A slight off-topic detour, but I've been meaning to ask - is there a meaningful amount of people in the intelligence and defense industry that read SDF? Asking for a friend....
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Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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A slight off-topic detour, but I've been meaning to ask - is there a meaningful amount of people in the intelligence and defense industry that read SDF? Asking for a friend....
I think it's more because they're attuned to the administration as a whole and not Pelosi, and it's clear that Biden and the bureaucracy didn't want this visit to happen (for the reasons we're seeing now). Western media are incredibly well-regimented state propaganda and they push their masters' messages effortlessly. Contrast that with China's pitiable "state" media that is so far removed from centers of power that they don't even know when to threaten, much less what to threaten.
Being in Mainlands own territorial waters is now construed as circling the strait lol
Yes, there is a Chinese UAV that (allegedly) overflew Kinmen Island some hours ago.
Flares were launched in response to that, just like last time on another ROC-ruled island.
Then they have to get permission from the US who will be fight that war for them. So again it’s US vs China. NATO has little assets on that region. They will be bogged down with land based weapons funding to defend against Russia for a while. Also I remember someone mentioning that article 5 is non binding if the member country initiated the conflict, but don’t quote me on that.
That’s the strategy. The objective is to make progress toward reunification not to punish Taiwan or the US. In fact it would be foolish to directly engage the US. Nobody is ready for a clash between nuclear powers, not China, not the US.
If there is no action from China. But after the Pelosi visit China will probably has significantly more military presence around Taiwan following the exercise, and it could become a routine. And the western media is surprisingly silent about it. Because of all the warnings China issued before the visit, any action afterwards is actually “preannounced and justified”. China is now able to advance militarily without many push back (and some support even) from the rest of the world. So try fighting the warships and missiles with the “reinforced opinions”.
I secretly think that it is a good thing that those politicians come and we should probably encourage them a little bit. It’s a win-win situation. The politicians get their street cred, and China gets to act “provoked” and slice another piece of salami. More important the politician, bigger the slice. And I figure there is only around 2-3 pelosi-sized slices left.
I just got a crazy idea... what if Beijing bribed the Taiwanese people to vote for unification? Let's say it will offer 1.5 million NTD for every person conditional on the unification actually happening, which works out to be around 7.5 trillion RMB. I mean, it's damn expensive, but surely that will sway enough people (most don't care)! 7.5 trillion RMB might seem like a lot, but it is only a small percentage of Chinese annual GDP, and probably far cheaper than the cost of military action...
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