Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

siegecrossbow said:

Reads like North Korean propaganda.

That said, imagine if they didn’t make known the nature of the threat and just used normal warnings through diplomatic channels. When the warnings have failed and they revealed that the exercise would lob missiles into “territorial waters” it would’ve been a major moral booster. Instead, they over promised through diplomatic and unofficial channels, doing the equivalent of promising a Ferrari but actually buying a Wuling Hongguang. Understandably people are pissed.

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tankphobia said:

The best outcome would've been she not having went at ALL. But she did. The propaganda arm/foreign ministry issued a final warning per day and even the president himself got involved telling off Biden. Yet they still went, if the west could afford to ignore this level of public display of displeasure by the Chinese why would they be deterred by a few exercise of "I'm not touching you" by the Chinese side?

Trying to spin an exercise as a win just seems like a cope to me, the win condition is that the US gets deterred from interfering in Taiwan. Was that achieved in this instance? I think we both know the answer to that question. Running military exercises after the US leaves Taiwan is just trying to salvage the situation and placate the local population. Of course you can say allowing China to do constant drills within 12 miles is a big win, but I was quite sternly told earlier in this thread that any amphibious assault of Taiwan would be precluded with heavy, heavy long ranged fires from land, so doing amphibious/naval drills so close to the shores of Taiwan is nothing more than theater at this point.

If they were going to do this from the start, the foreign ministry should've just sent a single warning, then announce the exercise on the day of the visit. Instead they warned every day and announced the exercise after the landing, if that is not reactive what is? Now they have to heavily control the narrative so it doesn't get out of control domestically.

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Sardaukar20 said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554497470020845569

This is bound to happen because of China's PR mess over the last few days. Its about time for China to respond with some action.

The PRC and Lithuania's relations are currently downgraded to chargé d'affaires level. There is far less at stake for China to do something to this idiot if he dares to fly to Taiwan as a Minister of Foreign Affairs.

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Bellum_Romanum said:

It's all about the $$$ There’s going to be massive loss of revenues, investments, etc..from the Chinese side hence their response is at best very modest or worst inept to most Chinese passionate about the Taiwan issue.

Countries like Iran and others that are used as an example against China almost have nothing to lose while China and it's government are still trying to climb up the economic ladder and improve their standards of living.

I still maintain that if I a Chinese person who no longer resides in the mainland is still emotionally affected by the seemingly tepid response by the government how much more for our fellow Chinese in the mainland who has to watch the Pelosi parade brought on by the Americans forced into the country?

The CPC is more angry with the DPP when the real power behind such a move was and will always be the Americans. Which means to some that China is chicken little with respect to the U.S. and that they prioritize $$$ above the supposed interest of the nation. These sort of discussion will always be censored in the mainland but how long can they keep up of putting a lid on the anger of many Chinese people? They have sacrificed a lot for the country. The party shouldn't forget that the Party is nothing without the People, and that the people makes the party not the other way around. Lest they forget that the name sake of the country itself is called The PEOPLE'S Republic of China and not the Communist Party of China. So the party better be careful and not waste away the support of the people or take them for granted.

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Luke Warmwar said:

The ’spectacle’ of the exercises has yet to kick in.

Mobilising forces and shooting missiles into the water isn’t anything new. On the other hand, having mainland missiles seen in the sky over Taiwan and ships seen from the island’s coast is a real change.

There’s also a non-zero chance of those exercises turning hot through interference.

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chlosy said:

Suggest China should do less warning, and act more.

Ditch the petro dollar. Hence forth, all oil and natural gas purchases will be paid in RMB or the exporting country's currency.

Freeze US Treasury purchases.

Minimize role of British banking.

Deeper freeze Australia

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Bellum_Romanum said:

It's all about the $$$ There’s going to be massive loss of revenues, investments, etc..from the Chinese side hence their response is at best very modest or worst inept to most Chinese passionate about the Taiwan issue.

Countries like Iran and others that are used as an example against China almost have nothing to lose while China and it's government are still trying to climb up the economic ladder and improve their standards of living.

I still maintain that if I a Chinese person who no longer resides in the mainland is still emotionally affected by the seemingly tepid response by the government how much more for our fellow Chinese in the mainland who has to watch the Pelosi parade brought on by the Americans forced into the country?

The CPC is more angry with the DPP when the real power behind such a move was and will always be the Americans. Which means to some that China is chicken little with respect to the U.S. and that they prioritize $$$ above the supposed interest of the nation. These sort of discussion will always be censored in the mainland but how long can they keep up of putting a lid on the anger of many Chinese people? They have sacrificed a lot for the country. The party shouldn't forget that the Party is nothing without the People, and that the people makes the party not the other way around. Lest they forget that the name sake of the country itself is called The PEOPLE'S Republic of China and not the Communist Party of China. So the party better be careful and not waste away the support of the people or take them for granted.

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Ptah said:

Being a reserve currency is not an advantage. The USA has to run a deficit.

China's strategy should have been to bid its time. Built in China 2025 and to some extent belt and road was incredibly amateurish and populist move. It gave the west a target. It was at least a decade too soon.
China should have focused on building relationships with Asian countries especially India and Japan however difficult.

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Biscuits said:

This isn't between the west and China, its between Beijing and Taipei.

And sure if Taipei wants to dismiss everything as "nothing happened" and "I'm not touching you" then that is good. It means they'll allow "I'm not touching you" as the status quo.

Whatever you read before about landing always being precluded by months of bombing is... Just untrue? China could also make a rapid beachhead and then massively reinforce them with air and naval strikes after the beach is taken.

In fact this is likely the preferred strategy, because it plays to PLA's shock and awe advantage, the initial breaches being followed by disruption to ROC command means there won't be a coordinated response to all breaches, and government troops will freely flow through unguarded breaches in the chaos, causing further panic and morale breakdown among the rebel army.

Bombing the shit out of Taiwan for months on end will just incur hatred from the civilians, deteriorate living conditions, generate sympathy for the rebels and therefore also increase their recruits. Its similar as what Zelensky was doing to the Donbass, and you can see it was not very effective.

Whoever told you that was a prequisite doesn't know what they're talking about.

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