Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)

Nutrient said:

If India's issues were actually being seriously addressed, its true potential would be high. However, as I have noted, the country only seems to care for its elites and completely ignores its vast lower castes. So a few of its people will be be reasonably well-off, and the vast majority will be destitute; this is the typical pattern of a third-world country that will continue to be mired in third-worldom.

As I have also noted, one indication that India is becoming a serious country is if they get organized enough to start installing sewer pipes throughout the country. If the Indians continue to procrastinate, forget it.



Actually, China in 1971 was sparking with potential, true potential: the people were literate, and all of the country's issues were being addressed.

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Actually, In 1971 China was sparking with the potentials betokened by closing all of its higher educational institutions for 5 years, sending its cadre of trained professional managers, scientists and engineers to farms to raise pigs, and having the country’s number 2 most powerful person and nominal head of the armed forces supposedly tried to defect to the Soviet Union.

It's pretty simple: large population can be an advantage if properly utilised (aka expansion of low end industrial labour, economies of scale through large domestic market, negotiating power for foreign ToT)

However, India currently is not properly utilising that advantage. The reasons are various, from their dysfunctional democracy to their social/racial/religious fragmentation to their low literacy.

From what I foresee, India will not be able to change sufficiently to make use of that advantage in the next 30 years. Hence, they will not be a superpower.

Indian semi-democracy is in serious decline as a functioning system. It has been moving towards an authoritarian ethnostate since BJP assumed power the first time in 2000. The pace of this transition has picked up markedly since Modi took power. It is not altogether unlikely the transition will be completed in less than 10 years. Then Indian will likely attempt to follow the authoritarian trajectory of South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, and China.

Even if india does not become the world’s number 2 power in 30-50 years, it would still retain by far the greatest and most structurally built-in potential of any nation to rival China in raw national power in the long run. Long term regional, much less global, hegemony by China is not probable because India is on china’s door steps. If the USSR had been in Canada much of the world would not notice the Cold War between the USSR and the US.

chlosy said:

"Taiwan reunification will have been achieved around 2030-2040"

This is a most fascinating question for me, how to achieve reunification without war. Maybe a coup by the Taiwan military?

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Is it possible we could see something like a KMT/CCP merger?

From what I see, the ideological differences between the KMT and CCP has reduced a lot since Mao's death.

Nationalism is quite popular in China nowadays and the CCP isn't really against it. Heck, we even see the CCP moving away from ideological fanaticism, quelling the red culture movement led by Bo Xilai

On the other hand, communism is really unpopular in Taiwan/HK because of the history under Mao, where they are fed with sensational anti-communist news all the time.

A merger could allow the perceptions to reset and maybe even form a more cohesive governmental ideology, on top of reunification with Taiwan.

Richard Santos said:

Actually, In 1971 China was sparking with the potentials betokened by closing all of its higher educational institutions for 5 years, sending its cadre of trained professional managers, scientists and engineers to farms to raise pigs, and having the country’s number 2 most powerful person and nominal head of the armed forces supposedly tried to defect to the Soviet Union.

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By 1971, education in China had improved vastly***. So had the country's primary industry and infrastructure. China had enormous potential.

In contrast, India has a classic Third World society: a thin, rich layer ruling over huge populations of desperate people. You see this pattern frequently, in Africa, in South America, in much of Southeast Asia, and especially in India. Basically, wherever the British ruled. Perhaps the Indian elite are hoping that their 200 million will be enough to make India strong, but a more likely outcome is for the billion lower-caste people to become a serious drag. The probability is that the country will never break out of the Third World.


*** China's education in 1971. Of course, the West likes to say that China's Cultural Revolution wrecked the education system. . An example from the article makes this starkly clear. In just the first few years of the Revolution, from 1965 to 1972, the number of high school students increased by 34 times. (From 1950 to 1966, Jimo County's only high school averaged 88 graduates per year. By 1972, there were over 260 high schools in the county and over 1000 students in just the author's class. If high school is four years long, that means there were 3000 to 4000 students. 3000/88 is an increase of 34 times.)

sndef888 said:

Is it possible we could see something like a KMT/CCP merger?

From what I see, the ideological differences between the KMT and CCP has reduced a lot since Mao's death.

Nationalism is quite popular in China nowadays and the CCP isn't really against it. Heck, we even see the CCP moving away from ideological fanaticism, quelling the red culture movement led by Bo Xilai

On the other hand, communism is really unpopular in Taiwan/HK because of the history under Mao, where they are fed with sensational anti-communist news all the time.

A merger could allow the perceptions to reset and maybe even form a more cohesive governmental ideology, on top of reunification with Taiwan.

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In fact the left wing of KMT allied with CPC at the civil war. It's still a separate party, one of the 8 that form the National People's Congress of course under the leadership of CPC

Richard Santos said:

Then Indian will likely attempt to follow the authoritarian trajectory of South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, and China.

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Unlikely.

The key ingredient the Indians are missing is a monolithic society with a near universal consensus on what it means to be "Indian".

Between Singapore, SK, Taiwan and China, the closet analogue to the majority/minority composition to India is Singapore. However:
1. Singapore is tiny.
2. JKY was a once in a life time political talent.
3. Singapore was probably far more educated/literate when it became a nation in 1965.

With a nation as diverse as India, democracy is the ONLY way to hold it together. While BJP has shown significant authoritarian tendencies, it has shown scant signs of strategic planning, and have usually catered towards short terms electoral gains at the costs of vast mid and long term pains. De-monetization, GST, COVID electoral measures have all shown that myopia necessary to govern India.

Without long term planning, an authoritarian governance will only be good at extracting graft and benefits for the governing party without leaving a effective state in its wake.

There is a significant difference between a unified authoritarian state compare to a populist government with authoritarian tendencies. The former can take a brunt of dissent and chart a path towards communal good, the later has a tendency of catering to the lowest denominator and disenfranchising the minority, if only to stay in power, sewing seed for future violence and discontent.

Why do I think India will probably never break out of the Third World?

Because it is ruled by a thin layer of elites. If they allow the lower castes to become richer, the elites will lose their power. Hence the Brahmins and other high castes will do everything possible to keep the poor people poor. Hence the country is likely doomed to stay in the Third World.

sndef888 said:

Is it possible we could see something like a KMT/CCP merger?

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NO!

KMT has never been a bastion of strength and clairvoyance. There are some deep rooted American gilded age influences in their founding elites. KMT only shown some level of governance during their dictatorship days, while CCP has mostly managed it success udint collective governance by poliburo. Overall, CCP has shown far more dynamism and adaptiveness. KMT has demonstrate a level of ossification.

On the membership front, CCP has like 90 million active members. As of 2020 KMT has like 350k members. So if they merged there will be 1 KMT member for every 270 CCP members. Hardly competitive.

Anyone care to share what they think KMT could print to the party?

BTW, I think without China taking over, Taiwan will slowly morph into the equivalent of Puerto Rico.

That would be Chang-Kai-Chek's son Chiang Ching-kuo.
He studied in the Soviet Union.
He was responsible for building the infrastructure in Taiwan. He also ruthlessly cracked down any dissidents in the island.
He headed the secret police. He wasn't a nice guy I guess but he was effective.