, remind me of when China was able to actually make a reliable engine for a single engine fighter. 2022?

I would say the China being 20 years ahead of India claim is absurd given:

Engines - technology transfer is included, thus catching India up to China in engine production
Radar - already bought from Israel, incorporated into Uttam AESA and flight tested
Air frame - the shape of the plane is already established and the prototype estimated by the government to be airworthy next year

You can laugh at that and talk about delays and Arjunk and whatever, but the point is that it ain't 20 years behind China. If we consider that China couldn't build a 4th gen engine until 2022 and if India is producing GE-414 in 5 years, then you could argue they are 5-10 years behind China in simply building engines.

If they already have a working AESA, then again that's not close to a 20 year gap.

And they already have the airframe design of Tejas Mk2, and let's say both Tejas and AMCA go 2 years behind schedule, that still puts India 10 years behind China.
You seem to imply that giving a fresh graduate from computer science the source code of a complex system (such as 4G telecom switch), he/she would be able to make a 5G system in the same time span as a guy who has worked for 10 years in the industry?

I need to ask if you have any real life experience in engineering industry and R&D. If I give you a 100 line code, I guarantee you that you will spend weeks or even months to figure out what the code is doing, and if you are unlucky, eventually you may realize that it is useless for the new task that you are given. In the world of engineering, trying to figure out why others did things in a certain way is even more challenging than doing it on your own from scratch, and not necessarily saving your time.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
As a new engine and given PLA cautiousness, it makes complete sense that they would wait a number of years until using it on a single engine fighter. But that doesn't discount the years of real world operational use on production fighters either.
Either way, you are still incorrect because WS-10s powering J-10s occurred in 2019 not 2022.

Building engines off purchased IP of others is rather different to mastering the whole tech stack and the industry yourself.

If purchases of ToT is how you perceive as the way for India to close the gap, then okay. Others have already explained the differences and limitations of that, so I won't do so again.
If the ability to manufacture engines is genuinely transferred, I don't think the difference is that great. Sure it's great to invent things yourself, but even implementing someone else's design requires a degree of engineering and scientific proficiency.

It's the idea that Americans would give the Indians their crown jewels most people here find absurd. What are they getting in return?

Another misconception Indians have is that they think just because something is made domestically it is cheaper. While it is true in the end if it's successful, it doesn't take into the account the vast amounts of financial and engineering work required to get to that stage. What that PLAAF officer said to Zemin makes sense, in the short run it's much cheaper and easier to import a tried and tested product than to make your own.

Saving money should not be the motivation for the domestication of a military industry.
 

kentchang

Junior Member
Registered Member
China doesn't have to develop technology on its own. It chooses to do so because they can make stuff better in house, and it's safer to do so.

When India picks up the phone and buys from actors like France which were same level as China in MIC even during China's investment nadir, then they're not getting the best of even the French. And they're certainly not getting the rights to own anything.

With this method they will never reach beyond France. Let alone ever reach China or the US, which make everything in house because they have the tools and the industry capacity.

The WS10 engine was in widespread service since the early 2010s. And during the same era there are also small WS13 engines. If they chose to expand older engines for designs they're more optimized in first, such as for older J-10, that's a cost choice.

J-10 new builds delivered to Pakistan in 2021 use WS10, and even before that, China tried to offer them multiple times, but price was a concern every time. As China only keeps a legacy stockpile AL31F2 without producing more of them, any new planes from 2010-2022 era would have been using WS10.

By 2022, China has adapted 117S level engines on most of its frontline planes through the WS10C project. That is undeniably a level which India can't touch, even using its most advanced imported planes (Su-30), which they don't have a license to make however they want. Even Russia cannot reach that level of engine proliferation, as they still operate plenty of AL31.

The student can become the master only if they put in an effort to study and develop their own techniques. Calling an international arms seller that is infamous for selling to everyone like France or Russia, only trying to use monetary means to acquire tech through throwing money at then, doesn't work. These nations are smart enough to not share the trade secrets because they don't want to go out of business.
Both of you are correct thus the conclusion is that we are comparing Apples with Oranges. Is China 20 years or more ahead of India in building a 100% domestically produced 5th gen fighter? I agree. Can India build a competitive and modern AMCA with foreign assistance before 2030? Absolutely! If Korea and Turkey can, so can India and India has a deeper talent pool/head start than Korea and Turkey. National will is a separate issue.

