Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

pla101prc said:

mass protest movements have a tendency to filter out its benevolent elements over time. this is because protraction foments skepticism towards moderate tactics, it is human nature to be suspicious of an approach if it does not come to fruition over time. the scary thing about mass propensity to commit violence is that it feeds on itself. some "peaceful" element will begin to withdraw out of fear of their safety, those that remain will thus become marginalized and unable to impose a check on the violence, and they will in turn fear for their safety as violence worsens. eventually you are left with a bunch of drunk and unemployed hooligans burning and looting in the name of democracy. this is what happened in Kiev, not entirely beyond the realm of possibility in HK or any protests of this caliber. how to avoid this you ask? get your points across and go home.

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It is a reasonable statement of risk and hence there needs to be an end game in mind with the OC movement. Protraction carries risk.

airsuperiority said:

I hope nothing falls out of place, but I hope it all end within a week. Both sides need a way to step down.

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Have you discussed what I and others have suggested, with some of your peers at all? (no pressure)

I'm more interested in what their opinion would be, both in terms of their perception f its realism and the idea of supporting universal sufferage in HK while also seeking the central government's approval.
Unfortunately I don't have many friends who are part of the movement, and of the few I do, would be awkward to actively challenge their stance on this.

Brumby said:

I think we all want to see this end peacefully and without incident and that there is an acceptable solution for everyone. So far the general behaviour of the OC movement is encouraging based on what had been reported and so that is a good sign. The problem in my mind is that the longer this drags on, the greater is the scope for miscalculation from both ends. The discomforting part I see is that the OC movement does not seem to have an end game beyond pressing on with their demands. There needs to be a circuit breaker and path to de-escalate which I do not see coming from the OC movement or the authorities. If there is a back room dialogue going on, I haven't seen the rumors.

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The problem here is leverage. Many other members here have in one way or another pointed out OC organizers don't hold any substantial leverages over Beijing. Majority of MLers won't support HKers after anti-locust movement. Hong Kong's financial industry is partially dependent on the goodwill of Beijing. OC movement continuing will only generate more losses for Hong Kong's economy.

When the losses are felt by ordinary working HK adults, ones that have rent, credit card bill, car loan, mortgage, how much support students protest will then receive?

On Monday, the fall in Heng Seng index has already erased YTD gains for this year.

Students would no doubt continue to protest since their opportunity and financial cost is relatively low.

Bltizo said:

So, after a day and still no meaningful change.

Biggest hurdle remains the protester's discourse of being pro HK, anti China, which together comes to pro independence. If they can be pro HK and pro China as well, and limiting their anger to CY Leung and his cronies, the govt will probably pay more attention.
In the end, the govt's big problem with democracy is that it'll be used to overrule important issues such as sovereignty/unity and subversion of state rule. Assure them you won't test that and things will be more amicable.

Wait another day.

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you need to adjust your temporal measurement here, i suspect this movement will last weeks at least. we cannot possibly expect too much progress to be made on day two lol.

pla101prc said:

you need to adjust your temporal measurement here, i suspect this movement will last weeks at least. we cannot possibly expect too much progress to be made on day two lol.

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Lol of course, but obviously everyone is hoping for a quicker settlement

Brumby said:

I am running out of oxygen but I will try to bring some form of closure to this. I have nothing against you. I just don't agree with some of your views and hence at least I tried to have some form of meaningful exchange. Take for example this simple notion of whether expats were fleeing HK.

Yes expats do move in and out of HK because it is a major financial centre. That is simply a function of people movement in a modern society. I don't have to state or defend the obvious.

This is very different from your statement that expats were fleeing because of the behaviour of HKers. After several exchanges we are still going on about it. That to me is diminishing the value of the conversation.

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I'm not running out of oxygen.

All I said was expatriates fled Hong Kong over the fears of doom and gloom predictions over the handover. That was reported in the media. The only reason you would argue is if you believe expatriates didn't flee because of fear to which then you were anal about how many. I didn't argue about numbers. Now your digressing again and saying the expatriates come and go as a normal process and not because of fear of doom and gloom? You have new spin to waste oxygen that you say you don't have. I call it fishing. I never said expatriates fled because of the behavior of Hong Kongers. Want to show me proof where I said that? See your method of operation is to spin what I said. It's not about the enriching understanding nonsense you peddled. Is this another open definition of words?

Brumby said:

It is a reasonable statement of risk and hence there needs to be an end game in mind with the OC movement. Protraction carries risk.

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well "end game" is what i had stipulated in my first post in this thread lol. in the military when the command issues an op order for an operation, end state is one of the few things that must be defined. the organizers of this movement should have an end game in mind BEFORE its initiation.

in practice though, one of the previous poster suggested focusing on Leung instead of Beijing, which is not a bad idea. gives Beijing a face-saving option of getting rid of Leung and quell the protests, a lil late but still worth a try.

texx1 said:

The problem here is leverage. Many other members here have in one way or another pointed out OC organizers don't hold any substantial leverages over Beijing. Majority of MLers won't support HKers after anti-locust movement. Hong Kong's financial industry is partially dependent on the goodwill of Beijing. OC movement continuing will only generate more losses for Hong Kong's economy.

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Leverage is a hard factor to gauge. Beijing's tolerance here is because of the end game view of Taiwan. If Beijing handles this well it goes a long way in overcoming some of the issues with Taiwan.

I personally think 2017 is already set in stone. The best the OC movement can hope for is Beijing acceding to some form of continuing discussion over the form of a 2022 CE election which also marks the half way mark to 2047. Image is very important for Beijing and cannot be seen to be backing down but shifting the issue to 2022 also demonstrate Beijing's capacity to be accommodative. Beijing is still the master, that is the political reality and unless you can tap into Beijing's comfort zone there is not going to be progress.

texx1 said:

When the losses are felt by ordinary working HK adults, ones that have rent, credit card bill, car loan, mortgage, how much support students protest will then receive?

On Monday, the fall in Heng Seng index has already erased YTD gains for this year.

Students would no doubt continue to protest since their opportunity and financial cost is relatively low.

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Short term economic impact is not a major issue for the right reasons if it lays a more solid foundation for the HK and Beijing relationship going forward.

Geographer said:

A radical idea popped into my head. Why can't Hong Kong residents organize their own general election for Chief Executive? They already laid the ground work with the non-governmental referendum a few months ago on democracy. The poll could be done online and in person. Then all that needs to happen for democracy to take hold is for government officials to obey the elected CE and ignore the Beijing-appointed CE. It'd be a bloodless, democratic revolution.

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that is because HK governor needs to be appointed by the central government, this is written in the basic law. so you can have all of HK vote for one lovely angel but if Beijing says no then BY LAW he is not the governor lol.

AssassinsMace said:

I already know you're just arguing because you don't like what I have to say. That's what makes you slip all the time. You should talk to Blackstone. Blackstone did what you do too.

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AssassinMace, if I misquote or misrepresent someone, then I usually apologize or make amends. That's better than most on Internet Forums. What you do is obfuscate, misrepresent, and misdirect to score points, and it's simply not worth my time to always engage your kinds of people.