14. The job at hand right now is to lay out the economic and political realities of how things will turn out if the DPP is allowed to continue with its insanity [...]
Xiangyu's analysis about the DPP's potential strategy within this decade is interesting, although I have to disagree on the high probability that the US will not intervene. This recent Taiwan-US provocation has emboldened it's leaders and nationalists and therefore the PLA needs to accelerate its modernization to decrease the chances that the US military may intervene in the event that Taiwan declares independence and forceful reunification is required.
I seriously doubt that the US will intervene in a mainland invasion of Taiwan.
The reason is the precision strike weapons.
Look a the Russia Ukraine war. Precision strike weapons work. Find the target, and it will be hit, and probably destroyed by one hit. Back in the distant past, the original Gulf War, between Iraq and Iran, both sides were buying Silkworm missiles from the PRC, and they were using it to hit the other side's oil tankers. Even back then Chinese missiles worked. They probably improved a little at least since then. Everyone is using them those more advanced weapons.
What will happen in this type of war today, with two adversaries with modern weapons, the precision strike will turn this into a war of attrition. Just like Russia and Ukraine.
The United States coming to defend Taiwan, they will lose something. An arm or a leg, or maybe more.
Americans dying in large numbers for Taiwan?
That sounds completely off.