Indian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Well a big factor that most Indians (even the realist and non Hindu supremacist types) and some here forget is that China in reality has no intention to invade India proper. The only sources of conflict between the two is the Ladakh dispute, FROM WHICH the Arunachal side dispute also stemmed from. Yes stemmed. China even 5 generations ahead of India would still not be marching into India as many Indians online ALWAYS automatically assume.

China has never done that throughout history. It likely never will invade India proper. When the conversation comes to Tibet and legitimacy of Chinese sovereignty in Ladakh, it is another question altogether.

Indians constantly think that China will take over much of India for some mysterious reason (imagine needing to govern India!) and it is because of distraction and unpreparedness that China doesn't. This is fundamentally a huge misread.

Anyway what I'm saying is that in reality, India faces no threat from China even on the dispute. As long as India doesn't inflame the region, China has been happy to let it sit until future generations are able to solve it. Just as Deng said half a century ago. There's no desire to fucking conquer India. Never has been for millennia. Unless India suddenly finds out it is the treasure trove, there isn't any reason to either.

The greatest threat China poses to India in actuality is China's willingness to arm Pakistan and sway Bangladesh over to becoming more favourable towards China than it has been towards India. These are not military fronts, not even the Pak side. Weapons trade is one thing, geopol is another. India can in theory really easily get China to stop arming Pakistan to the extent it traditionally has. How? By laying off the Tibet hard-on India has since independence. Lay off Tibet, China lays off Pakistan. In time, Pak India sort things out and India China sort things out. Region stabilises.

So there's no need to rush purchase fighters. But we all know this won't be the path traveled. India's own MIC will suffer again as purchases are being sought out.

Whatever treasures India holds was long ago stolen by the Europeans. To this day, the West "attracts" the best Indian minds by the allure of the societies they built off stolen wealth partly built on slavery. Even when China held trade with India over the Millennia and have known its wealth, it never even attempted to take.

ougoah said:

Well a big factor that most Indians (even the realist and non Hindu supremacist types) and some here forget is that China in reality has no intention to invade India proper. The only sources of conflict between the two is the Ladakh dispute, FROM WHICH the Arunachal side dispute also stemmed from. Yes stemmed. China even 5 generations ahead of India would still not be marching into India as many Indians online ALWAYS automatically assume.

China has never done that throughout history. It likely never will invade India proper. When the conversation comes to Tibet and legitimacy of Chinese sovereignty in Ladakh, it is another question altogether.

Indians constantly think that China will take over much of India for some mysterious reason (imagine needing to govern India!) and it is because of distraction and unpreparedness that China doesn't. This is fundamentally a huge misread.

Anyway what I'm saying is that in reality, India faces no threat from China even on the dispute. As long as India doesn't inflame the region, China has been happy to let it sit until future generations are able to solve it. Just as Deng said half a century ago. There's no desire to fucking conquer India. Never has been for millennia. Unless India suddenly finds out it is the treasure trove, there isn't any reason to either.

Click to expand...

Historically China just didn't go after India because it had too much territory of its own to administer.

I think it's a bit of a mistake to say that India is under no threat. China has a cyclical history driven by outward threats. China has never been a defensive civilization, once in awhile, she attacks all her rivals across the known world, destroying most of them and expanding into the most integratable parts. Both historically and today, China's tech and economy dominance basically force her to assume hegemony, whether by arms or by diplomacy. When you're Rome sized, all roads naturally lead to you and so you become partially responsible for everywhere the roads come from.

That China doesn't want to make Indians citizens doesn't mean China can't decide to come down hard on India.

But that's precisely why India should seek amends, because there is no one in the world that can help India successfully make a stand, and it isn't even in India's interest to make a stand either. Because even if India has a limited victory, China can't exactly be defeated due to nukes.

Whenever China embarked on an expansionary cycle, they didn't blindly attack out of ideological reasons, they always tried to find reasonable "tribes" to cooperate with and make the fight against the ones that can't be negotiated with easier.

Looking at the type of military buildup China is doing, you can see the interest for enlargening the mainland is very low. In the last 300 years, China adapted it's forces and marched into the great grass ocean. Today, she's adapting to march into the Pacific. India is not a target if India doesn't make itself a target.

GiantPanda said:

A fair assessment I'll look forward to see happens to the AMCA.

