Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

As a preface, I admittedly have no special insight into the demonstrators nor the personal dynamic of those living in HK on a daily basis.

From the grievances put forward and discussion that has gone on, the main objective is control over HK Elections from the top down, allowing the locals to influence policy through their vote. Democracy in action. I get that.

Where it gets tricky (and part of the calculus for Beijing I'm sure) is what happens afterwards? And I'm not talking about concern over a radical independence agenda or anything like that... I'm simply talking local issues that have been raised as the reason why control over elections needs to change. I.e.: Land Development, Housing, Healthcare, Education, Economic Mobility etc.

The problem in my view is the context in which I see and hear these issues being raised. In each case it is always linked back to mainland immigrants or visitors etc as the root cause, and the view that a HK Government accountable to Beijing, cannot deal with the above issues or do so in a way that would be found acceptable. But what policy changes would a OC minded Government put in place that would solve their problems? Restrict Immigration of Mainlanders to HK? Restrict the purchase of Land and Investment in local business to Hong Kongese first (or only)? I think these are the concerns mainlanders and Beijing have when they see this type of event in the context of past and present rhetoric within HK.

Beijing governs HK from the mindset of one nation (China) and one people (Chinese). From what I've seen and heard, I don't know that HK is truly of the same one nation, one people, mindset yet. Further de-linking HK from the Mainland & Central Government I think would be the first step on a rocky road at this point in time. Best to work within the system, proposing specific policy initiatives and doing so in a manner that is not divisive to Chinese citizens, wherever they may hail from.

This all being IMHO and from someone on the outside who watches China at a more International level.

Cheers

Zool said:

As a preface, I admittedly have no special insight into the demonstrators nor the personal dynamic of those living in HK on a daily basis.

From the grievances put forward and discussion that has gone on, the main objective is control over HK Elections from the top down, allowing the locals to influence policy through their vote. Democracy in action. I get that.

Where it gets tricky (and part of the calculus for Beijing I'm sure) is what happens afterwards? And I'm not talking about concern over a radical independence agenda or anything like that... I'm simply talking local issues that have been raised as the reason why control over elections needs to change. I.e.: Land Development, Housing, Healthcare, Education, Economic Mobility etc.

The problem in my view is the context in which I see and hear these issues being raised. In each case it is always linked back to mainland immigrants or visitors etc as the root cause, and the view that a HK Government accountable to Beijing, cannot deal with the above issues or do so in a way that would be found acceptable. But what policy changes would a OC minded Government put in place that would solve their problems? Restrict Immigration of Mainlanders to HK? Restrict the purchase of Land and Investment in local business to Hong Kongese first (or only)? I think these are the concerns mainlanders and Beijing have when they see this type of event in the context of past and present rhetoric within HK.

Beijing governs HK from the mindset of one nation (China) and one people (Chinese). From what I've seen and heard, I don't know that HK is truly of the same one nation, one people, mindset yet. Further de-linking HK from the Mainland & Central Government I think would be the first step on a rocky road at this point in time. Best to work within the system, proposing specific policy initiatives and doing so in a manner that is not divisive to Chinese citizens, wherever they may hail from.

This all being IMHO and from someone on the outside who watches China at a more International level.

Cheers

Click to expand...

Thanks for the input. I think it starts with and the people will be picking someone who they feel will at least answer their calls rather than complete ignore. Maybe also the same time the CE will explain what sorts of policies he'll put in place etc.

An example of the reasons to why the CE needs to be replaced is this one: When HKTV attempted to get licensed to be another channel in HK, the HKSAR government said no, literally without a reason at all. It's a big WTF moment for HK people because there's pretty much no real reasons offered, and there aren't exactly any possible reasons anyone can think of(they had all the pre-requisites)


I always feel the whole time it isn't about sovereignty. It's just domestic politics and the amount of Beijing influence there are. Most of those issues could've been addressed in some way if there are a lot more direct influence by the people and in some areas less influences from Beijing.

Also, please don't feel intimidated because you have less knowledge about HK's domestic issues. Even I'm not all that familiar myself because there are a lot of other things too and either you can't follow it all, and honestly I don't mind if you know a lot or not. It's just when some people who knows nothing decides they can say anything they want and make it gold, or turn it into some anti-China conspiracy and when you try to explain it's not those stuffs, they just reject what you have to say and stick by their bias. It's laughable because how loud and confident they feel they can be with their voices and not worry about how wrong they can be. I mean, isn't it obvious that if you don't know something too well, you shouldn't have too much things to say about it already?

shen said:

a friend posted this clip.

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Click to expand...

Looks like a few of the protesters instigated the conflict with the police and got what they deserve.

