Google Earth: PLAAF 2006

haven't came back to the forum in one month, WOW!

Planeman, you work for CIA? I never know that china have so many air space, at first i think about only 2 in one province. but dame, that is long ass list of bases

Shijazhuang 30 04'17 N 114 25'14 E, is a JL-8 (K-8) base but also has a number of combat aircraft there, possibly in storage: K-8 = 32. J-8-II = 5, J-7 = 26.

Zhangjiakou, 40º 44' 16" N 114º 55' 51" E, has 5 Flankers (probably J-11s) present.

Ok, I think that's all the visible bases covered. The result (Click for larger image):

(note that J-6/JJ-6 Framer aircraft not included. Some J-7s listed may be JJ-7s etc. Flanker varients are almost impossible to tell apart).

Generally the PLAAF/PLAN tends to leave its aircraft in the open. Few bases have hardened aircraft shelters and many of the shelters seen probably aren't hardened anyway. J-7s are probably over-reported because many seem to be in storage rather than actual use.

What strikes me is the relatively few "current generation" combat aircraft seen:

We must remember that what I recorded was not a representative sample in the statistical sense because aircraft dispersal is not a uniform. But the conspicuous lack of J-10s (although some of these satalite images may be years old) is all the same telling IMO.

First of all, you did an absolutely awesome job. Very commendable.
How many airbases from the list were not in hi-res on the GE? We should also extend this project as soon as new airbase is available in hires, mark them on a map, maybe even make a placeholder layer for GE with all the bases' locations.

As for numbers of planes found - that is of course very inconclusive. All the reasons you offered are valid ones, i'd also like to add to them the numbers of airbases left unseen, the possibility of some planes being in the air (or even visiting some other airbase - maybe we saw some planes twice ) as a pic was taken.

I don't believe most images are years old though. Google earth itself, with its launch, increased the usage of spy pics for commercial purposes, people buying them left and right.

anyhow, some discrepancies between numbers seen here and and confirmed/lowest possible estimate numbers are really high.
There are 300 flankers in china, maps show just 21, that's 93% missing.

There are 136 j8s showing, out of at least 300 out there, more than 50% missing.

There's 164 j7eg showing, out of at least 300 out there, little less than 50% missing.

222 j7 showing, out of at least 400-500 out there, again some 50% missing.

just 7 jh7 shwing, out of at least 50 out there, at least 86% missing.

129 q5 showing, out of at least 300 out there, little more than 50% missing.

95 h6 showing for best percentage yet, though not too surprising considering their size, they're hard to hide.

What surprised me are h-5 which were said to be retired except for a testbed here or there.

I would also say it is very notable that most important new planes, flankers, j10, jh7 all have very low percentages showing. It is not beyond doubt that they are A) purposefully hidden or B) very much in use/training or combination of two.

You speak sense, I can see you have a good grasp of the strengths/limitations of google-earth and intell analysis in general.

I think we need to establish some sort of google-earth project group, possibly expanding beyond just China.

I've also looked at Iran where I've proven that they do indeed have at least one ex-iraqi "Adan-1" AEW () and North Korea where I've found previously unreported (at least at Global security/FAS/Scramble etc) Mil Mi-26 Halo helicopters, plus a nice fake base (). Eritrea, Libya and a few other countries are on my to-do list.

But teamwork is the key.

You in?

Whilst looking for WIG, I came across another base with 22 J-6 "Farmer" aircraft in the open and an underground complex in the hill to the east at: 31 15 25N 120 24 07E. Probably called Xitang.

Another air base: 40 35 02 N 120 40 58 E - 34 H-5 "Beagle" bombers lined up. might be retired(?).

planeman said:

I think we need to establish some sort of google-earth project group, possibly expanding beyond just China.

But teamwork is the key.

You in?

Click to expand...

Hm, i must say i'm not sure. While i would have the motivation to do a limited project, for the likes of tawain, japan, certain US assets etc i don't think i'd be too keen on searching for turkmenistan's AF, if you know what i mean.
Lets start small and then see where that takes us.

By the way, i tried finding some kind of boneyard equivalent in china, finding all those hundreds of j6 planes stowed away somewhere... to no avail. Though it has been said repeatedly that china, indeed, is storing a sizeable part of their old 3000 j6 fleet. Only...where?

What I'm interested in finding, though I haven't got around to looking yet, is static AD sites like SA-2. They are easy to finding Syria or Iran, but China...

Here more for you to analyze
I posted this in the other thread
SA-2/HQ-2 near Zhangjiakou Airbase and DF-5 silos, around 90 miles Northwest of Beijing