Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

which countries are we talking about? cause if we're talking about first world countries they benefit from the current system dominated by the us, the help they would provide has already been paid off by being in a system that rewards their loyalty

if we're talking about second world countries, some act like hungary (willing to do business with china), other act like the baltic states

bridges and highways are enticing, but they're not enough imo

SanWenYu said:

Would these countries support the US for free? Or are you implying that freedom and democracy of the western style have lost to bridges and highways?

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They worship the West, but they want Chinese money. They maintain defense contracts with the US, yet they want Chinese loan forgiveness.

For years China had to offer products twice as good but cheaper in price to win bids from European contractors.

All that is fine. You leverage the card you have (for China right now it’s money). It’s better now, but in the early days BRI used to splash money around like nothing. The ROI on a lot of these countries are worthless.

Petrolicious88 said:

They worship the West, but they want Chinese money. They maintain defense contracts with the US, yet they want Chinese loan forgiveness.

For years China had to offer products twice as good but cheaper in price to win bids from European contractors.

All that is fine. You leverage the card you have (for China right now it’s money). It’s better now, but in the early days BRI used to splash money around like nothing. The ROI on a lot of these countries are worthless.

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What specific countries are we talking about here? The biggest BRI projects in Laos, Kazakhstan and Ethiopia were incredible successes with no drawback, and none of these have any defense contract with US.

The more I think about both the Ukrainian affair and Taiwan mixed signals, the more I am convinced the US wants China to invade Taiwan, just like Russia invaded Ukraine.

Like a Roman emperor, the US loves putting people and countries to fight each other, while it sits and watches the circus catchig fire.

I think it would be awful for China to invade Taiwan. It will gain nothing from this move and will achieve three things:
a) it will make the Chinese brothers of Taiwan to hate mainland China;
b) make the US to enjoy the civil war fighting while not risking anything;
c) bleed mainland China of important resources thereby weakening mainland China.

I my humble opinion, China should AT MOST blockade Taiwan without invading it and wait for any moves from the US.

In doing this it will avoid being hated by Taiwanese Chinese people, will avoid giving the US the pleasure of watching the fight and will not weaken itself by throwing away valuable resources.

Sooner than later the US will get involved in a war with China. So, do not waste resources in a civil war against your brothers and sisters.

Petrolicious88 said:

A lot of the countries that supposedly support the One China policy won’t lift a finger to help China when the time comes. Most are looking for a handout. These relationships are transactional only.

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Yes, because China would collapse in a liberation of Taiwan scenario without Niger's military support.

jfcarli said:

The more I think about both the Ukrainian affair and Taiwan mixed signals, the more I am convinced the US wants China to invade Taiwan, just like Russia invaded Ukraine.

Like a Roman emperor, the US loves putting people and countries to fight each other, while it sits and watches the circus catchig fire.

I think it would be awful for China to invade Taiwan. It will gain nothing from this move and will achieve three things:
a) it will make the Chinese brothers of Taiwan to hate mainland China;
b) make the US to enjoy the civil war fighting while not risking anything;
c) bleed mainland China of important resources thereby weakening mainland China.

I my humble opinion, China should AT MOST blockade Taiwan without invading it and wait for any moves from the US.

In doing this it will avoid being hated by Taiwanese Chinese people, will avoid giving the US the pleasure of watching the fight and will not weaken itself by throwing away valuable resources.

Sooner than later the US will get involved in a war with China. So, do not waste resources in a civil war against your brothers and sisters.

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The biggest problem isn't Taiwanese hating Chinese but rather the fact that they don't take China seriously. If you watch any Taiwanese talk show many of them believe Taiwan is outright stronger than China.

Defeating Taiwan wouldn't make them hate Chinese. Far from it in fact. defeating them would demoralize them completely. It would shatter their worldview. There would be no more excuses or cope possible. It would greatly raise the prestige of China in the world by proving that China is serious and capable. It would be a groundbreaking event like Soviet Union liberating Europe from Nazi Germany.

dengyeye said:

Yes, because China would collapse in a liberation of Taiwan scenario without Niger's military support.

