Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Barefoot

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mossen said:
There's a lot of personal attacks in this thread, so I will try to be as objective and brief as I can.

  • It's pretty clear that this is a demonstration of China's intentions in the event of an invasion
  • It won't be an amphibious assault on day 1. There will be a blockade and then massive artillery fire
  • The US probably doesn't have any counter to this even today
  • So the only real question is who will bear the highest economic cost.
  • Right now CCP judges that they have more to lose (rightfully IMO) so they choose to wait.
All in all, I think they have largely played their hand right. The only criticism I have is that the idiots at the ministry of foreign affairs should haven't lost their marbles with insane rhetoric. Xi needs to put a dampener on them.
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No, no, no, do not dampen their enthusiasm! :(
 
5unrise

5unrise

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sheogorath said:
Doesnt that mean they, likewise, can't be used against mainland China?
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Well if they are destroyed they definitely cannot be used right?... at least if they survive they can serve some function, for example striking at PLAN assets that try to surround Taiwan from the eastern side. The thinking is that if Taiwan can hold onto the eastern side along with the port of Hualien, that is one necessary precondition for US forces to arrive. On the flip side, if PLAN aircraft carriers can wreck the eastern bases at will, that will be nearly impossible to recover from.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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FairAndUnbiased said:
There were some unhinged Taiwanese nationalists who kept saying that despite well known laws of physics, SRBMs cannot overfly mountains and that the eastern side of Taiwan is a fortress.

So much for that.
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Then what do they claim in response to the news (from Taiwanese news media themselves) that those Dongfeng missiles hitting the waters east of Taiwan? Meteorites?
 
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xypher

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Lnk111229 said:
Well, just wish PLA have H-20 at this moment. Man can you guys image Stealth Bomber fly above island from South to North. Each big city of island the bomber drop a tons of leaflet wrote: your defense system is joke, image this is a 500kg bomb etc. Lol
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Not really, all the advanced weaponry should be hid unless China plans to start the real thing. For example, if they start using HSGVs, then it might indicate that they plan something beyond drills. Otherwise, it is just giving off unnecessary information.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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tankphobia said:
I feel like the narrative of the US being a declining power is way overblown in this thread, the most terrifying thing about the American empire is not its front facing presidents and unending list of problems that people think would sink it, it is the army of cold, calculating strategists behind the scene that sets out the overall geopolitical strokes of the country to dominate both its allies and foes alike. Playing its allies off against its enemy and never having to suffer too high a cost to achieve its aims.

Despite all the efforts of its rivals for the past 200+ years, it has not only endured and prospered, but also remain the most powerful military force for 70 years and counting. We may never get another geopolitical chess master like Eisenhower, but rest assured their foreign department is as shrewd as back in the yesteryears when the US would roll over central America to get cheaper fruit. Now only more subtle in its methods so that they can call on their allies that they will stab in the back, all while they enjoy more popularity than ever in terms of soft power. Nothing the US is currently facing is an existential threat to its existence, neither is any problems that are facing China at the moment.

The chess board is never and will never be fair for China, to become No.1 China will need both hard and soft power, so far in terms of soft power China is heavily dependent on transactions with no lasting allegiance from its clients, its non-interference policy stopping the transfer of culture that makes the US soft power so powerful, ask any Chinese person and they could probably name 100 things from pop-culture that is of American origin, the inverse on the other hand, you'll struggle to get more than Chinese takeaway and Pandas. To replace America China must reform its propaganda arm to spread it's culture around the world, there are a million things that are way more interesting about Chinese art and history that would put the fake qigong and unscientific traditional Chinese medicine cashcow to shame.

If China can convince the peoples of the second and third world that Chinese culture and by extension its government is superior to the Western narrative, it would go a long way towards the aim of displacing the US, no amount of chest thumping and wolf warrior diplomacy is going to achieve that goal any faster.
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This is where Russia comes in, though unfortunately not due to Chinese competence. RT has been making China look good way more than CGTN.

One thing I noticed was that the US pop culture that people like around the world is mostly old stuff. Friends, a show than ended almost 20 years ago, is seen as the default American culture. Most of their recent TVs and movies are all inwards looking, and have never reached their 90s zenith.

I would say that US soft power is basically coasting. Everything is now a remake of a remake.
 
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