Mind you, this forum is tracking the J-20, J-35 and their variants along with the two new tailless fighters from CAC and SAC as we speak. And that's just with new generation fighters.

Unless it gets beyond the PPT stage in the coming years, the only time it will be mentioned at SDF would probably, unfortunately, be as a joke or a counterpoint to more successful programs.

Click to expand...

Seriously speaking, most Indian organisations tend to be unrealistic and too optimistic in their programs and datelines only to dissapoint and delay the timelined they set for themselved time and time again. So i think they should be givibg more realistic timelines or simply avoid giving such datelines. For the AMCA forget about the 2025 flight timeline their DRDO gave, we shouldn't expect the aircraft taking its first flights until 2030s in my opinion. If everything goes well( thats a big IF) expect it to go into service around 2035/2040. Thats still assuming things move well (which is unlikely giving such a big and sophisticated program).

FairAndUnbiased said:

I wrote before how if India went all in on FGFA and asked for Russian help no matter what, like the Su-30 MKI, it would've been better. If you can't make alone, at least get help from 1 ecosystem that you know, learn everything and stick to it no matter what.

The problem with India is that it is basically a 3rd world country. Not in terms of poverty alone, but in mentality. In 3rd world countries, the military is basically a political prestige project where El Presidente orders the latest and greatest without regard for readiness, compatibility, etc.

Basically, these countries can't even buy right, let alone make right.

Simple examples would be Iraq, Egypt and formerly Pakistan. A mix of planes from Russia/US/France/China, all with incompatible munitions, no regard for readiness, doctrine and strategy.

Example of this disregard of readiness and doctrine: Egypt may have Rafaels, F-16s and Su-30s but they don't have a single BVR missile. So in reality they're unlikely to beat even Ethiopia without huge losses, which has Su-30s with R-77s.

Alternative history:

Imagine if India stuck to the Russian system since 2010. All the Rafale money for Su-57 with ToT and fully indigenizing Su-30 MKI. Tejas cancelled. All Tejas money for a JL-9 trainer equivalent, Kaveri based on HAL Al-31 and Uttam AESA instead. Eventually, Su-57 MKI.

By today, IAF would be flying 400+ Su-30 MKI with Uttam AESA and Astra missiles. It would be importing 24 Su-57s and assembling up to another 12 Su-57 MKIs. It would be phasing out Mig-21s for its version of JL-9 with proven domestic and Russian components rather than ending up with the Frankenstein hodge podge of LCA.

China would both worry about this India less and have more respect for this India. It would show both more competence, and more independence.

Click to expand...

Yeah i think looking back it was a mistake to abandon the SU-57 project with Russia. Had India remained in the program the fighter woulf have probably be in mass porduction by now since India would have helped fill in the much needed funds Russia needs which is delaying the project today since it seems Russia is struggling to mass produce them due to lack of funds. However, we can also understand India, Russia was reluctant to transfer enough critical technology India demanded, but i still think that is something India could have bargained with Russia on with time instead of abandoning the project altogether. Now they seem to be in a dilemma about what to do. So it will be a weird situation for them to go for SU-57 again on less favorable terms than over a decade ago .

Its kind of a mess at this moment. Hopefully they can come up with a viable solution.

FairAndUnbiased said:

message #10699, page 1070
I wrote before how if India went all in on FGFA and asked for Russian help no matter what, like the Su-30 MKI, it would've been better. If you can't make alone, at least get help from 1 ecosystem that you know, learn everything and stick to it no matter what.

The problem with India is that it is basically a 3rd world country. Not in terms of poverty alone, but in mentality. In 3rd world countries, the military is basically a political prestige project where El Presidente orders the latest and greatest without regard for readiness, compatibility, etc.

Basically, these countries can't even buy right, let alone make right.



Alternative history:

Imagine if India stuck to the Russian system since 2010. All the Rafale money for Su-57 with ToT and fully indigenizing Su-30 MKI. Tejas cancelled. All Tejas money for a JL-9 trainer equivalent, Kaveri based on HAL Al-31 and Uttam AESA instead. Eventually, Su-57 MKI.

Click to expand...

