How can CHina catch up with the West when its hands are tied?

bladerunner

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Schumacher said:
So in other words, you don't have any hard data on the accident rate of China's buildings. You were just sensationalizing one
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Whatever! Besides I’m not going to dig up data for a person who is displaying a remarkable inability to comprehend..
However Ill rephrase the post
The BBC in a in interview with experts in August2007 paint a damming picture of Chinese Construction standards.
Tao Hongyi, China director for the bridge builder Dorman Long Technology, says standards vary across the country. "Big projects in major cities are usually built to a high standard, but lesser projects in remote areas often slip under the radar,"
Is the recent collapse of a building, indicative of falling standards creeping into Chinese bigger cities where One foreign architect working in Beijing says developers would rather use cheap, shoddy building materials rather than more durable, but expensive, products, even on high-end projects.
"Many buildings in Beijing will have to be torn down and rebuilt in 10 years or so because they've been built so badly," he says.


Quote
“ the value of the real estate in Tokyo alone was said to be greater than entire US or the world”

Nice to meet someone who likes to read Playboy

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“I'm not surprised many of your population feel that way, from what I know, the main information sources there are also heavy on drama with little substance”

Wrong
I seriously doubt whether you have read any of the commissioned reports on the suitability of a Free Trade Agreement between China and New Zealand..

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“referring to a story-teller about moon rock attacks:”

Wrong

I never stated in my posts that I have read any of Friedman’s books. I merely introduced some comments reported in a magazine from a interview.. Now seeing you have a great difficulty accepting the validity of his views because he’s engrossed in the use of moon rocks, can you enlighten us to where he is wrong in his following statements which were the crux of his interview.?


1/“United States, in industrial power, produces more each year than China and Japan combined in industrial goods.”

2/“For example, from a military standpoint, if the entire world’s navies were arrayed against the United States Navy, it wouldn’t even be close. The United States controls all the waters of the world, which no nation in history has ever done before.”
 
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SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Hi Hendrick, like you I am also sceptical as to how the US will come into any meaningful recovery within the next decade if not two. The main reason for this is the likelihood that not only will the US have difficulty raising $ Denominated Finance from its usual sources, but it will soon have to start physically repaying its existing debts in cash or Kind, rather than simply roll it on in a new debt instrument.

That however is beside the point, as the reason for my post is to draw your attention to the compound interest maths. Please check again as a compound rate of 7.5% will double your Principal over 10 charging periods, ie a decade for GDP. A compound rate of 10% will achieve this in 7.5 charging periods.
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
One more thing- you also have to figure in RMB appreciation for any kind of meaningful calculation of when China's economy will reach the same size as America's. Whether the RMB appreciates on the dollar and to what degree can be a bit tricky to forecast.
 
crobato

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
bladerunner said:
Nope Im Stymied :eek:
but how about my wife's work aquaintance, A Amercian school teacher from Chesterton? Indiana, believes the American Moon landing never took place:)

or Judd Hirsch?
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Does not make them any right or wrong. Just shows you idiocy exists everywhere.

What is believed doesn't count. What is more important is the empirical record.

Mormons believe the Earth didn't exist past 10,000 years ago, and there are Mormons in high places too. Doesn't mean they're right.
 
crobato

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
adeptitus said:
IMO US economic recovery will probably take place around 2012. Your opinion may vary.
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We're already starting to see some economic recovery at this point, based on gains in stocks, manufacturing, and so on. We're headed into a soft landing and perhaps slow growth throughout the decade.

What we're not going to see is a rise in employment. The US will be besieged with unemployment and this is extremely sad for many people who are already out of work for more than a year. We got a labor force whose labor skills are corroding from unemployment.

Here's another clue. You can tell where nations are heading by the science and math scores of their children.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
SampanViking said:
Hi Hendrick, like you I am also sceptical as to how the US will come into any meaningful recovery within the next decade if not two. The main reason for this is the likelihood that not only will the US have difficulty raising $ Denominated Finance from its usual sources, but it will soon have to start physically repaying its existing debts in cash or Kind, rather than simply roll it on in a new debt instrument.

