Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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B.I.B.

Captain
No, that's fact. The conjecture is America becoming, as you put it, a suicide bomber state.

Because I see nuclear weapons for what they are: insurance. I don't want China to fight a nuclear war, but I do want it to absolutely delete the US from every point in the space-time continuum if nuclear war comes. Nuclear parity is the umbrella under which China continues its conventional development and buildup. Without them, if America finally wises up and recognizes that China will achieve qualitative and quantitative superiority, it'll start a war out of an "it's now or never" mentality.

Increased risk aversion in China is actually what I fear, not the US becoming a suicide bomber state. I worry that as China becomes physically stronger, it becomes mentally weaker and softer. This is precisely why I don't want the Taiwan issue resolved - my nightmare is the US one day going "fine, we'll give up Taiwan to keep everything else" and China accepting that. Taiwan is a chilli pepper up China's ass and that's exactly where it needs to stay. A train of insults like Pelosi's for the next two decades is exactly what I need so China becomes enormously bigger, incomparably stronger, and stays really pissed off.

Because the thing is, I don't want Taiwan principally. Taiwan just gets picked up along the way. What I actually want is Hawaii. I want China to occupy or dominate every patch of dirt sticking out of the Pacific Ocean.

I certainly hope there are not to many people around who share your opinion, because that is exactly what fuels Australia's stance with China.
 
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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
I personally don’t think these drills will amount to much.

Someone posted in this thread, about Taiwan talking about their oil reserves.

If there is a blockade, like there is one now for at least 4 days, Taiwan will run out of oil in two months or sooner.

We know what 9dashline will tell us, so this is a potentially very serious situation Taiwan finds itself in.

The PRC can turn off the taps at will, and they got to hope America will come to save them.

It is kind of odd. Taiwan does not appear to want to fight for Taiwan, but expects America to fight for Taiwan.

This is just one example, of how things will change after this exercise.

:oops::D
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I certainly hope there are not to many people around who share your mentality, because that is exactly what fuels Australia's stance with China.
I think you'll find Australia's stance is what makes Chinese think the way they do about it.

Anyway who cares what Australians think? It's another colonial state that needs to be dismantled with the country returned to its rightful owners.
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
A. This is day 1
B. No more middle line in Taiwan strait anymore, PLA vessels are all around Taiwan now
C. US carriers are moving away from Taiwan atm

If it is a multi-day drill,PLA will clarify it. PLA always announce the duration of drills in advance,this time they didn't say it's a multi-day drill.

Really?You’re telling me that Taiwan island is surrounded Chinese navy now?Can you show me pics/maps etc ?

This drill is a disappointment to be honest. I don't see any difference from the 1996 one,or North Korea firing BM towards Japanese water. To the opponent,it's more of an annoying action than deterrence.

If you want Taiwan to feel the pressure,you need to either conduct naval or aerial exercise in those area. Or send some target drones and ships to the area,than shoot it down with SAM or ASBM,that's the way to show that you can hit moving target from far away.

Firing BMs at water is just. . . .what can I say,not that impressive or scary. As I said,it's something North Korea or any countries have
missiles could do today,PLA could do it 30 years ago. The drill didn't show any improvement in capabilitys of PLA compare to 30 years ago.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Back in 2014, Ukraine was weak. Russia could have taken the whole country much easier than now. What happens if Taiwan now use the next few years to properly militarise and try to make themselves embargo proof?

That is thinking very far ahead.

What I cannot still get over, is how Taiwan will not even at least try to shoot down a missile, that basically flew right over their head.

If no one is willing to fight, then it does not matter what kind of plans we have.

Back in 1996, even out gunned like the PLA was, it was still willing.

We cannot say the same right now about Taiwan in 2022.

:oops:
 

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
Someone posted in this thread, about Taiwan talking about their oil reserves.

If there is a blockade, like there is one now for at least 4 days, Taiwan will run out of oil in two months or sooner.

We know what 9dashline will tell us, so this is a potentially very serious situation Taiwan finds itself in.

The PRC can turn off the taps at will, and they got to hope America will come to save them.

It is kind of odd. Taiwan does not appear to want to fight for Taiwan, but expects America to fight for Taiwan.

This is just one example, of how things will change after this exercise.

:oops::D

Its a similar situation of people that uses extreme amount of social media... they don't under stand they are the product to be sold. In the case of the Taiwanese, maybe they have some fancy for old heroic hollywood movie or drunk on american defending the idea of "global human rights/democracy"... they don't realize they are canon fodder for maintaining the first island chain to defend us global power.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Tsai: And how much will this photo shot cost?
Pelosi: Oh don't worry, it's free of charge. Won't cost you a dime?

Tsai: And you say you got my back if Xi acts up?
Pelosi: Girl, I got 2 carrier groups in the pacific. If he tries anything we'll be there in a flash.

CVN76 Officer: Sir the phone is ringing again. I think it's from Pelosi.
Captain Goldhammer: Ignore it. They are having a barbecue at Guam. We won't miss it. Helmsman!! SET COURSE FOR PORT APRA!! Let nothing stop us.

Pelosi: He didn't pick up again?
Aide: No ma'am.

Pelosi: And where are the Koreans? Where are all the paparazzi and fans?
Aide: We couldn't get in touch with them as well.

Pelosi: :mad:

If her husband sold off the stocks and paid CVN76, maybe they won't leave for Guam.
 

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
If it is a multi-day drill,PLA will clarify it. PLA always announce the duration of drills in advance,this time they didn't say it's a multi-day drill.

Really?You’re telling me that Taiwan island is surrounded Chinese navy now?Can you show me pics/maps etc ?

This drill is a disappointment to be honest. I don't see any difference from the 1996 one,or North Korea firing BM towards Japanese water. To the opponent,it's more of an annoying action than deterrence.

If you want Taiwan to feel the pressure,you need to either conduct naval or aerial exercise in those area. Or send some target drones and ships to the area,than shoot it down with SAM or ASBM,that's the way to show that you can hit moving target from far away.

Firing BMs at water is just. . . .what can I say,not that impressive or scary. As I said,it's something North Korea or any countries have
missiles could do today,PLA could do it 30 years ago. The drill didn't show any improvement in capabilitys of PLA compare to 30 years ago.

The point is that there has not been missiles fired across the strait for 30 years until today. There has not been this multi-day soft blockade as far as I can remember.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
If you want Taiwan to feel the pressure,you need to either conduct naval or aerial exercise in those area. Or send some target drones and ships to the area,than shoot it down with SAM or ASBM,that's the way to show that you can hit moving target from far away.

Firing BMs at water is just. . . .what can I say,not that impressive or scary. As I said,it's something North Korea or any countries have
missiles could do today,PLA could do it 30 years ago. The drill didn't show any improvement in capabilitys of PLA compare to 30 years ago.

Must have missed the part of the missiles flying over Taipei to hit the water...on other side of the island.
 
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