If we are to compare China and India's aerospace industry, we really should normalize/scale the GDP and compare where China in 2007 and India in 2022 (both around ~$3.5T with similar PPP). Otherwise we are just stating the obvious that China started its reforms 20 years earlier than India thus has more money to lavish on. I suggest a better comparison is between the J-10A/AL-31 (2005) vs the Tejas Mk.1A? If these two are in the same league, then India can reach J-20/WS-10C level in 15 years if it chooses to.

The J-20/WS-10C achievement own much to the J-6/7/8/9/10 programs which spanned for half a century at great costs. China has its reasons for total self-sufficiency and have the will and persistence to pay for that. It may never make economic sense for India to do the same. Until recently, China made oodles of money NOT focusing on semiconductor manufacturing. The economics cannot justify the existence of a second ASML or TSMC. De-coupling simply means the end users pay more.

China wants to control its own destiny and be the leader in aerospace before 2049. Does India? If India just want to be in the top-tier (say a France or Germany) but not the absolute frontier before 2040, then learning to integrate the best-in-class components into a single end product is the correct path. If India's aspiration is to compete to be the best, then India is decades behind China as it has not adequately invested in the necessary eco-system. This is all engineering so just a matter of time and money and most importantly, national will. How many CMSX blade manufacturers does the world really need?

My personal feeling if I am Modi is that India has plenty of other areas to focus on with much better economic return. My ideal scenario is for India to offer Tawang as a Chinese enclave and settle all border dispute based on current LOC thus saving tens of billions of Peace Dividend every year for other spending like education and poverty reduction.
 

Lethe

Captain
I have often been disappointed with discussions here concerning India. Most topics and nations can be discussed here in a generally productive manner. Unfortunately it is clear that many of the posters who frequent the India threads here do so not of out any genuine interest in the status and ongoing development of India's armed forces, industry, or economy, but solely in order to mock India's (lack of) achievements, the gap between rhetoric and action. A kind of "bad faith" engagement is the rule, rather the exception, and that is regrettable.

For those of us who are willing to discuss Indian matters in "good faith", the difficulty arises in that there is indeed much to criticise about India's MIC. The LCA saga perhaps rightfully takes top billing, but there are no shortage of other examples of programs being subject to astonishing delays coupled with endless reworks, leading to self-inflicted harms. To take just one other current example, we see the ongoing deterioration of India's conventional submarine capabilities while foreign vendors are declining to engage with an RFP that apparently asks vendors for "everything and the kitchen sink" in technology transfer, while guaranteeing the performance of Indian companies sub-contracted under the program, and with dubious requirements such as mature, operational AIP that both halves the field of potential vendors, and which India ostensibly has access to courtesy of its own development efforts anyway! So now the latest indications are that the can is going to be kicked further down the road yet again, and India will probably eventually end up extending the Scorpene contract, no doubt on terms that are very favourable to France, in order to avoid a ruinous crash in the inventory. My point is, it is difficult to watch these sagas play out for any length of time without becoming deeply skeptical and cynical, and it is difficult to the avoid the conclusion that India is held back more by its own delusions of grandeur, kafkaesque institutions, byzantine bureaucracy, and a political class that is apparently both too distractible and too corruptible, than by any lack of technology or of funding. Real progress is being made, and in the long-term I do believe that India's achievements will be more than sufficient to disturb the established powers of this world (many of whom seem to be under the illusion, just as they were with China, that India will stay in its box forever), but surely this must be one of the ugliest races that has ever been run.