I would not comment on the 'third world mentality' part of your reply. But i would say that it is a very very basic and somewhat myopic analysis of the Indian defence situation and basically whole of Indian politics in general. I currently do not possess enough knowledge and capability to curate a proper reply which would do justice to the complexity of India's defense strategy and political landscape. Even if I did possess them, explaining them in a manner which will leave no stone unturned(very important) and understanding to the last minute detail like what it actually is, what events shaped it, who broke the norm.... will take a small book worth of text at the very least. We had some 'El Presidente' who would leak top-secret info to our adversaries, and also had some who would not let anyone touch India over their dead body, and as such their mindset and approach towards the defense apparatus varied. Some would carefully listen to the military and do as the military advices, whereas some would not care about the military at all. I use the term 'El presidente' to also include the other members in the hierarchy of Indian Ministry of Defense, as they too play a very vital role in the decisions taken for the military.

Regarding the second part of your reply, the alternate history, it can be said to be an Idealistic take which grossly ignores the realities of the joint-partnership of India and Russia in developing a fifth gen aircraft.
It would seem like it is a perfect scenario for India to get the Su 57s. It had all the right things going for it, like the program was a joint partnership with Russia, which means it is certainly not fully Homegrown (refer to chandigah lobby linked previously) and Russia is a long standing source of defense imports for Indian military. We are on good terms with them and they provide us with many critical technologies and war machines. We even built a couple hundred Su 30s right here in India.
But this did not happen, mainly due to the following reasons:-

• Technological Disagreements: From the start, India raised concerns about the aircraft's engine, stealth features, and weapon systems. Even after evaluating the first Russian prototype, the IAF requested over 40 design changes to address weaknesses, which suggests that the initial aircraft did not meet India’s needs. Were these needs addressed? We don't know.
• Lack of Critical Tech Transfers: One of the main demands was the ability to independently upgrade and maintain the aircraft, which required access to sensitive source codes. We had asked for 100% ToT. Russia repeatedly refused to share this information unless India increased its financial contribution(to upto 7 billion dollars for R&D alone, dont forget India would have to spend a whopping
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  to get 144 aircrafts), which was a non-starter for India’s long-term self-reliance goals and also hard to finance.
• Unclear Financial Commitment: While the original agreement envisaged 250 aircrafts for Russia and 144 for India, Russia later revised its
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  , reducing the number of aircraft to barely a squadron in favour of Su 35s and introducing further delays. This lack of commitment to the joint project led to frustration in India.
  
  
• Engine Development and Overall Delays: Russia’s failure to develop a new engine for the FGFA on time and reliance on an older engine further raised concerns about the project’s future viability and performance. The deadline kept on extending again and again. You can argue that they still have not fully developed the engine and integrated it to Su 57.
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All these reason left India iat a bad spot and we thought that its better for us to invest ourselves fully in the tech demostrator known as AMCA and develop the jet ourselves while spending a reasonable sum of money and time. Although AMCA itself is delayed, we cant say that it is a bad decision as Russians still are not finished with the Su 57's development(although still ahead of us).

Regarding the rafale and its money to be spent on the FGFA, well, I wont argue that they are some costly jets and the extra cost of training, missiles, and other facilities made their deal even more costly. In this case, whether we should have stuck with the Su 57s or not is a hard arguement to make. The Su 57 are still not ready and if we take its current configuration, it is not much better then the rafale. but i would say that while the Rafales cost us 240 million per piece(), the Su 57s would have cost us 196 to 208 million a piece(, ), also we would have also received a domestic manufacturing facility(we could have gotten that with the rafale too if we actually ordered 126 of them we originally planned for, so not much of a difference really). Basically, if we stuck with Su 57, we would have started receiveing them from 2022 onwards if the deadlines were actually followed through(which did not happen), same time as Rafale completed all 36 deliveries. I am sure that we wouldn't even have received 36 Su 57s by now seeing the current satus of the project and its capabilities being comparable to Rafale means we would not have gotten the basic thing, 5th gen stealth, which we were specifically looking for in this jet. No point in wasting money in things which in the end wont even meet your expectatioans and requirements. I would blame the IAF not for pulling out of the Su 57, but to order only 36 rafales, we needed the 126 fully ordered as it woud have been more beneficial.

