Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

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Brumby

Major
well when i say "plan" i actually mean a road map of how everything you have set out will be achieved. and personally i have some reservations about your plan B. keep in mind that we are dealing with a loosely organized mass of individuals here, not an army that is controlled by a solid chain of command. to persuade ten thousand individuals of such sweeping changes to the final objective of OC, consisting of so many points that can be disagreed upon, will simply fracture the movement. for example i am pretty sure "top 3-5 list of economic issues" is something that will take weeks if not months to sort out even amongst a dozen persons, let alone thousands of them lol.

as for occupation of government offices, I have raised this as a possibility because it is such a natural progression from a failure of peaceful occupation of public places, which is a very real possibility here. it has been rejected outright as a strategy, but what is there to prevent those extremist elements within the ranks of protesters to instigate such attempt? people do stupid things "out of frustration", i know because i drive to work during rush hour everyday.

Firstly I am making this up as I go along as I am just an observer of unfolding events. I agree this movement is too fragmented. There are too many disparate group with student, OC and pro-democracy thrown into the mix all with their own agenda and objectives. Given that the leaders of each group have surfaced we know who they are. The movement should come together quickly to organise themselves into a more coherent group as unity is strength. They need to develop quickly a common message and set of demand and together work out a roadmap going forward. Immediate objectives should be :
organised themselves with assigned responsibilities of spokesperson, messaging, communication, support at el. They should establish a command and control centre for decision making, information management and deployment of resources. This means a chain of command with the appropriate communication protocol, means and redundancy especially in view of potential lock down. They should concentrate on choke points to maximise effect. Plan for a long haul including rotating resources rather than wholesale concentration as latter will just burn out momentum quickly. Use this situation to learn how to work together to better prepare for the next round. If they can't even come together as a group, they will not be able to elect a CE of their choice. Being in opposition is very different from being in administration. If they can't even identify and agree on 3 - 5 key economic policies that need fixing, I would have to ask what economic ills are they protesting over. An elected CE is not superman and even superman can't fix what is not known.
 

Brumby

Major
For anyone who wants to see this protest go down, now it's your happy day. Gangs of anti-OC protestors are appearing at each sites bashing, vandalizing, sexually harassing, attacking the protestors. The police are using minimal effort in controlling the situation and not making many arrests. All the attacks are initiated by the anti-OC.

Some said these are organized by the government and the police knew of it. Regardless, now I am entirely disappointed by the HKSAR and HKPF because they had resorted to thuggish methods to treating high school students and this group of peaceful people.

One anti-OC basher even said to the females "being at the protest you should've prepared yourself to be sexually harassed"

If this is happening on the ground, we are seeing a shift into the next phase of the protest. In a way this should be expecting and anticipating planned disruption. If they are organised I would not be surprised they are off uniform trained personnel. As Putin puts it, being on leave they just happen to walk off base.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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For anyone who wants to see this protest go down, now it's your happy day. Gangs of anti-OC protestors are appearing at each sites bashing, vandalizing, sexually harassing, attacking the protestors. The police are using minimal effort in controlling the situation and not making many arrests. All the attacks are initiated by the anti-OC.

Some said these are organized by the government and the police knew of it. Regardless, now I am entirely disappointed by the HKSAR and HKPF because they had resorted to thuggish methods to treating high school students and this group of peaceful people.

One anti-OC basher even said to the females "being at the protest you should've prepared yourself to be sexually harassed"


All sounds like the spin of the professional provocateurs to me.
It is one thing to protest outside Government Buildings during a holiday, it is another to try a disrupt a busy retail district like Mong Kok on a work day! (where are they blocking anyway, Nathan/Argyle?)
Even the BBC is admitting that many of the local residents and traders are very unhappy about the protest disruption and I am not surprised that some; esp the market traders, taxi and mini bus drivers have taken matters into their own hands. Insulting them by calling them CCP stooges is really not a good idea.

On the subject of rent a mob, I do wonder how many of the hard core protesters are foreign nationals flown in foe the event. I ask as I see tactics employed by veteran movement members and which would not be within the experience of local kids.
 