Another piece from a website:

[轉自高登]
請覺得今次佔中影響你地正常生活嘅人睇睇諗諗
For those who thinks OC is affecting your daily life please take a look and think about these:

298呎七成實用住宅300萬。
298 feet living space == $3million
150呎套房月租$6000。
150feet suite monthly rent $6000
週街得金鋪藥房。
Chinese medicine stores everywhere
天價鋪租。
Expensive as sh!t rent
老字號執笠。
long-time business closing
大陸人週街痾屎不穫檢控。
mainland Chinese individuals defecating everywhere without persecution
唔敢生仔因為想買奶粉要同人搶。
can't have a child before have to fight for baby milk formula
唔敢結婚因為冇屋住。
can't marry because no place to live
學位不足。
no academic enrollment spots
平日紅磡過海去中環要個半鐘。
half an hour to cross from hung hom to central
地鐵年年加價大陸人有半價優惠。
MTR price raising while mainlanders gets half off
週街運水貨拖喼黨。
gangs of grey importers with their suitcases(usually baby milk formula)
放假出街日日要同大陸佬迫。

年年交稅養一班無工返遊手好閑公園飲燒酒嘅廢柴。
pay tax every year for a bunch of unemployed drinking "burning wine" at public parks
年年交稅養一班攞綜援唔洗返工覺得一年冇得去一兩次旅行嘅家長。
pay tax every year for a bunch of unemployed parents who receives social safety net and feel they can't go vacation twice
年年交稅養一班覺得社會欠咗佢，學校派位唔方便嘅新移民。
pay tax every year for a bunch of new immigrants who feels the society owes them because the schools gives their kids inconvenient locations
年年交稅養一班一來港就想攞綜援嘅新移民。
pay tax every year for a bunch of new immigrants who comes to hk just for social safety net
建設以地產項目為目標嘅鐵路提高地產價值。
building railways at properties area to increase land values
降低蔬菜農藥入口標準。
lowered regulatory standards for fertilizers used on crops
。
。
。
乜你覺得我地宜家嘅生活好正常咩？？？
so you think such living is normal??
如果你覺得返少一兩個禮拜學，你小朋友會影響學習，請你想一想你將來小朋友未必有學位，連學習機會都冇，讀完書返幾份工死慳死抵去供一間屋仔三十年。
if missing 1-2 weeks of school can affect your child, please think how your child may not have academic spots in the future, thus not even a chance to advance education, and to finish education just to work several jobs and save everything to pay of a 30-year mortgage for a small unit.
如果你覺得阻到你做生意，請你想一想下年下下年你未必交得起租。
if you think this is affecting your business, think about the future years of how you may not be able to pay those rents
如果你覺得阻到你返工，請你想一想以你份人工，以現時樓價及租金升幅，你一世都買唔到樓，公屋又冇得你住。因為物價高手停口停的關係，你返緊一份你完全唔想返嘅工，無得選擇唔敢轉工。
if you feel this is affecting you going to work, please think about how your salary and the inflating house prices and rent prices. you can never get an apartment while you can't have public housing neither. all because high-price dealers, you're working at a job you don't want, but also can't switch away
如果你覺得阻塞交通，請你宜家立即走出屋企門口，睇下宜家過海去中環要幾耐！
if you feel this is holding up traffic, then leave your house now and try going to central now!

Click to expand...

Only a couple of remarks:

* a more criminal regime, i.e. Pinochet after his coup, stored many detainees in a stadium, in a sail training ship and other non-prisons. I don't think that in an extreme case it would be necessary to export prisoners to the main land except perhaps for humanitarian reasons. I'm pretty use we will never know.

* If HK were to become independent, take the very hypothetical case, and Beijing didn't allow trade with the place, it would eventually return to be the fishing village it was in 1847.

I will patiently await the outcome of this episode. Just one question: how large a percentage of the 7 milion people in HK is active in this matter and how large a percentage is not interested at all?

Addendum: They talk about tens of thousands of protestors, that's about 1%.

delft said:

Only a couple of remarks:

* a more criminal regime, i.e. Pinochet after his coup, stored many detainees in a stadium, in a sail training ship and other non-prisons. I don't think that in an extreme case it would be necessary to export prisoners to the main land except perhaps for humanitarian reasons. I'm pretty use we will never know.

* If HK were to become independent, take the very hypothetical case, and Beijing didn't allow trade with the place, it would eventually return to be the fishing village it was in 1847.

I will patiently await the outcome of this episode. Just one question: how large a percentage of the 7 milion people in HK is active in this matter and how large a percentage is not interested at all?

Addendum: They talk about tens of thousands of protestors, that's about 1%.

Click to expand...

There are 160,000 in the streets at one point.

Also, HK will not become independent because that's not the case.

Furthermore, I must remind you guys that the prisoners you're talking about are high school students. I don't know about you, but I feel sick to the stomach just to think some people can advocate locking up high school students.

Brumby said:

It is important that the OC movement and students don't cross the line i.e. forced occupation of government offices. That will not go down well in my mind.

I think the movement needs to have a plan B. Too much emphasis is placed on the issue of filtered candidates. I do agree that the current official proposal is too lop sided to reflect genuine universal suffrage. Rather than focussing on the problem, the energy should be focussed on working out acceptable solutions that can move the issue forward. The process is enshrined within the Basic Law and so any solution has to be found within that framework. There are two areas that directly affect the outcome : (i) Legco. elections and (ii) method in selecting candidates by Legco.

