Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

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Brumby

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And I am sure the development of legal frameworks in China would not become stagnant since Beijing is very serious about its economic developments.

It is a tripartite model - economic, legal and political. Each needs to play a certain role to mutually support the other. China already has a legal system. The problem is in the way laws are enforced or interpreted and the depth of corruption is a reflection of how well it is working. The right political framework needs to be in place for that and accountability or lack of plays a significant role in this.
 

texx1

Junior Member
Competition breeds efficiency and efficiency removes waste.

At the very best, there will only be lower fees. At the very worse, waste means some financial firms will close its operation and laid off employees. We will find out whether it's going be HK based traders or SH based traders.
 

Brumby

Major
I merely trying to illustrate there will be competitions between financial centers. It's too early to see whether Shanghai and HK will be mutually cooperative. If Beijing did want Shanghai and HK to be mutually cooperative, would its calculation change after OC protest in Hong Kong. Simply put would Beijing be as generous to HK as before?

In a net positive zero sum environment, the issue of competition between gateways is not important because by the nature of its role it is a positive contributor to growth. if the economic pie is not growing you have a much bigger problem then just having to worry about competition between gateways. There probably are bigger structural issues at work either locally or globally.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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I speculate that there will be no difference between Shanghai and HK in the long run if Beijing forces the same rules to HK driving many foreign investors to relocate their main base to places like Singapore and maintain a small secretariat offices which they can cut loose when things get worse like the present anti-trust shame Beijing is campaigning targeting foreign car makers.

Beijing could have orchestrated a better election scheme with universal suffrage in place with favorable outcomes by placing various choke points on how political parties can be organized with nominees can only be appointed by political parties and/or place various limitations and check points to the elected official instead of acting irrationally and arrogantly stating Beijing has final word on selection of officials.

Despite my conditional support for universal sufferage in HK, I think we can't deny that the central government's offer was in the right step versus the present model, where the populace has even less say. So despite the central government filtering candidates, candidates would still have to campaign for the support of the populace, just within a few limits that the filtering process enables.

It's just unfortunate that it was shot down due to the preceding few years of poor social results and some attempts of Beijing to impose aspects of the mainland on HK such as education.


I'm not sure why you think Beijing would impose the same rules on HK as they have on the mainland regarding foreign companies, I'm not even sure if they've made noises suggesting that.
 

joshuatree

Captain
Mainland China as a market is just too large for foreign firms to avoid. For example Hollywood are constantly wanting show more movies in China even when intellectual property is not very well respected And I am sure the development of legal frameworks in China would not become stagnant since Beijing is very serious about its economic developments. And I agree that more flexibility on Beijing's part will help convincing Taiwan. But the point is whether Beijing sees it as absolute necessary. I guess we will find out.

It's still early in this cycle of business dynamics where the benefits still outweigh the costs. In the case of Hollywood, wait till the Chinese public gets sequel fatigue like how audiences in the US have. Transformer Part VIII - Megatron Just Won't Die? When those ticket sales plateau and even go downward, then we'll start to see the costs vs benefits really factor in. I don't believe business will simply vanish, I'm just saying in order for the economy and business to keep growing, there will be a point where transparency and legal frameworks permit the economy to grow to the next level. If and when that happens across China, then HK will no longer have an edge and just be another medium sized Chinese city.
 

texx1

Junior Member
It is a tripartite model - economic, legal and political. Each needs to play a certain role to mutually support the other. China already has a legal system. The problem is in the way laws are enforced or interpreted and the depth of corruption is a reflection of how well it is working. The right political framework needs to be in place for that and accountability or lack of plays a significant role in this.

In an ideal closed system, all three must work together in order to create a good prosperous environment for trade to develop. In actual cases each firm makes its own risk and benefit analysis. When it comes to China, foreign firms have taken the risk of more ambiguous legal protection in order to reach out to a market of 1.3 billion.

And let's not forget ambiguous legal environment has also created massive profit for foreign firms. For example GSK made billions taking advantage of corruption in China until it was caught and fined only 489 millions.
 
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Brumby

Major
At the very best, there will only be lower fees. At the very worse, waste means some financial firms will close its operation and laid off employees. We will find out whether it's going be HK based traders or SH based traders.

The concept is much more than just removing cost because of shrinkage. I remember in a documentary I saw a few years ago and the comments about how efficient the government regulation in HK was and it was a benchmark for world's best practice. It was reported that you can register a business in HK within a day requiring one form to be filled. I don't know how far that is true. In contrast, they said of a particular state in the US (I forgot which) which requires 6 weeks before they can start a business. A business community and innovation can thrive or get suffocated by a system.
 

texx1

Junior Member
In a net positive zero sum environment, the issue of competition between gateways is not important because by the nature of its role it is a positive contributor to growth. if the economic pie is not growing you have a much bigger problem then just having to worry about competition between gateways. There probably are bigger structural issues at work either locally or globally.

The competition of gateway is important for the people working in those gateways. The economic pie for China as a whole might be growing, but the benefit of the pie might not have been shared equally by workers in their respective gateways.
 
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how are things, airsuperiority? I just drank my early-morning coffee ... that link still works for me!
[video=youtube;w4q8fs8gTIs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=w4q8fs8gTIs[/video]

right now I see less people directly on the street ... is it because of the weather (I checked: at noon, 85 F, 80% humidity)? I wonder what's going to happen now, first I thought it was a FAQ :) so I quickly checked
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

but it ends with
"How these things end, we just don't know."

so what does airsuperiority think?
 

joshuatree

Captain
Back to the topic, the longer they stay in the streets to disrupt the local financial sector and tourism, the more other Chinese coastal cities and Singapore benefit. Democracy is a nice concept for the 1% to keep the middle class content but doesn't put bread on the table. Those who call in sick to demonstrate will eventually go back or lose their livehoods whereas those demanding students who has missed a chunk of the semester will be disadvantaged compared to their peers or even foreign competition.

There's much irony in this post. For the 99% in HK, their standard of living has been diminishing each passing year. And the Beijing approved govt hasn't done a satisfactory job in addressing this degradation. As a result, the concept of a democratically elected gov't without any conditions looks more and more as the silver bullet to their problems. In reality, it may or may not be the case. However, it is more the poor financial outlook of the common folk that is the impetus for these protests for democratic elections. If there was more bread available to everyone's table, these protests would diminish considerably.
 
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