That however is beside the point, as the reason for my post is to draw your attention to the compound interest maths. Please check again as a compound rate of 7.5% will double your Principal over 10 charging periods, ie a decade for GDP. A compound rate of 10% will achieve this in 7.5 charging periods.
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Thanks for the correction I didn't bother to recheck it on my calculator My intention is just to draw attention that it is theoretically possible for Chinese economy to reach parity before 2050
 
S

Schumacher

Senior Member
bladerunner said:
......
The BBC in a in interview with experts in August2007 paint a damming picture of Chinese Construction standards.
Tao Hongyi, China director for the bridge builder Dorman Long Technology, says standards vary across the country. "Big projects in major cities are usually built to a high standard, but lesser projects in remote areas often slip under the radar,"
Is the recent collapse of a building, indicative of falling standards creeping into Chinese bigger cities where One foreign architect working in Beijing says developers would rather use cheap, shoddy building materials rather than more durable, but expensive, products, even on high-end projects.
"Many buildings in Beijing will have to be torn down and rebuilt in 10 years or so because they've been built so badly," he says.

......
I never stated in my posts that I have read any of Friedman’s books. I merely introduced some comments reported in a magazine from a interview.. Now seeing you have a great difficulty accepting the validity of his views because he’s engrossed in the use of moon rocks, can you enlighten us to where he is wrong in his following statements which were the crux of his interview.?


1/“United States, in industrial power, produces more each year than China and Japan combined in industrial goods.”

2/“For example, from a military standpoint, if the entire world’s navies were arrayed against the United States Navy, it wouldn’t even be close. The United States controls all the waters of the world, which no nation in history has ever done before.”
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Mr Tao actually made a fair comment that standards vary which can be said of China & any other places. However, I'm not surprised you fall for the old trick of some unnamed 'expert' saying something dramatic. Plenty of drama and spin but little substance, something I'm sure you're familiar with. lol

Go read again the link I posted and others' posts here which I mostly agree which predict China to overtake US economy/industrial power soon to see what's wrong with Friedman's statements.
Same goes the military aspect. When the economy is overtaken, it'll be hard for the military to sustain the lead.
 
M

Mashan

New Member
crobato said:
We're already starting to see some economic recovery at this point, based on gains in stocks, manufacturing, and so on. We're headed into a soft landing and perhaps slow growth throughout the decade.

What we're not going to see is a rise in employment. The US will be besieged with unemployment and this is extremely sad for many people who are already out of work for more than a year. We got a labor force whose labor skills are corroding from unemployment.

Here's another clue. You can tell where nations are heading by the science and math scores of their children.
Click to expand...

Also you can gauge where a country is heading by researching the fields freshman are signing up for, we are not creating enough engineers and scientists. Open market is good but an open market that reward quick money short term thinking and ignore long term social goals is your worst enemy.
 
bladerunner

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Schumacher said:
some unnamed 'expert' saying something dramatic. lol
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. Unless you confine yourself to reading academic publications, it’s a phrase even higher calibre magazines resort to. I also note some very good posters here cite material that contain phrases such " an unnamed petagon/Whitehouse official said such n such.......without as much as a rebuke from you.
Your posts also contain prejudgements, not exactly a scholarly approach is it?



Go read again the link I posted and others' posts here which I mostly agree which predict China to overtake US economy/industrial power soon to see what's wrong with Friedman's statements.
Same goes the military aspect. When the economy is overtaken, it'll be hard for the military to sustain the lead.[/
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QUOTE]

Once again you are skirting the question, which is concerned with the statements related to the CURRENT position. The use of the word 'soon', is not exactly definitive.Rather strange for someone who expects preciseness in ones post
Note nowhere in my posts did I ever suggest China would'nt surpass Americas economic output.
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