Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)

it is not wise to discount the potential of 1.4 billion people, likely to be 2-2.5 billion+ in 50 years, because of issues it exhibits now. where might a foreign observer with passing familiarity with what is happening with china in 1971 have predicted where china might be in 2021?

If in 50 years India’s GDP per capita still remains 1/3 of china’s as it is now, Indian economy would likely be larger than that of the US. In reality, China has reached the point of development that would see development rate level off, where as india can still expect 2 or 3 decades of rapid growth, so the ratio of GDP per capita would decline. so India would almost certainly be physically and economically stronger than the US in 50 years. India being far closer than the US would be a far more prominent fixture in the china’s geopolitical world than the US.

Richard Santos said:

it is not wise to discount the potential of 1.4 billion people, likely to be 2-2.5 billion+ in 50 years, because of issues it exhibits now. where might a foreign observer with passing familiarity with what is happening with china in 1971 have predicted where china might be in 2021?

If in 50 years India’s GDP per capita still remains 1/3 of china’s as it is now, Indian economy would likely be larger than that of the US. In reality, China has reached the point of development that would see development rate level off, where as india can still expect 2 or 3 decades of rapid growth, so the ratio of GDP per capita would decline. so India would almost certainly be physically and economically stronger than the US in 50 years. India being far closer than the US would be a far more prominent fixture in the china’s geopolitical world than the US.

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The UN projects India's population to peak at 1.64 billion around 2050 and 1.45 billion by 2100. Another study by IHME projects their population to level off to 1.09 billion by 2100. Where's your projections for over 2 billion in 50 years? Despite being horrendously poor, India doesn't really have very high fertility rates at barely above replacement.

Jono said:

have you ever been to India?
If you have, then I am not so sure why you still have so much faith in India in its future ( always a distant goal ) development into a superpower.
that country is in a total mess due to internal inequality/division ( castes, racial, gender, language and religion ) , unchecked corruption at every levels that has become a way of life, low literacy rate, high birth rate, inefficient bureaucracy and a dysfunctional democracy governance system. AND COVID strikes.
in short, India boasts a lot, but delivers only a dismal little, if at all. Case in point is their mighty home built aircraft carrier which is still languishing half built in its construction yard.
China says little, but delivers much, and always keeping to its promises and on time.

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Kinda like the youtube channel the European where he seems to have an extreme amount of respect for India and sincerely believe that India is going to be next world supper power after China. One of the reasons I enjoy watching his channels despite his blind love for India is the acknowledgement that China is going to be powerful nation in the future and his continued bagging of the USA and in particular Joe Biden who I am possible he has a big hate boner for.
India does have the potential when it comes to is massive population, but that is all since in reality if they cannot harness that population and unite them for a single goal, like China as shown in the last 3 decades, then really, India cannot amount to much in the future since it doesn't matter if they have the potential, without direction, well it will end up like Taiwan with low water resources, low electricity capability and a technological mess where somethings are advanced but the rest is like mad max. At this current moment, India is so diseased ridden that this nation can potentially lose half its population in the next 2-3 years from Covid, plagues, Black Fungus, and all kinds of diseases that no other nation can possibly be able to save, because 1.4 billion cannot be vaccinated in 2-3 months (I mean there are 3k strains to worry about that cannot be covered by the current vaccines out there) let alone treated for almost every other diseases that is popping up from the dead bodies floating in the GANGES from crying out loud. At this point in time, China shouldn't and absolutely shouldn't bother trying to help rebuild India because not only there relationship is in the toilet (figuratively and literally) but what on earth can it possibly do to benefit China since India is basically an ungrateful bastard that will continue to be ungrateful no matter what, they are literally brats on steroids who cannot be reasoned with because the UK made them collectively blind in every sense of the world. Here is a thought, maybe for the BRICS, they should replace India with Iran since at least Iran has somewhat of a head screwed on. I am absolutely positive that the India government is intended for this pandemic to basically do population control which unfortunately has gone out of control. Talk about karma

emblem21 said:

Kinda like the youtube channel the European where he seems to have an extreme amount of respect for India and sincerely believe that India is going to be next world supper power after China. One of the reasons I enjoy watching his channels despite his blind love for India is the acknowledgement that China is going to be powerful nation in the future and his continued bagging of the USA and in particular Joe Biden who I am possible he has a big hate boner for

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Speaking of that guy has anyone noticed the European uses subliminal programming?

