Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)

hashtagpls said:

And you see this in how irrational and emotional the anglo leadership gets when it comes to China, how eager they are to resort to nuclear armageddon because they refuse to accept a non white state as an equal

Click to expand...

I'll expand further:
Since anglo societies are de facto apartheid racial caste structures based on white supremacy, white anglos in the form of the Five Eyes cannot afford for the world, let alone their own citizens witness China as surpassing them. This is why the anglo propaganda machine from the murdochian press to the NYT is going for broke when it comes to the wuhan lab conspiracy theory. They have to peddle lies to weaken China because even if China becomes a peer competitor, their entire apartheid racial caste structure collapses.

To see the power of the myth of white anglo supremacy, look at the subservience of asian nations especially amongst the boomer generation when dealing with america and americans. When that myth of white supremacy is shattered with China providing better living standards, and most soon, with a moonbase and Martian outposts and interstellar travel, the system of exploitation that the white anglos use to cement their power comes crashing down.

I would prefer to see a multi-polar world developed after America has ceased to be the one and only one Hegemon.
Asia led by China,
Europe led by Germany/France, and
5 eyes led by USA.
also that multi-polar state hopefully can develop gradually instead of abruptly, and peacefully to lessen the chaos and confusion and the chance of WW3.
American hegemony will not go away in this century at least, as it is still the strongest country in the world, and probably the strongest nuclear power too even though it is clearly on its way to decline.
if USA loses power too rapidly or faces the prospect of disintegration due to implosion, it might be tempted to use its nuclear arsenal in a reckless attempt to preserve its preeminent status, then woe to the world indeed.

The decline of the US relative to China is unlikely to continue indefinitely. There will be a point where US population growth relative to China begins increasing faster than Chinese productivity growth relative to the US. We are about 40-70yrs from that point though. Eventually we will have a true multipolar world, it is very unlikely we will ever see China become a global hegemon or sole superpower in the same sense the US was at the end of the Cold War.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

The decline of the US relative to China is unlikely to continue indefinitely. There will be a point where US population growth relative to China begins increasing faster than Chinese productivity growth relative to the US. We are about 40-70yrs from that point though. Eventually we will have a true multipolar world, it is very unlikely we will ever see China become a global hegemon or sole superpower in the same sense the US was at the end of the Cold War.

Click to expand...

Sole superpowers are historically very rare anyway.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

The decline of the US relative to China is unlikely to continue indefinitely. There will be a point where US population growth relative to China begins increasing faster than Chinese productivity growth relative to the US. We are about 40-70yrs from that point though. Eventually we will have a true multipolar world, it is very unlikely we will ever see China become a global hegemon or sole superpower in the same sense the US was at the end of the Cold War.

Click to expand...

You're assuming the UNITED States will still be around in 40 years. Personally, I think that's looking increasingly unlikely.

solarz said:

You're assuming the UNITED States will still be around in 40 years. Personally, I think that's looking increasingly unlikely.

Click to expand...

The US will be around...god forbid, I am living there...but what will it look like? what will it look like in 100 or 500 years, and China?

discspinner said:

The US will be around...god forbid, I am living there...but what will it look like? what will it look like in 100 or 500 years, and China?

Click to expand...

Those are meaningless numbers. Nobody can predict what will happen 50 years from now. 100 years would just be science fiction.

Domestically, IMO, the most important factor in China’s rise will be the development of a solid Chinese middle-class that numbers -350 million and which supports a solid consumer class twice this size. Upon achieving this, China will become not only the world’s primary source of supply, but also its primary source of demand. This will result in Chinese perspectives, tastes, opinions, preferences, and expressions exerting similar influence on global perceptions to that which Americans have since the end of WWII. I would hope (and expect) to see this occur before the termination of my probable life-expectancy in 2042.

Diplomatically, I’d hope to see China develop strategies to exert soft and hard power to carve out a solid sphere of Chinese influence within the SCS periphery and on the Korean Peninsula. It makes much more sense to bring countries like Vietnam and Indonesia (and, even the Philippines) into mutually beneficial political economic arrangements than to have adversarial relations. Could Vietnam be a candidate for another rail branch of the OBOR? Additionally, wouldn’t it be great for China to marshal its diplomatic and military leverage to finally force the removal of US military forces from the Korean Peninsula? Combining military-aid efforts with Russia to strengthen NK’s air-defense posture, encouraging NK to move their DMZ border artillery to defensive -as opposed to offensive- ranges, and, also, limiting their ballistic missiles to ranges outside the peninsula, and encouraging NK to limit its nuclear warheads to those missiles would eliminate the US/ROK rationale for the stationing of US forces, and could result, ultimately, in a demilitarization of the peninsula, as a whole.

Militarily, I don’t see the need for China to either replace, or surpass, the US as a global power. By simply exerting sufficient military capabilities and influence in the western Pacific, SCS, Indian, and Arabian Oceans, and therefore in the larger part of Asia, China will have reduced the US and Europe to a hemispheric power coalition. I do, however, think that China will have to move past a nuclear strategy of minimum deterrence regarding the Anglo alliance particularly. And, in particular, I’d hope to see PLAN’s SSBN fleet either equal, or exceed, the capacities of the USN/RN alliance.

Anybody understand what's going on with Vietnam and China? Recent statements seem to indicate a vast upgrading of relations. Is this actually happening or just superficial?

sndef888 said:

Anybody understand what's going on with Vietnam and China? Recent statements seem to indicate a vast upgrading of relations. Is this actually happening or just superficial?

Click to expand...

If I may venture a guess, I think the improvement is only superficial, as reflected by the fact that Vietnam has so far not shown strong interest to join the Chinese OBOR initiative. please correct me if I am in the wrong.
I guess both sides do not trust each other, but have to live with the fact that they are geographical neighbours.
China being the stronger side, doesn't care much about Vietnam as long as it does not cling to America too closely at the expense of Chinese interests.
Vietnam is probably fearful of its giant neighbour, but can't do anything about it for fear of retributions, financially or militarily or both. so it has to walk a tight rope between China and America.
I would tend to think that one sign of genuine trust / friendship (if at all possible) developed between the two countries will be the construction of a HSR linking the two.