Regarding the Su 30 mki indegenisation, I fail to see why we would be flying 400+ of them. We already have ~270 of them in service, and we basically are not looking for anymore heavy weight fighters. Maybe i missed something.
The production of Su 30 barely gave us any

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of developing aircraft and many of its critical tech like engines were not transferred to us and we still import them. Maybe we could have done something about it in the FGFA program, but this was a cautionary tail not to be repeated by us in FGFA (100% ToT or nothing), anyways there was nothing apart from the engines which we could not have developed inhouse ourselves. So no need to stick to problematic FGFA just so we can atleast indegenize the Su 30.
We are also upgrading them with ongoing Super sukhoi program, for which many indegenous technologies have been already developed indegenously by us.
That includes the Aesa radar, Virupaksha variant for Su 30, which btw is GaN based.
So we basically did not need russia for the development of Uttam radar and also for the upgradation and indigenisation of Su 30 to the standard we want.

continued.........

FairAndUnbiased said:

I wrote before how if India went all in on FGFA and asked for Russian help no matter what, like the Su-30 MKI, it would've been better. If you can't make alone, at least get help from 1 ecosystem that you know, learn everything and stick to it no matter what.

The problem with India is that it is basically a 3rd world country. Not in terms of poverty alone, but in mentality. In 3rd world countries, the military is basically a political prestige project where El Presidente orders the latest and greatest without regard for readiness, compatibility, etc.

Basically, these countries can't even buy right, let alone make right.

Simple examples would be Iraq, Egypt and formerly Pakistan. A mix of planes from Russia/US/France/China, all with incompatible munitions, no regard for readiness, doctrine and strategy.

Example of this disregard of readiness and doctrine: Egypt may have Rafaels, F-16s and Su-30s but they don't have a single BVR missile. So in reality they're unlikely to beat even Ethiopia without huge losses, which has Su-30s with R-77s.

Alternative history:

Imagine if India stuck to the Russian system since 2010. All the Rafale money for Su-57 with ToT and fully indigenizing Su-30 MKI. Tejas cancelled. All Tejas money for a JL-9 trainer equivalent, Kaveri based on HAL Al-31 and Uttam AESA instead. Eventually, Su-57 MKI.

By today, IAF would be flying 400+ Su-30 MKI with Uttam AESA and Astra missiles. It would be importing 24 Su-57s and assembling up to another 12 Su-57 MKIs. It would be phasing out Mig-21s for its version of JL-9 with proven domestic and Russian components rather than ending up with the Frankenstein hodge podge of LCA.

China would both worry about this India less and have more respect for this India. It would show both more competence, and more independence.

Click to expand...

continued....
Regarding the last point you talked about, cancellation of the Tejas program and Kaveri engine.
The kaveri engine had already been kinda cancelled when it was delinked from tejas in 2008 after we chose the american F-404 to power it. It stopped receiving any funding(it received peanuts anyways) and was collecting dust. whether it could have benefitted from russian help is doubtable as russians would not share critical engine tech with us, especially for the small amount of money we were offering them.
The tejas program was started in 1983 when it was envisaged to be a light weight homegrown fighter to replace the ageing planes like Mig 21. It is meant to be a point defense fighter which protects inward areas and acts as an interceptor, not a attacker which will go beyond enemy lines. As such, with the latest and upcoming variants being aesa and BVR equipped, its a good jet which can serve the purpose its meant for(we all know its comically delayed). It was never meant to compete with F-16 or Gripen or any other jet (hypernationalist compare it and receive thrashing from the foreigners,so tejas gets bashed for things it did and also for things it did not do, sad life for tejas ngl). Developing it for nearly 30 years with 40 jets already ordered, cancelling it did not make much sense. The problem now was not with the development, but the production of the jet. Sure the russians could have helped us to make them faster as we were producing 12 sukhoi every year, but at this stage, when the development was nearly done for the Mk1 and orders already placed, it would have been foolish to cancel, go to russians and take their help to develop another new jet of the same category and then test it, change it, test it... and so on. It would have been even more delayed.
The best time to cancel tejas was early 1990s or pre 2000. After getting orders for 20 jets in 2006, it was just not worth it to start from scratch and do it all over again.
So basically cancelling the project was out of the equation, however russians could have been roped in to manufacture them faster and help replace the foreign equipment. This could have been a massive thing if it would have happened but alas, when the main thing was not happening, others too were not gonna happen.

