speculation of H-20 size based on suspected runway size.
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Not sure how reliable, but I got a PM today from a Chinese follower who noted, that I shouldn't expect the H-20 to be unveiled within the next 5 years since the PLAAF's priorities are the J-20, the Y-20/YY-20 - allegedly an even larger transport (what makes me suspicious) and development of the 6th generation fighter type, which will eventually appear quite close to the H-20.
So what do you think?
So what do you think?
If H-6 is still in full production it would mean that H-20 is not to be build in number soon enough. H-20 will probably replace a bunch of them and the H-6 fleet is not that old. So when H-6 production cut it will be a good indication.
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6th gen "which will eventually appear quite close to the H-20" is suspicious too.
Why would you want to start two new and expensive programs at the same time? Good accountants would spread them out more evenly.
The strategic arms build-up, the state of the factory expansions and the 2025 J-20A intro time seem to suggest a quicker H-20 timeline.
Is the J-20 timetable necessarily relevant to the H-20? Xian is a different company, isn't it? I would imagine a lot of these programs are being developed in parallel...
Xian Aircraft industrial corporation is a sperate entity. they have nothing to do with Chengdu Aircraft industry group.
and its true. a lot of these programs are being developed in parallel.
1. I don't think it even makes sense for the PLAAF to develop a transport which is even larger than the Y-20.
You'd be looking at something like a C-5 Galaxy. But what can it do that a Y-20 can't?
2. In terms of priorities, the H-20 should be far more important than a larger C-5 class transport aircraft
Even if he is right about "H-20 not unveiled within next 5 years", all his reasonings are wrong or irrelevant IMO. Xi'an isn't involved in 6th gen fighter or J-20. Y-20 program is in a different stage that has no competition in resources with H-20, they don't share much of people or facilities. An even larger transport is IMO outlandish because I don't see the purpose for PLAAF.
Not runway, but aircraft parking space on apron of the air base.
Without knowing how reliable they are, we cannot make any comment.
Anyone can write anything, but the reason PLA watching works is that we take the word of people with established track records with gravity, and ignore the rest.
If this person has no independent track record, then they should be ignored.