Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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manqiangrexue
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Simply not a valid argument. This trip was a low-hanging fruit and a cheap shot by the US. Send an old woman on a plane; as long as China doesn't shoot her down and start war, it's mission accomplished. Saying that anything can happen because this happened is like saying you were able to cross the street safely so anything can happen; maybe you can take over the world. Besides, what the hell does that mean anyway? Anything can happen... so we have to waste our time talking about anything and everything instead of things that are likely and supported by trends?
Did it? Which sane country thought China was going to shoot her down? There was really no appropriate immediate answer yesterday. If they killed her, that's crazy. If they failed to divert her flight, then they failed. What else is there? Strength and will are shown in development of the country. It would be very much like China if in the coming months, we saw that China had used this incident to create a new norm in its military operations around the ROC that makes it much easier to conceal invasion in the future despite seemingly backing out of a direct challenge. Maybe that, maybe something else. Gain something real instead of an empty victory cry. We'll see.
Who would what?
Uh... China was split when the civil war never resolved because Mao didn't finish Chiang off and let him escape to an island. The US didn't split anybody
What does that even mean? How is China supposed to have power over the US? To actually threaten it into submission, you need to be beyond a peer power. The other choices are to either give them something in concession to trade for the trip to be off, which is moronic and giving the US exactly what it wants, or to shoot her down. Only an idiot would feel that this shows China any weakness on China's part.
China makes threats; Americans analyze them into what they think they might mean and prepare. A week goes by and nothing happens and Americans celebrate China backing off. Then a few months-a year later, they realize the Chinese f-ed them. That's exactly what happened in the trade war. Hot heads here were saying we signed a Plaza Accord, got colonized, it's a bitter pill we had to swallow. They don't say shit anymore because the US went into recession twice while China kept growing.
Why are we discussing Taiwan being a UN member when it's not and nothing is pointing to it becoming one? This is a total waste of time. And like I said, it doesnt matter what Taiwan is; as long as China is strong enough, the Western world will shouting at the tops of their heads in protest but life is life regardless of the law and they don't want to fight. China will either wait for tomorrow since it is growing or it will fight if it needs to because the conflict has been pushed to today. Nobody's laws have anything to do with it.
So far, every time a major country tried to attack another major country ecnomically, it has injured itself while the defender was largely protected. This happened when the US started the trade war and it happened again when the Anglosphere sanctioned Russia. Economies are stronger in defense and are better serving people than as weapons. They are stronger shields than they are swords, and besides, one of the biggest mistakes of the US against China is showing its hand and ramping up its attacks, basically acclimating China to them slowly. If all out conflict happens, China should not make the same mistake; it should be all out 0-100 in a day, every trick saved from rare earth to export ban at once.
If we don't need to, we will not. We will wait. But if the ROC declares independence and we can wait no longer, then we must. Alternatively, and much more likely, when China reaches a critical point where it is dominant without question, then it's time.
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It should tell you something that even Taiwan last second realized what a disaster it was and tried to get her to fuck off, only for her to assert her Karen authority and force them to recieve her anyways.
So even the undisputed own goal scoring champion among all provinces didn't want to score this goal.
Last second? There's no way anyone in Taiwan thought this was a good idea at any point. How could Pelosi visiting have benefitted Taiwan in any way?
The only reason this happened is because America (or Pelosi herself) pushed it through.
CGTN doesn't seem to have it at least, Idk about the local provincial channels there's dozens of them.
However, I've since sources that Taiwan now has to talk with neighbors how to send goods through different routes because how the exercises are affecting them.
Any further actions will probably be announced by the ministry of defence.
However, I've since sources that Taiwan now has to talk with neighbors how to send goods through different routes because how the exercises are affecting them.
Any further actions will probably be announced by the ministry of defence.
"Low hanging fruit"....? This is much harder to tackle than a USN Carrier Group, by several orders of magnitude. The British set the stage for the US by exporting English all over the planet, and this is why their 'PR'/culture auto-translates. People around the world are most influenced by American 'PR' that isn't even meant for them, but their domestic audience. That's how powerful this effect is (people get co-opted by peripheral splash effects, not even direct targeting.) Trivializing this problem doesn't help. This is their 'Matrix' and we are all in it. Personally, I think there's only one system on this planet which will eventually reformat Western civ (and it's not Chinese) but all this 'PR' stuff OT. That's not the problem China needs to solve here in Taiwan.
The actual "crisis" here is one of economic co-dependence with your enemy. Whichever side can effectively insulate itself of the other economically, while dominating both capital and production, will be able to dictate its own terms. This contest is beyond Operations. Generals/Admirals aren't the main players on this board. This is primarily a Strategic/Economic conflict at this point in history. Note: That doesn't mean it can't get kinetic (it can, at any point, even stochastically).
Information is thin. Don’t think we’ll see anything concrete about these exercises until daytime in that time zone, which is evening in the Western Hemisphere.
Also searched and didn't find anything. In any case, we will have to wait for them to start (btw anyone knows the day and time?)
Meanwhile, here is the current maritime traffic in Taiwan. We can use this, and then compare the traffic during the exercises to see if blockade happens or not
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