Plan B in my view includes the following :
(i) 2017 CE election methodology has come and gone. Politics on both sides would suggest changes at this stage is untenable. The protest has carried a message. If there is no build up of support from the general population, then it is time to call it a day and use whatever residual momentum to focus on 2022.
(ii) Part of the de-escalation demand should be securing agreement towards setting up a body to negotiate candidate nomination within Legco. from current method. For example, rather than meeting percentage terms, a fairer system is that the highest votes of the top three candidates as nominated by Legco. gets on to the list. It would be a one vote per committee member of the 1200 member body.
(iii) Have a top 3 or 5 list of economic issues that need addressing being considered by the government. If policy changes are agreed, then CY is not the problem it is just execution. Getting CY fired may be a sense of satisfaction, it doesn't deal with the perceived economic problems.

Click to expand...

well when i say "plan" i actually mean a road map of how everything you have set out will be achieved. and personally i have some reservations about your plan B. keep in mind that we are dealing with a loosely organized mass of individuals here, not an army that is controlled by a solid chain of command. to persuade ten thousand individuals of such sweeping changes to the final objective of OC, consisting of so many points that can be disagreed upon, will simply fracture the movement. for example i am pretty sure "top 3-5 list of economic issues" is something that will take weeks if not months to sort out even amongst a dozen persons, let alone thousands of them lol.

as for occupation of government offices, I have raised this as a possibility because it is such a natural progression from a failure of peaceful occupation of public places, which is a very real possibility here. it has been rejected outright as a strategy, but what is there to prevent those extremist elements within the ranks of protesters to instigate such attempt? people do stupid things "out of frustration", i know because i drive to work during rush hour everyday.

For anyone who wants to see this protest go down, now it's your happy day. Gangs of anti-OC protestors are appearing at each sites bashing, vandalizing, sexually harassing, attacking the protestors. The police are using minimal effort in controlling the situation and not making many arrests. All the attacks are initiated by the anti-OC.

Some said these are organized by the government and the police knew of it. Regardless, now I am entirely disappointed by the HKSAR and HKPF because they had resorted to thuggish methods to treating high school students and this group of peaceful people.

One anti-OC basher even said to the females "being at the protest you should've prepared yourself to be sexually harassed"

To be frank that person's not entirely wrong.

HK's protests, so far, are so civilised, so orderly, so polite--that people tend to forget that this is a protest after all.

Anywhere else in the world, things turn out ugly.

Tunisia, Egypt, Ukraine, China's anti-Japan protests, etc etc--the better ones resulted in sexual harassment, burning down of properties, massive group fights, the worst cases cause mass killings and gang rapes, turn to bloody civil wars, and then there's anything and everything in between.

I'm not trying to compare HK to these places, in fact I hold high regards about the students restrain displayed so far.

What I'm saying is that, it's pretty natural if some of these unfortunate incidents happen. After all even for HK, not everybody is so well educated and well mannered I believe. Especially when these anti-OC HKers mostly consist of much older generations who might not have gone through the same quality education the young ones got.

Another thing you have to consider is that these people are not there to talk out nicely--they have probably endured and accumulated their anger and frustration for the entire duration of this protests already. It's just now that they can't stand it any more.

Another key difference is that the students are able to display a high degree of restraint, is also partly due to the fact that their finances are not affected. I mean, "true" direct election or not, they still get their money from parents. They're protesting for a "more noble" cause.

But for these anti-OC people, the OC protest has really affected their businesses and livelihood I believe.

I like to put myself in the shoes of others to try to emphasize with them. I emphasized with the students, and now I can emphasize with these anti-OC people as well.

Imagine your life is already hard and on a decline. You were expecting that this National Day holiday could bring in extra revenue for you. And this protest happened. You think to yourself, "why are these people affecting my life? I can't make money because of this! They say that this is for a greater cause and that the pain will only be temporary, and that HK's future will be better. But I can't see why the Beijing government will compromise? If they won't compromise, then isn't these people simply wasting time and stopping me from making money? They promise a better future but nobody can see that future. Should I bet on a future promised by a group of 17-year-olds, or should I focus on making money at this moment first?"

Then maybe at first you're only slightly irritated but gave the students benefit of doubt. But soon you realise there seemed to be no end to this. Your life seemed to be backtracking. You can't go to places. You can't use the roads. Your bank's closed. Some of the shops you want to go are closed because of OC. Then you get increasingly angry.

Finally tonight's scene happened.

A few days ago when I was on Chinese forums all that I've seen is people assuming this whole OC thing is "US backed, a US conspiracy to disgrace the Chinese government and to make us look bad"

Tonight as the anti-OC people started to show up, as soon as they show up I see Western journalists posting on Twitter that this is "thugs hired by the CCP to make OC movement look bad and to discredit the movement"

Seriously, what's wrong with people? Can some people actually grow a brain and stop just assuming stupid stuff like these without concrete evidence?

They blame each other, but to me these two mentalities are one and the same--ugly to the core.