Richard Santos said:

it is not wise to discount the potential of 1.4 billion people, likely to be 2-2.5 billion+ in 50 years, because of issues it exhibits now. where might a foreign observer with passing familiarity with what is happening with china in 1971 have predicted where china might be in 2021?

If in 50 years India’s GDP per capita still remains 1/3 of china’s as it is now, Indian economy would likely be larger than that of the US. In reality, China has reached the point of development that would see development rate level off, where as india can still expect 2 or 3 decades of rapid growth, so the ratio of GDP per capita would decline. so India would almost certainly be physically and economically stronger than the US in 50 years. India being far closer than the US would be a far more prominent fixture in the china’s geopolitical world than the US.

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You mistake the reason for China's rise.

Population alone is insufficient for a country to become powerful. History is full of nations with large populations that end up disintegrating due to incompetent leadership. In 50 years, India might very well no longer exist as a political entity.

The single most important reason China has been successful for the past 70 years is because of the CPC. It was the CPC that united the country after half a century of fragmentation. It was the CPC that turned a pre-modern China into a technological and economic powerhouse.

paullee said:

Speaking of that guy has anyone noticed the European uses subliminal programming?

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Yes, it is a bit of thing these days, but I guess that is all he can do nowadays because really, even he doesn't talk much about India these days given how much fails have been going on over there. Its mostly about Bidens screw ups with I think I he very consumed by for a while

The ONLY reason that India would have any success in the future is that it is the largest developing country with the greatest economic growth-potential (read exploitation) in the Anal-sphere (ooops, I meant Anglo-sphere). Consequently, India is where the Anal-imperialists will invest increasing varieties of resources in order to attempt to stifle and displace China. If there’s is to be a massive shift of manufacturing by Anal corporations from China, it will be shifted to India. This would occur primarily because of India’s Anal worship (further evidenced by their smearing of cow-shit) and indoctrination into the Anal language, and secondarily because of their obsession with, and envy of, Chinese progress. India will, in effect become re-colonized, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see a future Anal Defense Treaty Organization that includes the US, England, Australia, NZ, and last, AND least, their brown-skinned lackeys, India, in which all the latest “5th generation” military Anal technologies will be shared and distributed throughout.

solarz said:

You mistake the reason for China's rise.

Population alone is insufficient for a country to become powerful. History is full of nations with large populations that end up disintegrating due to incompetent leadership. In 50 years, India might very well no longer exist as a political entity.

The single most important reason China has been successful for the past 70 years is because of the CPC. It was the CPC that united the country after half a century of fragmentation. It was the CPC that turned a pre-modern China into a technological and economic powerhouse.

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I do not mistake the actual reason for china’s rise. it is indeed the chinese communist party.

However, you mistake china’s actual reason for rising to be only possible reason for china to rise, and furthermore you think other country can’t rise with something like the chinese communist party.

The latter two viewa are something the chinese communist party depends on for its own security, but they are almost certainly fallacious.

Richard Santos said:

it is not wise to discount the potential of 1.4 billion people, likely to be 2-2.5 billion+ in 50 years, because of issues it exhibits now.

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If India's issues were actually being seriously addressed, its true potential would be high. However, as I have noted, the country only seems to care for its elites and completely ignores its vast lower castes. So a few of its people will be be reasonably well-off, and the vast majority will be destitute; this is the typical pattern of a third-world country that will continue to be mired in third-worldom.

As I have also noted, one indication that India is becoming a serious country is if they get organized enough to start installing sewer pipes throughout the country. If the Indians continue to procrastinate, forget it.

where might a foreign observer with passing familiarity with what is happening with china in 1971 have predicted where china might be in 2021?

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Actually, China in 1971 was sparking with potential, true potential: the people were literate, and all of the country's issues were being addressed.

Richard Santos said:

I do not mistake the actual reason for china’s rise. it is indeed the chinese communist party.

However, you mistake china’s actual reason for rising to be only possible reason for china to rise, and furthermore you think other country can’t rise with something like the chinese communist party.

The latter two viewa are something the chinese communist party depends on for its own security, but they are almost certainly fallacious.

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Nope, I'm discounting India's ability to rise within the next 50 years because I don't see anything that will allow them to do so.

Your fallacy lies in thinking they will rise just because they have a large population.