Good man you are
Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)
- Thread starter tamsen_ikard
- Start date
several incorrect assertions.
1. In 1500, china had not existed as an empire, much less top empire, for thousandS of years. The very first instance when something recognizably as China, and can claim to be an empire, was less than two thousand years old at the time.
2. during about 700 of the intervening 1700 years between that first chinese empire snd 1500, china either didn’t exist as a single state, or could not claim dominance even in its own region, much less lay claim to being the world’s top empire.
3. For at least 300-400 of the remaining 1000 years when china was convincingly the dominant state in the sinosphere, China also could not convincingly claim to be the top empire in the WORLD. Other competitors easily rival it in some important aspects and surpass it in other.
That leaves about 600-700 years when China truly is able to claim to be the top empire in the world.
In this light, china’s tenure as the top empire of the world was really not extremely long. Rome and it’s successor the byzantine empire can give it a run for its money even though the overall lifespan of Romano-Byzantine polity was slightly shorter. Ancient Egyptian tenure was definitively longer.
Furthermore, In 1500, china should not have perceived itself as unassailable superior to all comers because 1. china’s military mastery was in fact not as strong as it had been during Han dynasty, and it would slip much further against turkic tribes in the next 100 years. 2. it also wasn’t that long ago, well within folk memory, when song dynasty lost dominion of much of northern China to the Jirchi, and then was decisively and totally crushed by the Mongols.
So in 1500 china had no real solid or lengthy foundation to suppose it had any intrinsic and unassailable superiority that could credibly allows it to reject any foreign influences. There is only the ground to suppose Confucian world view and social structure that secures the privilege of the elite within chinese society could be put at risk by exposure to foreign influence.
so the reason why china fell behind is not “we fell behind only because we were really so great and we got use to it”. it is more like “we fell behind because the interests of the elite required us to not admit we are not the best and have much to learn and have to make fundamental changes”.
This I am not sure has fundamentally changed completely.
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I do still see some people in my country who still behave likes you mentioned but I also see how much has changed. Our younger generation is more exposed to the outside world especially now when they are being directly challenged by the number one superpower which I am honestly quite thankful for. So many younger compatriates are being made through these times. The younger people are becoming more supportive of their country. I believe that going forward if the next president can also carry us well then these beliefs will be more solidified.
You reported that you tried to buy Yuan at your bank in Canada and the fees are horrible, it doesn't impress me. In the foreign exchange market, the Yuan represents 4.2% of the total used, this may seem significant, but the Chinese currency is in 5th place, behind the leading dollar, the euro, the pound, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. The Chinese currency is not yet fully convertible and the Chinese need a long way to become the main currency used in the forex market.
China still needs to change a lot before having its currency as the world's main reserve currency. China has made significant strides over the last decade to make this a reality, the IMF's acceptance of, for example, the Chinese currency in the IMF's SDR basket of currencies. The Chinese currency represents something around 10% of the currency basket, with the euro ahead with 30% and the dollar in the lead with more than 40% of its share in the currency basket. This may mean something, but it does not represent the real world of international reserves of the world's main central banks, even if the Yuan will considerably increase its performance in the IMF's SDR currency basket, it does not mean that the Chinese currency is being used in the countries' international reserves. The world today has a value of US$12 trillion as reserves, the Yuan represents only US$230 billion, something a little above 2%, as you can see, a very different percentage of the SDR's basket of currencies as a whole, the dollar represents half of all reserves, for the Yuan to dethrone the dollar as the main reserve currency, it will take many decades to be used as the main currency of the world's monetary authorities.
The use of the Chinese currency in the international market is also a percentage similar to the reserve currency status, somewhere around 1.91% of the total, well behind the euro with more than 36% and the dollar with more than 38% of the total of the currencies used, the Yuan is in 5th place, also behind the pound sterling and the Japanese yen, the problem is that China is the largest exporting country in the world and about to become the largest importer in the world as well, but even under these commercial conditions , its currency still has a negligible participation in global trade, even considering its gigantic economy. The data that impressed me the most was that, despite being the largest exporting country in the world, the currency most used for financing exports, the dollar continues to lead with more than 56% of the total, well ahead of the euro with 6% and the Chinese currency in third place with 2.22%.