Franklin

Captain
For anyone who wants to see this protest go down, now it's your happy day. Gangs of anti-OC protestors are appearing at each sites bashing, vandalizing, sexually harassing, attacking the protestors. The police are using minimal effort in controlling the situation and not making many arrests. All the attacks are initiated by the anti-OC.

Some said these are organized by the government and the police knew of it. Regardless, now I am entirely disappointed by the HKSAR and HKPF because they had resorted to thuggish methods to treating high school students and this group of peaceful people.

One anti-OC basher even said to the females "being at the protest you should've prepared yourself to be sexually harassed"

I think most in the anti-OC crowd are pro-livelihood rather than pro-government or pro-China. You have the anti-OC people saying that the whole demonstration was organized by the CIA. Now the pendulum is starting to swing the other way and the OC crowd is accusing the government of using a rent a mob. Its the same thing. The people who protest in the OC movement have legitimate grievances but so does the anti-OC crowd.
 
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xiabonan

Junior Member
Recently Beijing banned group tours to HK out of safety concerns.

It's the "golden week" in China now, the National Day holidays.

This year's National Day holiday saw a sudden surge in tourists to South Korea. There's estimated to be 160,000 tourists to S.Korea. Many shopping malls in Seoul are flooded with Chinese tourists. Some even had queues an hour before it opens doors. Many Korea cosmetics products are sold out. There's traffic jam and large crowds of tourists everywhere in Seoul.

If one average these tourists spend 2000 USD per head (hotel, restaurants, shopping), it's already 320 million USD. And I would say this is a lower end estimate.

In economics there's a term called the multiplier effect. This basically means that any spending will induce further spending though the amount will be lesser than each previous one. So this 320 million USD could easily mean billions in terms of induced spending.
 

delft

Brigadier
There are 160,000 in the streets at one point.

Also, HK will not become independent because that's not the case.

Furthermore, I must remind you guys that the prisoners you're talking about are high school students. I don't know about you, but I feel sick to the stomach just to think some people can advocate locking up high school students.
So that is about 2 %.

And I too don't expect more than a few prisoners. This is not Chili 1973.
 

xiabonan

Junior Member
I wonder what will the Western papers comment on these remarks...."authoritarian governments backing each other up?"

But I'm pretty sure if they make such remarks they're going to get sued by PM Lee haha

ON OCCUPY CENTRAL
Mr Lee was also asked about his perspectives on the Occupy Central movement in Hong Kong and its implications on China and the region. There will be issues that will come up from time to time, he said, and they have to be resolved by Hong Kong and China - in a way which is in the interests of Hong Kong, and doesn't hurt the interests of China and is in accordance to the law.

"These are peaceful demonstrations - that's good. It's not in Tiananmen, they are not in Zhongnanhai, that lowers the temperature," he noted. "But even then, its a difficult situation for the Chief Executive and his team to manage and I'm quite sure there's a large team on the Chinese side in Beijing watching this very carefully, very very carefully."

"You are looking at Hong Kong matters - Hong Kong looking after Hong Kong. These are things best of all Hong Kong can sort out for itself," he said. "But if other groups get involved and use this to pressure China or to change China, or, I read international newspapers, former activists from Tiananmen have come to help the students. I don't think they need such help. Or the students who were doing the Sunflower movement in Taipei also coming to compare notes, teach you how to occupy something also coming to occupy something. I don't think such help is in anyway helpful. I think that will only make things much more complicated."

These comments are by Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

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bd popeye
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
I am actually serious because what you are suggesting sets up a structural dislocation of the political landscape and in politics that is a nuclear option. I will lay out the premise of my assertion.

Hong Kong Basic Law sets out certain protection, including :
The freedom of the person of Hong Kong residents shall be inviolable. No Hong Kong resident shall be subjected to arbitrary or unlawful arrest, detention or imprisonment. The procedures for amendments to the Basic Law are laid out in Article 159. Any amendments require the approval of the Chief Executive of HK, two thirds of the Legislative Council of HK members and two thirds of the deputies representing Hong Kong in the NPC.