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It won’t hurt.

jfcarli said:

The more I think about both the Ukrainian affair and Taiwan mixed signals, the more I am convinced the US wants China to invade Taiwan, just like Russia invaded Ukraine.

Like a Roman emperor, the US loves putting people and countries to fight each other, while it sits and watches the circus catchig fire.

I think it would be awful for China to invade Taiwan. It will gain nothing from this move and will achieve three things:
a) it will make the Chinese brothers of Taiwan to hate mainland China;
b) make the US to enjoy the civil war fighting while not risking anything;
c) bleed mainland China of important resources thereby weakening mainland China.

I my humble opinion, China should AT MOST blockade Taiwan without invading it and wait for any moves from the US.

In doing this it will avoid being hated by Taiwanese Chinese people, will avoid giving the US the pleasure of watching the fight and will not weaken itself by throwing away valuable resources.

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a) If someone living in Taiwan hates China, s/he will hate China with or without invasion. If someone living in Taiwan doesn't hate China, he probably would support it. China's strategic decisions should pay this aspect no consideration.

b) Failing to protect Taiwan, the US loses all credibility in Asia.

c) I don't see how. The US has already tried that. Trade war, tech war, everything backfires on America and makes China stronger. The US needs no excuse or reason to try its best against China; it's just not working.

jfcarli said:

Sooner than later the US will get involved in a war with China. So, do not waste resources in a civil war against your brothers and sisters.

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With MAD, that very well might not happen and America will just have to compete fairly and watch as they get surpassed.

alfreddango said:

I remember this guy, I listened to a podcast where he participated. He's a former soviet officer iirc, so it's to be expected that he would have a negative opinion of chinese military/strategy.
fair enough, he's entitled to his opinion; china seems to be pursuing its own strategy, which sometimes can seem questionable to other observers, especially if they're biased. only time will tell who did the right thing

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I listen to him and has read one of his books which I posted earlier, but yeah, his analysis still bears the Russian stronk commentary which judging from the Russia-Ukraine war should have quashed his bewildering opinion that if exercise of power deters your would be adversaries then why has the war with Ukraine happened?

jfcarli said:

The more I think about both the Ukrainian affair and Taiwan mixed signals, the more I am convinced the US wants China to invade Taiwan, just like Russia invaded Ukraine.

Like a Roman emperor, the US loves putting people and countries to fight each other, while it sits and watches the circus catchig fire

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You are deceiving yourself by thinking that every single thing that happens must be some sort of a grand American master plan. in reality it's much more simpler.
the only policy the US knows is to push forward all the way till they either win or lose.
the US is gradually pushing forward for Taiwan independence hoping that Beijing would have the same kind of a hesitant mindset that (for example) you have so they achieve their goal for Taiwan independence.

jfcarli said:

a) it will make the Chinese brothers of Taiwan to hate mainland China;

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Re-education plus replacing some of the Taiwanese populace with mainlanders will solve that issue, China has 1.4 billion people, absorbing the Taiwanese is gonna be a piece of cake.

jfcarli said:

b) make the US to enjoy the civil war fighting while not risking anything;

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The US will not enjoy it, instead they will only look at it with horror and disbelief as they see TSMC falling in to the hands of China and they see their 70+ years Taiwan independence project going up in flames.

jfcarli said:

c) bleed mainland China of important resources thereby weakening mainland China.

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A population of 24 million is not gonna bleed anything out of a population 1.4 billion as long as the PLA doesn't hold back on Taiwan. Plus the US won't be able to replenish the Taiwanese military since the PLA would enforce a blockade.

jfcarli said:

I my humble opinion, China should AT MOST blockade Taiwan without invading it and wait for any moves from the US.

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Wait are you saying if the conflict escalates then China should give the US time so the Americans can formulate a plan to respond to China?
You have to take your enemies by surprise NOT give them enough time wtf.