The Chinese manage to send large sums of money abroad through unofficial channels, in reality this situation has been present since the capital control exercised by the Chinese. Through parallel channels, the Chinese send more than US$50,000 abroad, if you take the volumes sent abroad, you will see that the movement of capital abroad has not changed at all, there has only been a decrease in the movement of official channels , increasing the participation of parallel channels of exchange movements.
The main monetary standard is the unit of account, and the dollar is the unit of account on the planet, this is the highest level of a monetary standard, think of everything that is currently priced in the international market, both financial and commercial, everything is based in dollars from commodities, oil, wealth, GDP and everything else that can be priced. The euro is not a unit of account, the pound sterling is not a unit of account, the yen is not a unit of account either, and the Yuan is clearly not either, if it is ever going to make it.
China is far from making its currency its reserve currency, and even further as its main currency standard. China needs to open its capital account, allow the free conversion of its currency, that means the Chinese cannot control the foreign exchange market, that is, assure investors that they can sell a Chinese government bond or a stock in a company and withdraw the amount whenever you want and in the volume you want, today there is no such free movement of capital. In the US, you can do as you please without having to worry about volumes, as there is no exchange control as it is present in China, which is why the world still trusts the dollar and not the Yuan, the dollar still has a lot of confidence that Yuan doesn't have. If that doesn't change, it's very difficult for the Yuan to be a global competitor to the dollar as the world's main currency in every way.
Sorry, had to delete for poor formatting.
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So from your sweeping statement you assert that
- The Zhou dynasty was never an empire it never 'split' into a set of warring states, those were just willed into existence by the mandate of heaven or something
- Only the Qin and Han Empires could be considered the top empire!
- The Tang Empire never unified China
- The Northern Sung never existed as a unified Chinese Empire
Finally, in 1500 China was not the No 1 Empire but some other one, please enlighten every body which glorious polity that would be, makes it easier than guessing
No rush, but I've got to decide whether I need to make space on my bookshelf because if your assertions are correct there's a pile of books that is just plain wrong clogging up space and I need to dump them and get some new ones that's not full of rabid Chinese propaganda. That would be a shame I rather enjoyed the 'Science and Civilisation in China' volumes by Joseph Needham.
Maybe, Baseless Assertions would be a more fitting username, here, or Ignore List?
Sorry, couldn’t resist!
"Taiwan reunification will have been achieved around 2030-2040"
This is a most fascinating question for me, how to achieve reunification without war. Maybe a coup by the Taiwan military?
Hong Kong and Macau returned to Chinese sovereignty from the Brits and the Portuguese respectively without wars, conflicts, or bloodshed - I can't see why the same can't be achieved when it comes to Taiwan. People forget Xi Jinping met with then President Ma Ying-Jeou not so long ago in 2015, and relations between China and the KMT were warming up until the DPP came into power.
With Tsai Ing-Wen's polling numbers in decline as a result of the DPP's handling of a crippling drought, electricity blackout, and setbacks with the current COVID surge we might just see a shift in Taiwan's politics when the people there see who that Tsai's "regime" doesn't have their interests at heart, and some form of reunification (whether Taiwan becomes China's 35th province or some sort of Special Administrative Region like Hong Kong or Macau) with the Mainland is achieved.
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Things are starting to change, it did take time but the current leader is becoming more and more like an Asian Trump that sooner or later, people will either start seeing reason or they start to riot like they did in HK and the best part, is that China didn't have to do anything like the USA did the HK. Talk about money efficiency, cause China like with its military, is able to get more done, then the USA has and its F35 epic fail where the trillions of dollars spent, still cannot make the plane turn invisible like in the predator.Hong Kong and Macau returned to Chinese sovereignty from the Brits and the Portuguese respectively without wars, conflicts, or bloodshed - I can't see why the same can't be achieved when it comes to Taiwan. People forget Xi Jinping met with then President Ma Ying-Jeou not so long ago in 2015, and relations between China and the KMT were warming up until the DPP came into power.
With Tsai Ing-Wen's polling numbers in decline as a result of the DPP's handling of a crippling drought, electricity blackout, and setbacks with the current COVID surge we might just see a shift in Taiwan's politics when the people there see who that Tsai's "regime" doesn't have their interests at heart, and some form of reunification (whether Taiwan becomes China's 35th province or some sort of Special Administrative Region like Hong Kong or Macau) with the Mainland is achieved.