Let’s set out the scenario that for whatever reason, the HK government decides to round up the lot. They have to be charged within 72 hours or be released. There are not enough jails for temporary detention.
I am not a lawyer but my interpretation is that any lawful detention has to be physically within the territory as governed by the HKSAR administration. You can’t simply move them across to the Mainland. That is unlawful because it is a cross border move and under the one country two systems, it is a different legal jurisdiction. That is why there is such a thing as extradition to facilitate legal transfers between territories. China cannot conduct extradition on them because there is no legal basis to do so unless laws are broken in China while physically in China. You can try amending the Basic Law to cover this (long shot) but under current political scenario, there are insufficient 2/3 majority in LegCo. to pass as this is a very controversial move. I am assuming there are no emergency provisions to do this under Executive power. I seriously doubt you can siphon people off cross border even under emergency powers. This leaves a remaining option of declaring HK’s security under threat because there is a break down in law and order and HK has become unmanageable. It becomes a defence issue which Beijing can then call in the PLA and whatever else they decide. For political cover, such a drastic move requires matching developments like uncontained rioting or total breakdown of law and order.

Your suggestion is expedient but there is a procedural process and legal framework in HK that still rest on the notion of rule of law, transparency and accountability.

As you say, we are not constitutional lawyers, so I don't really see what the point would be for us to get into a technical discussion about detailed legal frameworks and interpretations that often tie even top lawyers and judges in knots.

However, one well thought out and reasons reply deserve another, so here goes.

Firstly, I think a few obvious points need to made clear. Hong Kong is governed by one country two systems.

Since Hong Kong is Chinese sovereign territory, I do not see how extradition procedures would apply.

Any movement of prisoners between prisons within a country would just be covered by normal prisoner transfer procedures and regulations. Or at least that is how government lawyers would argue if they wished to make that move and were challenged.

Secondly, there may be a time limit on how long police can hold someone before charging them, but there is no such limit that I am aware of, of how long police can remand people in custody pending their allotted court date to contest those charges.

It is certainly not unheard of for people to spend years in jail in western democracies waiting for their day in court. And that's just from normal backlogs. In a mass arrest incident, a wait time of months to years is certainly not unreasonable.

Lastly, it should be noted that Hong Kong's special status and privileges are granted by Beijing, and can be changed or revoked by Beijing just as any Soverign government may amend or revoke any existing domestic law so long as the constitutional requirements are met.

Stripping HK of all its rights and privileges would be an unnecessary extreme move, but it would not be beyond the realm of possiblity for Beijing to strip away some fringe rights that would not impact on many people's normal lives, just to make a point, with the obvious unspoken understanding that it could strip away more rights and privileges if it sees fit.

That is pretty much the trump card that Beijing could play to sidestep any legal loop holes any lawyers might find to oppose what they want. The questions really would be whether Beijing sees it as necessary to employ such a crude instrument to get its way.

Up to now, it has opted to try and work within HK's legal framework to get things done. However, Beijing's patience is not infinite, and China's leaders may simply wonder why they should continue to honour HK's local lawers when the anti-Beijing elements seems to care so little breaking the very laws they claim to champion.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I wonder what will the Western papers comment on these remarks...."authoritarian governments backing each other up?"

But I'm pretty sure if they make such remarks they're going to get sued by PM Lee haha

These comments are by Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I looks like the organisers of the occupy movement are starting to show their true colours.

Making baseless, inflammatory, and frankly, retarded claims that anyone who has a problem with their little stunt is a Beijing hired goon, betrays their prejudices and intentions quite well.

Getting outside 'help' is also a sure fire way to massively increase the chances of escalation and violence.

The mood of a mob can turn in an instant, and all it would take is a few hotheads or idiots to attack police or other citizens to provoke a response that sets off a chain reaction that leads to mass fighting and huge casualties.

The leaders and organisers of this farce should take special care that their movement does not get co-opted or hijacked by other groups who just want to cause trouble for Beijing and couldn't care less what happens to ordinary people in Hong Kong. Unless they themselves are in it from the start.
 

delft

Brigadier
OT, re #588
I remember an American hacker who showed that the computer connections with the internet of US companies were unsafe without criminally profiting from the leaks. He was kept in jail without a computer, not even one without an internet connection - apparently the authorities thought he could use magic with one :) - accused of causing damage - the work of protecting their internet connection the companies had avoided to do - and was remanded in custody until he agreed to a plee bargain for four years.
 
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