Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

pla101prc said:

well "end game" is what i had stipulated in my first post in this thread lol. in the military when the command issues an op order for an operation, end state is one of the few things that must be defined. the organizers of this movement should have an end game in mind BEFORE its initiation.

in practice though, one of the previous poster suggested focusing on Leung instead of Beijing, which is not a bad idea. gives Beijing a face-saving option of getting rid of Leung and quell the protests, a lil late but still worth a try.

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Brumby said:

Leverage is a hard factor to gauge. Beijing's tolerance here is because of the end game view of Taiwan. If Beijing handles this well it goes a long way in overcoming some of the issues with Taiwan.

I personally think 2017 is already set in stone. The best the OC movement can hope for is Beijing acceding to some form of continuing discussion over the form of a 2022 CE election which also marks the half way mark to 2047. Image is very important for Beijing and cannot be seen to be backing down but shifting the issue to 2022 also demonstrate Beijing's capacity to be accommodative. Beijing is still the master, that is the political reality and unless you can tap into Beijing's comfort zone there is not going to be progress.



Short term economic impact is not a major issue for the right reasons if it lays a more solid foundation for the HK and Beijing relationship going forward.

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airsuperiority said:

I never said it's impossible. I'm just saying to fall into the wrong path just to achieve success, aka the ends>means, is unacceptable for HKers.

And for me who's from Vancouver, I certainly understand. However I still won't and don't believe every society is the same and that it succumbs to the same fate eventually. No one knows, but I will stick by and believe in my people and hope for the best, although I am very well clear the realistic chances of things.

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pla101prc said:

that is because HK governor needs to be appointed by the central government, this is written in the basic law. so you can have all of HK vote for one lovely angel but if Beijing says no then BY LAW he is not the governor lol.

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airsuperiority said:

I never said it's impossible. I'm just saying to fall into the wrong path just to achieve success, aka the ends>means, is unacceptable for HKers.

And for me who's from Vancouver, I certainly understand. However I still won't and don't believe every society is the same and that it succumbs to the same fate eventually. No one knows, but I will stick by and believe in my people and hope for the best, although I am very well clear the realistic chances of things.

Click to expand...

Brumby said:

Leverage is a hard factor to gauge. Beijing's tolerance here is because of the end game view of Taiwan. If Beijing handles this well it goes a long way in overcoming some of the issues with Taiwan.

I personally think 2017 is already set in stone. The best the OC movement can hope for is Beijing acceding to some form of continuing discussion over the form of a 2022 CE election which also marks the half way mark to 2047. Image is very important for Beijing and cannot be seen to be backing down but shifting the issue to 2022 also demonstrate Beijing's capacity to be accommodative. Beijing is still the master, that is the political reality and unless you can tap into Beijing's comfort zone there is not going to be progress.



Short term economic impact is not a major issue for the right reasons if it lays a more solid foundation for the HK and Beijing relationship going forward.

Click to expand...

texx1 said:

The image problem for Beijing is not as important as one might think. At the end of day, trade and money will convince most of Taiwanese people aside from anti china diehards. The further economic integration between mainland and Taiwan is what will eventually bring Taiwan back into the fold. People vote with their wallets. Democracy is all good but it doesn't pay bills.

The protest will have long term economy impact on HK especially for its financial industry. As I have mention before in this thread, Beijing decides which city to receive the benefits of economic liberalization efforts. Shanghai free trade zone is an obvious signal to HK that they are not unique or indispensable anymore.

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texx1 said:

The image problem for Beijing is not as important as one might think. At the end of day, trade and money will convince most of Taiwanese people aside from anti china diehards. The further economic integration between mainland and Taiwan is what will eventually bring Taiwan back into the fold. People vote with their wallets. Democracy is all good but it doesn't pay bills.

The protest will have long term economy impact on HK especially for its financial industry. As I have mention before in this thread, Beijing decides which city to receive the benefits of economic liberalization efforts. Shanghai free trade zone is an obvious signal to HK that they are not unique or indispensable anymore.

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Blackstone said:

Doubtful on long-term harm to HK financial industry, HK is like Singapore in that it could stand on its own feet, economically speaking. Least we forget, HK already is economically liberalized and ranked as one of the best in the world.

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Brumby said:

Providing tax incentive as a free trade zone might be enticing but it is just one component of many things that a business looks into. There are the issues of regulatory regime of reliability, stability and transparency. Things that present risk of uncertainty is a danger zone for businesses. HK is much more established as a business centre because of the historic legacy of the legal framework, rule of law, and transparency. In other words, you know what you are dealing with. With Beijing, there is always the air of uncertainty and clumsiness in introducing new regulations and what does it actually mean and how it is meant to be administered for the businesses.

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