Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

siegecrossbow said:

Reads like North Korean propaganda.

That said, imagine if they didn’t make known the nature of the threat and just used normal warnings through diplomatic channels. When the warnings have failed and they revealed that the exercise would lob missiles into “territorial waters” it would’ve been a major moral booster. Instead, they over promised through diplomatic and unofficial channels, doing the equivalent of promising a Ferrari but actually buying a Wuling Hongguang. Understandably people are pissed.

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Or make the same promise but also backing it with force, meaning they could have and should have did the force build up prior to Pelosi's trip and then cut off diplomatic channel and just use the military channel for further discussion. After all, there's no distinction between the PLA and the CPC since the CMC is headed and chaired by Gen.Sec Xi.

I am still annoyed tbh because for me it strengthen Chinas enemies and weakens her potential allies like in the Philippines, Laos, Cambodia, Solomon Islands even in countries in Middle East, Africa would question if China is all about the $$$ and nothing more. What good is the money if you can't even defend your dignity.

Ptah said:

Being a reserve currency is not an advantage. The USA has to run a deficit.

China's strategy should have been to bid its time. Built in China 2025 and to some extent belt and road was incredibly amateurish and populist move. It gave the west a target. It was at least a decade too soon.
China should have focused on building relationships with Asian countries especially India and Japan however difficult.

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Once a Tiger shows his/her claws, can you still pretend it's a cub?
Once China started building aircraft carrier the US can't pretend or interpreted that as a peaceful rise of China.
I would see that as China telling me sometime in the future i'm going to make moves against you.

Biscuits said:

Well yeah, they built political support for the public to be overwhelmingly anti west now, and probably made people more pro military resolution to the civil conflict.

There's a lot of long awaited changes they can put through now using this political capital.

Pelosi made no permanent agreements with Tsai and she will not stay. But the agreements and moves China can now make without being seen as the aggressor, will almost certainly be here to stay. We know for sure already that China will now close the activity gap from their side of the median line all the way to the Taiwan coastline. But I'd expect more announcements to come soon, especially related to the Donbass.

Lets be honest, folks like you or me or my family are not the CPC target group because we already believe in putting China's interests first. I can tell you that many many Chinese do not believe in armed reunification even though we (and the CPC) know it is a necessary fact. Many many Chinese also believe in the peaceful America myth. This outrage manipulation and victim card playing is meant to target these people and get consent from them, not us.

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You make a valid point. US is salami slicing, China can do that to. Hold these similar excercises every year, making them expansive and call it a 'routine' until one day it isnt.

From a long-term economic pressure perspective, one could also view this as a ‘soft launch’ or ‘trial run’ of a full naval blockade.

All the water in front of ports will be shut down for a week. There will be a chance to see how shipping adapts and change accordingly. There’s also the possibility of the exercises being indefinitely extended, or regularly repeated, posing as a permanent challenge.

In the longer term, it could morph into the mainland effectively running a customs regime over the island, controlling imports and exports. That gives the mainland increased political and economic pressure and control.

Armed vs peaceful reunification is a spectrum, not a binary. A bit of muscle eases the terms of the peace along.

Of course it could just be limited to a few payload-less munitions into the water for a few days, then done. We just have to wait and see.

siegecrossbow said:

It is a crisis of faith. Unless it is taken care off properly Gordon Chang may finally prove to be correct after 20 years of doom and gloom.

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Exactly, which is why I get pretty freaking annoyed when arguing here with my fellow member that emotion/passion can and must not be taken away into any equation. However grandiose one's vision, plans, etc..would fail if the support is not substantial or solid. People are willing to endure, eat shit if we have to so long as our faith in something remains strong and firm.

Money, fame, etc..have no lasting hold onto someone or anyone with great convictions. Passionate Ideas can move mountains and destroy dynasties.

tankphobia said:

Until we return to the daily shelling between the two sides during the second Taiwan strait crisis, anything the Chinese do can be constituted as "I'm not touching you".

I said heavy fires, not months of fires, doing a shock and awe against Taiwan then rushing in is likely to just a easy way to get lots of landing boats sunk for not much gain at all. The military forces actually needed to take over Taiwan is not something that you can hide the build up of, they will know weeks in advance and prepare accordingly, there is no fantasy scenario where the PLA rush unguarded beaches and captures Taipei in a lighting war. The only short term capitulation possible is that the civilian government surrenders, taking over Taiwan militarily would be difficult to do in the short term that you are suggesting.

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Landing boats sunk by what?

