Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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tonyget said:
If it is a multi-day drill，PLA will clarify it. PLA always announce the duration of drills in advance，this time they didn't say it's a multi-day drill.

Really？You’re telling me that Taiwan island is surrounded Chinese navy now？Can you show me pics/maps etc ?

This drill is a disappointment to be honest. I don't see any difference from the 1996 one，or North Korea firing BM towards Japanese water. To the opponent，it's more of an annoying action than deterrence.

If you want Taiwan to feel the pressure，you need to either conduct naval or aerial exercise in those area. Or send some target drones and ships to the area，than shoot it down with SAM or ASBM，that's the way to show that you can hit moving target from far away.

Firing BMs at water is just. . . .what can I say，not that impressive or scary. As I said，it's something North Korea or any countries have
missiles could do today，PLA could do it 30 years ago. The drill didn't show any improvement in capabilitys of PLA compare to 30 years ago.
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Yes they did. In fact it has been extended to August 8th.
 
B

blindsight

Junior Member
Registered Member
tonyget said:
If it is a multi-day drill，PLA will clarify it. PLA always announce the duration of drills in advance，this time they didn't say it's a multi-day drill.

Really？You’re telling me that Taiwan island is surrounded Chinese navy now？Can you show me pics/maps etc ?

This drill is a disappointment to be honest. I don't see any difference from the 1996 one，or North Korea firing BM towards Japanese water. To the opponent，it's more of an annoying action than deterrence.

If you want Taiwan to feel the pressure，you need to either conduct naval or aerial exercise in those area. Or send some target drones and ships to the area，than shoot it down with SAM or ASBM，that's the way to show that you can hit moving target from far away.

Firing BMs at water is just. . . .what can I say，not that impressive or scary. As I said，it's something North Korea or any countries have
missiles could do today，PLA could do it 30 years ago. The drill didn't show any improvement in capabilitys of PLA compare to 30 years ago.
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From a parallel universe?
 
horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
I actually think that Xi played along with it as a political gamble. If Pelosi cancels his position would look very strong, boy did it backfire though.
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Yeah, I agree with what you are saying.

The situation was fluid, it could have gone any way. Not either way, but any way.

But then, we come to the point of China, where China is being China, the size, and under the PRC, the capacity to mobilize.

Did not matter which way it went, China had a reply.

I mean, which day last week did Pelosi say she was going to visit Taiwan?

And like in two weeks or less, we see an exercise of this scale?

Holy shit.

:oops:
 
X

xypher

Senior Member
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B.I.B. said:
I certainly hope there are not to many people around who share your opinion, because that is exactly what fuels Australia's stance with China.
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No, what is fueling Australia's stance is that it is a US vassal that tries to be a poor man's version of it and act as a white sheriff of Asia. Australia showed hostility first by aggressively banning Chinese companies and curtailing investments, practicing hostile rhetoric and breeding anti-Chinese racism, then being a good US pawn always at the forefront of attacking China. So yeah, fuck Australia and their stance.
 
K

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
So it seems PLA high command chose Grade 6 in terms of response to Pelosi visit.

I got the point of orgin for Pelosi plane wrong but Grade 7--which many of you wanted--would have started a mini-air skirmish or clash involving both US and Chinese forces with naval vessels/subs standing by for any escalation. That one could started a conflict leading to a bigger war and more mess.

Kich said:
Interesting to see how PLA react to Pelosi trip which will happen. I don't see US backing down now because it will bad on the PR spectrum for them if they do.
I made a series of response from PLA which will be in the form a snap drill for their forces. The higher the grade number, the more serious it is.

Grade 1: No response.

Grade 2: PLAAF flyby in south Taiwan ADIZ. Possible snap drill by PLAN in ECS or SCS.

Grade 3: PLAAF flyby in south Taiwan ADIZ with 200+ aircrafts all together in a span of days. Possible snap drill by PLAN in ECS and SCS

Grade 4: PLAAF crossing the median line coupled with unknown number of ADIZ intrusions from South or encirclement around Taiwan.

Grade 5: Snap drill in Taiwan strait itself for all PLA branches with PLARF launching ballistic missiles. If ballistic launches are directly over Taiwan, it might generate a 4th Taiwan strait crisis.

Grade 6: Extreme reaction which combines Grade 3-5 with possible ballistic flight over Taiwan.

Grade 7: PLAAF launches intercept drills around ECS and North of Taiwan ADIZ at the exact moment Pelosi flight is heading towards Taiwan. Her flight path will originate from Japan and head towards north of Taiwan. I think this one is the most dangerous and might actually spark an incident.

Grab your popcorn, it's going to be interesting for the next couple of weeks.
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