Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

muddie said:

China will retaliate for sure but it would be interesting to see if they announce it in the coming weeks or if China chooses to wait a few months to weigh in potential outcomes of the election before making a decision then.

Why would China not just cancel the first phase of the trade deal? It saves the rare earth metals card for a future date. Canceling the first phase of the trade deal would be a direct blow to Trump's re-election marketing efforts. U.S. can raise tariffs back to pre-deal levels but it would hurt them a lot more now given the COVID backdrop.

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The problem with cancelling the first phase trade deal would be that, it could be ammo for Trump, he has been hinting about waiting and seeing whether China would honour the deal, with the environment right now its more likely to help him with his message and do more harm. It would also justify his stance of containing China through the semi conductor ban.

Though I agree the rare earth card can be used later. As much as don’t like it, for now a delaying tactic would be better than outright retaliation.

I have no idea if the Xi-government will retaliate. Their response has been very muted the past two years against provocations from Washington D.C. This is not a provocation anymore, but an escalation. Beijing could do massive damage to General Motors and Apple for example. They are not toothless. The Americans hawks are again banking on a muted response from China as it has always been during the whole trade and tech war. This is the reason I have some second thoughts about the current 1950's generation that is ruling the PRC.

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. The only retaliation that really impacts America is a phased PPE export ban.

All this other stuff is small fry that does little harm to America.

I would think rare earth ban will be the last resort. China can impose a partial or total ban of rare earth including processing of rare earth from USA or re-export of Chinese rare earth via third country.

Other than using this as a bargaining chip, if fully implemented it will slow down the progression of the entire industry towards 5nm and buy China time to catch up.

adiru said:

Do you have any links? This seems unlikely, the goal is to prevent not only Huawei from catching up to the advanced chip fabs but all of China (see my post above)
If the only goal for US is to hit the HiSilicon but otherwise leave the rest of Huawei phone division alone, then why need to do the Google ban? Everything is consistent with the US intent to completely kill off Huawei.

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This article states that the US Govt still allows foreign off the shelf Chips to be sold to Huawei.

"US Lawyer Kevin Wolf stresses that Chips made by companies other than Huawei and manufactured using US Technology can still be sold to Huawei without the Licensing requirements".

The US and rest of the world still interested in selling Chips to Huawei. They realise China is a large market and they will suffer if they lose the market. They are targeting Hisilicon to stop Huawei developing its own Chips. Obviously this new US Govt policy made in conjunction with US Semiconductor Companies.

WTAN said:

What is critical for advanced Chip manufacturing industry in China is for the SMEE 28nm DUV Immersion Lithography machine which is to be ready in December to be adopted by the leading FABs in the country. This will allow manufacture of 7nm Chips for Huawei and local companie .

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December this year ? Do you have any info about this ? Please ... !!

WTAN said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This article states that the US Govt still allows foreign off the shelf Chips to be sold to Huawei.

"US Lawyer Kevin Wolf stresses that Chips made by companies other than Huawei and manufactured using US Technology can still be sold to Huawei without the Licensing requirements".

The US and rest of the world still interested in selling Chips to Huawei. They realise China is a large market and they will suffer if they lose the market. They are targeting Hisilicon to stop Huawei developing its own Chips. Obviously this new US Govt policy made in conjunction with US Semiconductor Companies.

Click to expand...

Want to have the cake and eat it.

You cant develop your own, but you must buy only what I allow you to.

Appix said:

I have no idea if the Xi-government will retaliate. Their response has been very muted the past two years against provocations from Washington D.C. This is not a provocation anymore, but an escalation. Beijing could do massive damage to General Motors and Apple for example. They are not toothless. The Americans hawks are again banking on a muted response from China as it has always been during the whole trade and tech war. This is the reason I have some second thoughts about the current 1950's generation that is ruling the PRC.

Click to expand...

For a civilisation that have survives continuously for the past 4,000 years, I think they must have something up their sleeve.

WTAN said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This article states that the US Govt still allows foreign off the shelf Chips to be sold to Huawei.

"US Lawyer Kevin Wolf stresses that Chips made by companies other than Huawei and manufactured using US Technology can still be sold to Huawei without the Licensing requirements".

The US and rest of the world still interested in selling Chips to Huawei. They realise China is a large market and they will suffer if they lose the market. They are targeting Hisilicon to stop Huawei developing its own Chips. Obviously this new US Govt policy made in conjunction with US Semiconductor Companies.

Click to expand...

Wait, so what's to stop Hisilicon from licensing its designs to another company, then?

WTAN said:

"US Lawyer Kevin Wolf stresses that Chips made by companies other than Huawei and manufactured using US Technology can still be sold to Huawei without the Licensing requirements".

Click to expand...

They can't abandon their greed for even a single moment. Good, so what if Huawei has to release some Qualcomm chipped phones for a few years? HiSilicon can be a private research institution for a few years and take the opportunity to develop new tools and get its house in order. We're losing focus again in talking about retaliation and "why I oughta!" The EUV machine, that's all that matters. How long before the 32nm line width on the verification machine can be lowered to 13nm (the current state of the art)? Looking at ASML's development path, China would generously be where ASML was with a commercial 27nm EUV machine in 2010. It took them 7 years to develop the 13nm device in 2017; China must do it faster than that.

Skywatcher said:

Wait, so what's to stop Hisilicon from licensing its designs to another company, then?

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The fact that the licensee can then sell HiSilicon's chip to whomever it pleases.