I wrote all this information while falling asleep on my bed at 11:00 pm. As such the grammar and points are confusing as hell, even to me. Also my explanation skills are not so good.
Please only read and care about the points written in bold. Remaining info is not needed and is confused yapping from my side for which i am sorry. But the main points mentioned about the FGFA not going through and the role of us not getting any knowledge of aircraft manufacturing with the Su 30s leading to us being wary about the russian mindset with the FGFA tech sharing, it was a deal destined for failure. And with the main point of deal being a failure, nothing else that could have happened was posible. We were not going to stick around with russia when we were not getting 5th gen tech, just for the other things we could have gotten from the partnership afterinvesting billions into it.

FighterHead said:

We had asked for 100% ToT. Russia repeatedly refused to share this information unless India increased its financial contribution(to upto 7 billion dollars for R&D alone, dont forget India would have to spend a whopping

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to get 144 aircrafts), which was a non-starter for India’s long-term self-reliance goals and also hard to finance.

Click to expand...

Serously India has to be more realistic as well. Asking for 100% technology transfer ? I dont think any country has ever done that to be honest. Who will agree to voluntarily transfer ALL their best military technology to another country just for money?
No country does that especially for such critical military technology which the country has spent several decades building. I think India was asking abit too much on this one

FighterHead said:

We were not going to stick around with russia when we were not getting 5th gen tech, just for the other things we could have gotten from the partnership afterinvesting billions into

Click to expand...

Did India get back some of the billions she invested in the program.

FairAndUnbiased said:

China humbly bought the Su-27 from Russia in 1992 even though it was only on parity with the F-16s that Taiwan received the same year. And Russia was in very bad shape that year, with no guarantee that the Su-27 would get any support whatsoever.

Click to expand...

Tbf, India wasn't sanctioned like China. Chinese had no other option than to procure the Su-27. While India at the time, in addition to the Russian aircraft, was still able to procure Western jets; Mirage 2000, Jaguar etc.

Rest of your post is true. India could've studied and made derivatives of existing foreign aircraft, many of which were being locally assembled. In 1950s, India received not only foreign help but also German WWII engineers and licensed production of foreign engines. Yet they wasted these opportunities. Bad work ethic? Poor guidance? Bad environment? I don't know, but corruption has always been there, and nothing useful came out of these great opportunities.

Their current strategy is psychotic and bound to fail. Incorporate foreign systems into a single machine and have the final product compete globally against those that gave you the sub components. To start off, they should've stuck to small projects and continued partnerships with the likes of IPTN, Embraer, CASA (although, these guys have moved far ahead of India now).

zyklon said:

To be fair, Indians are a proud people, and given the legacy and history of their civilization, no one should be surprised or necessarily even offended by their nationalism.

Click to expand...

I think you haven't studied their history. The most prosperous eras in Indian history were under foreign rule. The most notable Indian monuments are foreign constructed. The most powerful empires there were of foreign stock. Even their main religions, collectively known as Hinduism, is foreign. Bloody hell, even the word india is foreign.

They are proud, yes, but this pride is built on delusions, and it's a fairly new development. What you have today as a Hindu-led federation is a very new concept with a very short history. Also, quite unstable.

GiantPanda said:

I'm sorry but India, so far, has proven that it is pretty much incapable of building aircraft on its own.

Click to expand...

They have this,
Reverse-engineered from a 1950s British trainer. Engine is also British.

FighterHead said:

But this did not happen, mainly due to the following reasons:-

• Technological Disagreements: From the start, India raised concerns about the aircraft's engine, stealth features, and weapon systems. Even after evaluating the first Russian prototype, the IAF requested over 40 design changes to address weaknesses, which suggests that the initial aircraft did not meet India’s needs. Were these needs addressed? We don't know.
• Lack of Critical Tech Transfers: One of the main demands was the ability to independently upgrade and maintain the aircraft, which required access to sensitive source codes. We had asked for 100% ToT. Russia repeatedly refused to share this information unless India increased its financial contribution(to upto 7 billion dollars for R&D alone, dont forget India would have to spend a whopping
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  to get 144 aircrafts), which was a non-starter for India’s long-term self-reliance goals and also hard to finance.
• Unclear Financial Commitment: While the original agreement envisaged 250 aircrafts for Russia and 144 for India, Russia later revised its
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  , reducing the number of aircraft to barely a squadron in favour of Su 35s and introducing further delays. This lack of commitment to the joint project led to frustration in India.
  
