Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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The most Niger could do is send China a DJI Mavic drone in support anyway
Was banned temporarily but hopefully, we can extend that to permanent.
If you open the window, some flies naturally get in.
Whatever he said, he spoke too soon.
Did not watch the video, only to the part where he said the date, August 3rd.
Since then, a lot has happened, and it is clear what is going on IMHO.
What we are seeing, is gray-warfare on the part of China.
We saw gray-warfare on the part of the United States with this Pelosi visit, where the Americans claimed plausible deniability.
What China did was different, because it was a blockade at will, to be turned on or off.
Consider what will happen with the next US arms shipment to Taiwan.
The Chinese will block it, because they have a blockade in place at a moment's notice.
Suppose someone has an idea in the politburo, let it through, because the Taiwan won't use it anyways, and we can hit back somewhere else more effectively and bigger potential gains. That should work for the PRC.
Notice what is going on here. With the gray-warfare and partial blockade, the Chinese side has maximum flexibility, and they are not even going to war.
That is why the Americans declined to escalate this current crisis. In terms of military, diplomacy, economics, the Chinese are using gray-warfare to leverage all of that, in ways the Americans are unable to counter.
The Americans will not be able to counter this for a while, what the Chinese side is presenting at the moment. That is why the old woman Pelosi was saying the other day that they cannot allow China to impose this new normal in the Taiwan Strait. What a complete amateur. She should just go back to taking bribes and stay out of this geopolitical stuff.
In fact this make sense, might be useful from India point of view and could cause some real danger to both side.
India has some voice especially since modi government, believe that they need Taiwan as some kind a new leverage to counter the Chinese influence around their borders. Normally this means nothing, just some gambler try to bluff on the table and China knows about it. But this is time, with the tension escalated on the Taiwan strait, India is trying again and want China to buy the idea that the chance of India attacks China while during the war with Taiwan increased.
The thing is, modi government, been a right wing Hindu nationalism/popularism government has the tendency and especially the history of pulling some kind of the military adventures around the border. For India, or it seems at least for current Modi government, they believe this is a risk free claim or bluff at the moment, because until they actually act on it, the China’s reactions will be also only stay in words. so they might add their ask regardless of Chinese reactions and see if they can create some new leverage from void like what Americans always do.
The real danger is that, despite both side know this is a pure bluff, but whether this could become a really thing or put in another way, the chance of “whether this could become a new ‘common understanding’ within India that make the bluff more real and not just looked more real” increased as well. So that the opportunity of this bluff been cashed might not limited to when Chinese attention is on Taiwan increased as well, especially with Americans and Quad get involved these days.
The ability of Modi’s government to maintain the power/control over media and first line troops will declined if their election is in danger or suffering some major lose in the future, by then the new “common understanding” could force India to gamble on another military adventure by then despite its own government’s will. And this certain crisis could be at a time that neither side wanted, which could harm the interests of both side.
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Firstly its not a comparable situation because Russia and Ukraine are 2 separate nations, China cannot legally invade a part of itself the same way Ukrainian offensives against the Donbass are not legally considered invasions either.
As soon as enemy propaganda gets purged and the population is re educated, opinions change very fast. When China began its crusade against terror, many uyghurs hated Han people and preferred Saudi wahhabism and ISIS caliphate over socialist values. Less than 10 years later, people in Xinjiang province are sitting on American flags as a sign of disrespect and there's now 0 terror attacks.
The same will happen in Taiwan province. And as usual those who don't like it in this country are free to move.
Full war with US is avoidable, US is far from as in control as they would like you to believe in propaganda. They rely largely on Chinese popular goodwill to simply not lock them out of most consumer goods including medicines. This wouldn't be a big problem if they had a functional administrative system, but they struggle with simple projects due to absurd levels of corruption.
America is the USSR of the 21st century, it looks like a giant of military might, controlled by implacable ideologues with a network of vassal states supposedly loving them and ready to sacrifice anything for them. The reality is far more complicated, and collapse may be much closer than anyone dares think in fears of being overly optimistic.
We'll first see how US handles the dual blows of the Ukraine war and Trump right winger conspiracy.
The Soviets also constantly threatened with rolling through west Europe using their oversized military, yet these threats never materialised before they collapsed due to internal deficiency. Time will tell if American threats in the Asia Pacific share the same nature.
The US would rather nuke the world than have the world be lead by a non-white country. The racist part of US foreing policy isn't rational as exemplified on how they handle Climate Change; for them is something that will only affect those poors non-whites in the third world so they don't have to sacrifice profits and stocks to save the world.
The guy is a blowhard of Russian military power and Russian technologies. He is pretty ignorant of Chinese technologies and Chinese military. He sometimes is delusional in thinking Russia is still a superpower on par with the US and China is behind Russia is many ways. He could be good at lashing out at the "combined West," but his tirade can get old.
The EU can say anything they like. Whether they will actually back it up with military or economic actions is a different question.
I think the sanctions against Russia were a total surprise to Europe's business community, which explains why they passed so easily; these sanctions have not been reversed because the EU's politics are murky, not nearly as democratic as their rhetoric pretends.
This time, however, the EU's businesses would be fully warned. I doubt they would support serious sanctions against China; many of their largest corporations, such as Airbus and Volkswagen, are heavily invested in the Chinese market, and would be loathe to sacrifice their profits over something as trivial (by their reckoning) as Taiwan.
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