How can CHina catch up with the West when its hands are tied?

yehe

Junior Member
Just a quick comment on size of economy, IMO the world ranking in 2010's will probably be EU #1, US #2, China #3, and Japan #4. (Western EU countries are lumped into Eurozone). Everyone under it will be significantly smaller in size (of economy).

Realistically, I don't expect China's economy to surpass the US until mid century. Militarily, I have a feeling that the Europeans are going to give it their best shot to reclaim technological superiority from the Americans in this century.

Prior to WWI, most scholars predicted that Europe would continue in its political structure of the time, well into the 20th century. WWI and WWII completely blew that away. So it's probably not a good idea to always assume current trends to continue until end of 21st century.

Europeans? Unlikely, lets not even start about thier internal rivalry, but just look at the fact that there is absolutely no major military threat left that could threaten the Europeans today, which means no major motivation for expensive cuting edge high tech military program, military program cooperation are also limited between a few selected nations in different grps within the EU and rivalry are common, which means waste of resources and small scale investment as well as production.

The only 2 countries that have both the motivation as well as the capabilities(economic, industrial, technological and political) are the USA and the PRC today, so these are the only 2 nations I expect to be able to become or continuie to be a military technological superpower into the next centry, only possible nation to catch up are the India, but currently it still lack the industrial base for that.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
That's what usually happens when you rely too much on the likes of BBC or story-tellers about moon rock slingshots as sources of knowledge, losing the ability to make simple sound argument. Resorting instead to cherry picking and dramatization of individual incidents to make conclusion.
What you should do instead is present some basic research on the rate of accidents on China's buildings and compare it with that in other countries.

I have had a interest in China for over 40yrs and have accessed more serious reading matter in the past. I even took the trouble to download a academic journal, written by their own academics, detailing the challenges facing China's economic development circa/2004/5,and it also discusses Chinas work related accidents. I just cant be bothered to dig it up as its on a different hardrive, and since removed.
Most recently we have concluded a Free Trade Deal with China, much to the dismay for a percentage of our population. China also wanted to send out workers for factories and bid for construction work. This necessitated reports of many shapes and sizes, white paper reports blue paper reports by academics were published, you name it it's been done, and I've read quite a few of them. Therefore I think I have a reasonable understanding where Chinas at.


One has to be selective when discussing China's warts. I must admit I was too early in suggesting something was funny about the building toppling over, however it does make a far more interesting read than if I was to reproduce a story say along these lines
" Council Authorities in Hubei province have determined that the reason for Mrs Lees outside toilet collapsing, was due to, poor construction techniques by the builder who had just returned from Shanghai where he lost his construction job in a massive layoff" :D

Just because Friedman made a ridiculous statement, doesn't mean to say all his thoughts are incorrect. If he says 1+1=2 are you going to disagree, because Friedman said it?::D
By the way Roswell has its firm belivers, from many walks of life, professionals bankers, academics. Are they handicapped in their professional capacity?:D
 
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crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Bladerunner. Friedman has a bad track record of prophecy based on his books. He didn't make just a ridiculous statement---he made an entire book about it (Japan going to war with the US in the future in 1991). By the way, his new book was negatively reviewed in Amazon by an US military officer, and one of those points was Friedman claiming that US forces are in the Middle East to prevent the rise of a new Middle East power, and that is not what the US soldier is in the Middle East for.

By the way Roswell has its firm belivers, from many walks of life, professionals bankers, academics. Are they handicapped in their professional capacity?

Please go ahead and name one who truly does.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Just a quick comment on size of economy, IMO the world ranking in 2010's will probably be EU #1, US #2, China #3, and Japan #4. (Western EU countries are lumped into Eurozone). Everyone under it will be significantly smaller in size (of economy).

Realistically, I don't expect China's economy to surpass the US until mid century. Militarily, I have a feeling that the Europeans are going to give it their best shot to reclaim technological superiority from the Americans in this century.

.

Well do a quick math will you ? .Right now China's economy is about 1/3 of US economy .Assuming 7 to 8% GDP growth rate compounded annualy Chinese economy double every 6 to 7 Year So it will take 12 to 13 years.
to reach Parity with US . Assuming again that US economy stay stagnant in next 10 years. Give and take 2 years roughly 2025

But China will reach parity sooner if the economy grow stronger than 7 to 8%
 
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bladerunner

Banned Idiot
You may couched your delight at someone tragedy with polite word but that is beside the point

The truth is building or bridge failure happen all the time. Let me remind you of last year Minnesota bridge failure
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Learning from bridge failure
Collapses such as the I-35W in Minneapolis give engineers the best clues about what not to do. Let's hope the lessons are remembered.
By By Henry Petroski
August 4, 2007
The collapse of an interstate highway bridge over the Mississippi River in Minneapolis took everyone, including engineers, by surprise.

We do not expect our bridges to drop out from beneath us, and their designers take great pains to ensure that they do not. Among the surest ways to obviate the failure of any structure is to anticipate all the different ways in which it can fail. Thus, in designing the Minneapolis bridge, engineers had to consider the consequence of a single steel member breaking, buckling or otherwise failing to carry its intended load.

