Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

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Brumby

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HK achieved its status because it was a bridgehead for trading with mainland. This is no longer relevant as direct trade have been implemented. Yuan will eventually become a free floating currency if the trend of its internationalization continues. Which city will be the primary exchange for yuan denominated financial instruments is for Beijing to decide.

I have to disagree with that statement. HK was well established long before mainland China opened itself to the world. HK like Singapore is a major financial centre partly because they inherited from the British a legacy framework of legal regime that is very important in the financial industry plus the environment and people skills to make it work.
 

Brumby

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True. But the fact that Beijing is making a significant effort is a sign of its resolve. Why make such an effort especially when HK is already available unless Beijing wants to promote more direct trade.

Making an effort is very different from competing with an established regime.
 

texx1

Junior Member
I have to disagree with that statement. HK was well established long before mainland China opened itself to the world. HK like Singapore is a major financial centre partly because they inherited from the British a legacy framework of legal regime that is very important in the financial industry plus the environment and people skills to make it work.

Legal frame work is very important as well as skills of its citizens. But the number one priority for financial industry everywhere is clients. Hong Kong attracted western clients and Chinese mainland clients after 1980 when Deng xi peng started the liberalization of Chinese economy because its good fortunate of being next to mainland as well as the only developed free port on Chinese coast.
 

joshuatree

Captain
HK achieved its status because it was a bridgehead for trading with mainland. This is no longer relevant as direct trade have been implemented. Yuan will eventually become a free floating currency if the trend of its internationalization continues. Which city will be the primary exchange for yuan denominated financial instruments is for Beijing to decide.

Direct trade has been implemented for quite some time already. What China lacks that HK still has is what others have said, a level of transparency and legal framework that international companies factor in. You may say as long as there is money to be made, they will come. But that has a ceiling where the costs will outweigh the benefits at some point for any corporation. Then things plateau and may even slide backwards. Let's not forget other countries in the area are not stagnant, they will vie for the business too. Chinese corporations are starting to stretch out to other countries but they will soon learn what works within China won't necessarily work elsewhere because the level of transparency and legal framework elsewhere will make their method of operation unacceptable. So until the day when all Chinese cities have the same level of legal framework and transparency, HK will still have an edge. As quality of life improves, people in other Chinese cities will naturally start demanding the same. Look at how the lack of food quality control, pollution control, and legal recourse would bring up discontent in other Chinese cities. Why do so many Chinese who can afford it try to find a way to emigrate? To protect their assets in places with stronger transparency and legal frameworks?

Beijing actually will have greater ease in convincing Taiwan if it affords more flexibility.
 

texx1

Junior Member
Because given the size of the country and population, it can easily support both.

Sure it can. But that still means HK will be getting 50% of the business while before Shangha FTZ, it could have gotten 100%. This is an over simplification. The percentage won't be likely that. Still any businesses gained by Shanghai could mean potentially business lost in HK.
 

Blitzo

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Direct trade has been implemented for quite some time already. What China lacks that HK still has is what others have said, a level of transparency and legal framework that international companies factor in. You may say as long as there is money to be made, they will come. But that has a ceiling where the costs will outweigh the benefits at some point for any corporation. Then things plateau and may even slide backwards. Let's not forget other countries in the area are not stagnant, they will vie for the business too. Chinese corporations are starting to stretch out to other countries but they will soon learn what works within China won't necessarily work elsewhere because the level of transparency and legal framework elsewhere will make their method of operation unacceptable. So until the day when all Chinese cities have the same level of legal framework and transparency, HK will still have an edge. As quality of life improves, people in other Chinese cities will naturally start demanding the same. Look at how the lack of food quality control, pollution control, and legal recourse would bring up discontent in other Chinese cities. Why do so many Chinese who can afford it try to find a way to emigrate? To protect their assets in places with stronger transparency and legal frameworks?

Beijing actually will have greater ease in convincing Taiwan if it affords more flexibility.

Call me a cynic, but I think a good proportion of the ultra rich chinese seeking to move abroad are doing so because they know they have dirty money.
 

joshuatree

Captain
Sure it can. But that still means HK will be getting 50% of the business while before Shangha FTZ, it could have gotten 100%. This is an over simplification. The percentage won't be likely that. Still any businesses gained by Shanghai could mean potentially business lost in HK.

Or it could be new businesses that never existed without a Shanghai FTZ. Opening new centers of commerce isn't just about stealing businesses from existing places, it's also about being a driver in creating new opportunities. Otherwise, there should be no such thing as an economy growing, merely a perpetual shuffling of the same economy.
 

joshuatree

Captain
Call me a cynic, but I think a good proportion of the ultra rich chinese seeking to move abroad are doing so because they know they have dirty money.

You are right about this one. It's irony at its finest. I have no doubt these emigrants with wealth from dubious dealings are seeking to move abroad because they IRONICALLY value the transparency and legal frameworks abroad that will protect their ill-gotten gain. :eek:
 
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