  
• Engine Development and Overall Delays: Russia’s failure to develop a new engine for the FGFA on time and reliance on an older engine further raised concerns about the project’s future viability and performance. The deadline kept on extending again and again. You can argue that they still have not fully developed the engine and integrated it to Su 57.
• Also read
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All these reason left India iat a bad spot and we thought that its better for us to invest ourselves fully in the tech demostrator known as AMCA and develop the jet ourselves while spending a reasonable sum of money and time. Although AMCA itself is delayed, we cant say that it is a bad decision as Russians still are not finished with the Su 57's development(although still ahead of us).

Regarding the rafale and its money to be spent on the FGFA, well, I wont argue that they are some costly jets and the extra cost of training, missiles, and other facilities made their deal even more costly. In this case, whether we should have stuck with the Su 57s or not is a hard arguement to make. The Su 57 are still not ready and if we take its current configuration, it is not much better then the rafale. but i would say that while the Rafales cost us 240 million per piece(

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), the Su 57s would have cost us 196 to 208 million a piece(

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,

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), also we would have also received a domestic manufacturing facility(we could have gotten that with the rafale too if we actually ordered 126 of them we originally planned for, so not much of a difference really). Basically, if we stuck with Su 57, we would have started receiveing them from 2022 onwards if the deadlines were actually followed through(which did not happen), same time as Rafale completed all 36 deliveries. I am sure that we wouldn't even have received 36 Su 57s by now seeing the current satus of the project and its capabilities being comparable to Rafale means we would not have gotten the basic thing, 5th gen stealth, which we were specifically looking for in this jet. No point in wasting money in things which in the end wont even meet your expectatioans and requirements. I would blame the IAF not for pulling out of the Su 57, but to order only 36 rafales, we needed the 126 fully ordered as it woud have been more beneficial.

Regarding the Su 30 mki indegenisation, I fail to see why we would be flying 400+ of them. We already have ~270 of them in service, and we basically are not looking for anymore heavy weight fighters. Maybe i missed something.
The production of Su 30 barely gave us any

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

of developing aircraft and many of its critical tech like engines were not transferred to us and we still import them. Maybe we could have done something about it in the FGFA program, but this was a cautionary tail not to be repeated by us in FGFA (100% ToT or nothing), anyways there was nothing apart from the engines which we could not have developed inhouse ourselves. So no need to stick to problematic FGFA just so we can atleast indegenize the Su 30.
We are also upgrading them with ongoing Super sukhoi program, for which many indegenous technologies have been already developed indegenously by us.
That includes the

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Aesa radar, Virupaksha variant for Su 30, which btw is GaN based.
So we basically did not need russia for the development of Uttam radar and also for the upgradation and indigenisation of Su 30 to the standard we want.

Click to expand...

Nobody will ever give you 100% tech transfer. China never got 100% tech transfer. By 2017 India already achieved 80% localization on the Su-30 MKI and 10+ years of experience assembling it. Are you telling me Indian scientists are incapable of learning by experience and need to be told the last 20% step by step? Even if you couldn't do the engine there is a huge difference between importing a whole plane and importing the engine. If you aren't satisfied with the tech Russia gives, pay for the right to modify the design.

Now looking back on what India actually spent on MRCA, the FGFA deal of $30B for 144 aircraft is amazing in comparison at $208M USD per airframe. I have never heard of the situation where anyone else would reject lower unit cost for 5th gen airframes and TOT in favor of higher unit cost on 4.5 gen airframes and no TOT. And it does not matter if the Su-57 doesn't have all the features you want, only that it has the features: internal weapons bay and LO shaping.

You say that India only lacks the engine and blame ToT. I say India can't even design a modern original airframe so you have much bigger problems than just the engine. LCA is a primitive airframe with 1970's handling characteristics and layout, like a F-5. . In fact . Soon . And Iran is building its own turbojets. How much ToT is Iran getting? Is India even worse than Iran at aerospace? Now look at South Korea. Even though KF-21 has all imported subcomponents, at least the airframe is an indigenous Korean one - though clearly F-15 inspired.

All I see from you are excuses. Ironically, the same thing that was called out earlier.