Or as recently as 1960 the spectacular Tacoma bridge failure in Seattle
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Better still watch this Youtube
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Or the recent Paris Airport failure
buildings
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INVESTIGATIONS

Airport Roof Failure Blamed on Process
Report on fatal collapse of novel concourse at Paris airport charges systemic flaws in design 2/21/2005

By Peter Reina in Paris

In what amounts to a harsh indictment of the French process for executing complex public projects, investigators have identified two likely reasons for the partial roof collapse at the 650-meter-long concourse at Paris Charles de Gaulle airport last May 23. Systemic flaws in designing the technically difficult building contributed to deficiencies that led to the early morning failure that caused four deaths.

The government-appointed team identified two key failure mechanisms but cannot say which was the primary trigger. The design process was insufficiently rigorous for so complex a structure, investigators said at a press conference on Feb. 15. No detailed, independent analysis was done to check design models

And there you have it. Disasters in the west result in a full inquiry with the results made fully accessible to the public.Quite the opposite in China where a fair amount of the disaster inquires are swept under the carpet and not disclosed until pressure from outside sources are brought to bear.

egs 1/ School buildings in the Sichuan earthquake

2/ Workplace deaths during the construction facilities of Olympic Games,(only pressure through western press was their any admission of deaths during the construction of the Stadium)

3/ Follow the Links through the current building falling over story and it will take you to previous disasters, where Chinese admit to an underlying problem of less trained staff and corruption being the problem,and aren't unusual.

4/ Current Scandal= Wallboard:

5/ Pet Food/


6/ Melanine in the milk. Once again hushed up until exposed by New Zealand Partner, thus preventing a even bigger disaster.

Reasons such as China going through its industrial revolution and America and Britain were just as bad, is no excuse.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Futhermore my country is not industrialized in the same sense as America or Europe, but should it go down that path, I can bet you dollars to donuts, it wont be like that Victorian style utilized by China or America.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Bladerunner.
By the way, his new book was negatively reviewed in Amazon by an US military officer, and one of those points was Friedman claiming that US forces are in the Middle East to prevent the rise of a new Middle East power, and that is not what the US soldier is in the Middle East for.

If you are refering to the "Next Hundred Years" yes it would have to be a joke.

1/A serving military officer is highly unlikely to go against the govt stance on the matter is he? ( Im sure if he's hoping for promotion he wont)

2/ Depending on which side of the political spectrum one is on, we can come up with a myriad of reasons for Americas actions.

Please go ahead and name one who truly does.

Nope Im Stymied :eek:
but how about my wife's work aquaintance, A Amercian school teacher from Chesterton? Indiana, believes the American Moon landing never took place:)

or Judd Hirsch?
 
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Schumacher

Senior Member
....... I just cant be bothered to dig it up as its on a different hardrive, and since removed.
Most recently we have concluded a Free Trade Deal with China, much to the dismay for a percentage of our population. China also wanted to send out workers for factories and bid for construction work. .....

....By the way Roswell has its firm belivers, from many walks of life, professionals bankers, academics. Are they handicapped in their professional capacity?:D

So in other words, you don't have any hard data on the accident rate of China's buildings. You were just sensationalizing one incident. Good that you confirmed what I said.
I'm not surprised many of your population feel that way, from what I know, the main information sources there are also heavy on drama with little substance.
I wouldn't know about Roswell but when anyone had to resort to referring to a story-teller about moon rock attacks for a serious subject like economies, I have to say I do question their knowledge level on most kinds of subjects.
 

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
Well do a quick math will you ? .Right now China's economy is about 1/3 of US economy .Assuming 7 to 8% GDP growth rate compounded annualy Chinese economy double every 6 to 7 Year So it will take 12 to 13 years.
to reach Parity with US . Assuming again that US economy stay stagnant in next 10 years. Give and take 2 years roughly 2025

But China will reach parity sooner if the economy grow stronger than 7 to 8%

IMO US economic recovery will probably take place around 2012. Your opinion may vary.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
IMO US economic recovery will probably take place around 2012. Your opinion may vary.

I am not trying to debate you on this subject. Just few observation, I fail to see where is this source of growth, is going to come from. Individual and goverment is so severely hamstrung by debt that they are all saving their money instead of spending. The day of careless spending is over. In the next decade the need to refinance social wealth fare spending will skyrocket.

Innovation is becoming a much more crowded field and anything new can be replicated elsewhere so fast these days . There are 2 sources of innovation People and money but with such large destruction of wealth there will be less money for University endowment, research grant and Goverment program for important but can be delayed research

People . It used to be that US is the magnet for talented student all over the world. But with improving living condition and more restrictive immigration I believe the talent intake will be severely reduced.

In mean time slew of baby boom generation who done so much in creating wealth in America, will be retiring.

Domestic student these day opt for easier study and more lucrative carreer in Bussiness and Law

Unless US change priority and spend less on defence but that is politicaly impossible
 
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