It takes a boat at 30kn maybe 20 minutes to hit the shore if it starts 10nm away. For a subsonic plane with paratroopers, maybe 2 minutes.

You'll get Harpoons or more likely, some antique French anti shipping missile within 2 to 20 minutes into an unknown beach anywhere surrounding the whole island?

You can't hide the buildup? There's enough forces to surround the island and put a de facto blockade right now, and how long was it since photos of equipment moving came out? 1 to 2 days?

If you said heavy fire, not months of fire, then we are somewhat in agreement? Except you believe China cannot do heavy fire the same moment the marines land, for some unknown reason. Theyre going to be courteous and do it first before probing for breaches so rebels have weeks to prepare.

You seem to have a fantasy scenario where rebels with 1970s era equipment who get their whole command chain demolished the moment China goes in can independently mobilize to guard every possible landing spot and hold against technologically superior and locally numerical superior forces that have air superiority.

I'd buy your argument more if the average ROC fighter were like the taliban, used to independent action, surviving poor conditions and blending in the population. But they're not.

ROC rushing to defend beachheads in itself would already be a questionable move, government forces have absolute ISR superiority and unlimited air power, going static and waiting for landing ships to come means getting smashed by MLRS and air strikes.

Bellum_Romanum said:

Exactly, which is why I get pretty freaking annoyed when arguing here with my fellow member that emotion/passion can and must not be taken away into any equation. However grandiose one's vision, plans, etc..would fail if the support is not substantial or solid. People are willing to endure, eat shit if we have to so long as our faith in something remains strong and firm.

Money, fame, etc..have no lasting hold onto someone or anyone with great convictions. Passionate Ideas can move mountains and destroy dynasties.

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It's like how China was able to fight the Korean war even when they were vastly outgunned, their conviction and trust in their ideology carried them through. It is exactly that conviction that is at risk here, the youth in China are noticeably more patriotic then their parents that had endured the chaos of the cultural revolution, building up an image in their head of a China that is strong enough to protect its sovereignty from the West that seeks to destroy China.

But after they had allowed Pelosi to land and do her dance in Taiwan after all the warnings, their internal image of a strong China must be shaken to the core. Remember that the last time this happened was 25 years ago! Everyone born around that time would've had a completely different view of Chinese strength compared to anyone before, until now. All those wolf warrior films of patriotism and a strong military undone by a 82 year old's vacation.

Biscuits said:

Well yeah, they built political support for the public to be overwhelmingly anti west now, and probably made people more pro military resolution to the civil conflict.

There's a lot of long awaited changes they can put through now using this political capital.

Pelosi made no permanent agreements with Tsai and she will not stay. But the agreements and moves China can now make without being seen as the aggressor, will almost certainly be here to stay. We know for sure already that China will now close the activity gap from their side of the median line all the way to the Taiwan coastline. But I'd expect more announcements to come soon, especially related to the Donbass.

Lets be honest, folks like you or me or my family are not the CPC target group because we already believe in putting China's interests first. I can tell you that many many Chinese do not believe in armed reunification even though we (and the CPC) know it is a necessary fact. Many many Chinese also believe in the peaceful America myth. This outrage manipulation and victim card playing is meant to target these people and get consent from them, not us.

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Thank you

phrozenflame said:

The lesson in all of this is China is hopelessly incompetent in PR. The wolf diplomacy might be a good sell to internal audience but it just sounds so over the top and childish that no one takes them seriously. I find it laughable and over the last 24 hours, they made a joke of themselves, not only with the world, but with their own population.

Furthermore, China has done nothing to enhance it's soft power through media and cultural export. Look at South Korea, Qatar, Russia, Iran. Hell, Pakistan's single Twitter account did better PR on Feb 27th against India which is several times bigger than it in all aspects and controlled the entire narrative.

This is the lesson they need to learn. This is the hill they decided to fight on for really no serious reason. Even if they fight on this Hill over the coming days, they still need to sort out their PR

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Which is ironic because the private entrepreneurs on the mainland are extremely good at marketing themselves. There should be incentives for the younger, more global generation to work for the government.

AssassinsMace said:

What's the point of these military exercises?

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Well, if China can intrude upon Chinese Taipei's territorial waters <12nm, and regularly exercise on eastern half of Taiwan straits, then that is significant change of status quo (on par with meaningless symbolic visit).

So if we want to compare salami-slices, they are equally meaningless and symbolic, but still a win for China to regularly exercise closer within Taiwanese territory and surrounding it.