I guess the reason I am writing this, in light of how things have unfolded these past few pages, is because I do not wish to be associated with the kinds of posters who only wish to see India fail, and I regret if my recent posts have been interpreted in that vein. I would like to see a healthier atmosphere in discussions of Indian matters here, an atmosphere where questions and criticism are motivated by good-faith attempts at understanding, rather than by scorn and hostility, but I don't know if that is possible.
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
My personal feeling if I am Modi is that India has plenty of other areas to focus on with much better economic return. My ideal scenario is for India to offer Tawang as a Chinese enclave and settle all border dispute based on current LOC thus saving tens of billions of Peace Dividend every year for other spending like education and poverty reduction.
Unfortunately BJP and Congress whipped up the anti-China furor too high for Modi to do that. Indian government has no choice but to spend billions on defence to counter Chinese “aggression”
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Both of you are correct thus the conclusion is that we are comparing Apples with Oranges. Is China 20 years or more ahead of India in building a 100% domestically produced 5th gen fighter? I agree. Can India build a competitive and modern AMCA with foreign assistance before 2030? Absolutely! If Korea and Turkey can, so can India and India has a deeper talent pool/head start than Korea and Turkey. National will is a separate issue.

If we are to compare China and India's aerospace industry, we really should normalize/scale the GDP and compare where China in 2007 and India in 2022 (both around ~$3.5T with similar PPP). Otherwise we are just stating the obvious that China started its reforms 20 years earlier than India thus has more money to lavish on. I suggest a better comparison is between the J-10A/AL-31 (2005) vs the Tejas Mk.1A? If these two are in the same league, then India can reach J-20/WS-10C level in 15 years if it chooses to.

The J-20/WS-10C achievement own much to the J-6/7/8/9/10 programs which spanned for half a century at great costs. China has its reasons for total self-sufficiency and have the will and persistence to pay for that. It may never make economic sense for India to do the same. Until recently, China made oodles of money NOT focusing on semiconductor manufacturing. The economics cannot justify the existence of a second ASML or TSMC. De-coupling simply means the end users pay more.

China wants to control its own destiny and be the leader in aerospace before 2049. Does India? If India just want to be in the top-tier (say a France or Germany) but not the absolute frontier before 2040, then learning to integrate the best-in-class components into a single end product is the correct path. If India's aspiration is to compete to be the best, then India is decades behind China as it has not adequately invested in the necessary eco-system. This is all engineering so just a matter of time and money and most importantly, national will. How many CMSX blade manufacturers does the world really need?

My personal feeling if I am Modi is that India has plenty of other areas to focus on with much better economic return. My ideal scenario is for India to offer Tawang as a Chinese enclave and settle all border dispute based on current LOC thus saving tens of billions of Peace Dividend every year for other spending like education and poverty reduction.
As I see it, India can definitely reach Germany or France level in military tech even within a few years if they perform a figurative massacre of all the corrupt in their government.

The talent pool and money should be comparable. France and Germany are hardly that high level, they're on par with the J-10A in their true domestic tech and when you include foreign components, they can reach the sophistication of J-10C.

If India could boot all those without merit in their defense programs, all the fat ones that do nothing but delay and pocket money, there's no way they cannot reach Rafale level by themselves. Especially now when they have Rafales right there to reverse engineer.

I think Tejas itself is too fraught with problems, especially due to the plane size. It was a product of the time of laziness. But the Tejas mk2 or even an entirely new design could definitely be a "peak 4.5 gen", and with the help of using the foreign items they already have, there are theoretically no barriers except misappropriation of funds and time.

The F414 India wants to import is at a first glance not a good choice in performance, but if they get really good transfer of tech terms and they can indigenize it, its much better than getting hands on something with flashier stats they can't indigenize.

I'm not an aircraft engineer, but the most important components of an aircraft that hard to master is basically the avionics, the engine and the missiles. 1 and 3 are closely related. If India can get just 1 or 2 of those components down to a world class level, they will have already arrived at same level as most EU countries, and that is an achievement to be proud of.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The talent pool and money should be comparable. France and Germany are hardly that high level, they're on par with the J-10A in their true domestic tech and when you include foreign components, they can reach the sophistication of J-10C.

I think you are significantly underselling both of those nations, especially France.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
I think you are significantly underselling both of those nations, especially France.
slightly underselling France and slightly overselling Germany. Still, India can be in that ballpark, they're not far from it. And they have literally same population as China. Even if they're just 1/10 as able to contribute due to education differences, thats still a larger talent pool both France and Germany
 
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