@Overbom It depend bro, for me and my family, I'm glad, we may live another day. IF somebody provoke you and know no shit on how to defend yourself then you're stupid to fight. And we know all of this is a Kabuki show, we have a lot of arsenal to use BUT military confrontation is not one of them, that's the reason why they want to provoke us.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Here is one of my favorite, perhaps the favorite Chinese poster from whom I learned a great deal, talking about his analysis of the Taiwan situation
Basically, he illustrated two models of operation that Chinese used to change the status quo. The Diaoyu island model and the South China Sea model.
In both models, The others initiated the change in the status quo. In the case of the Diaoyu island model, the Chinese response after the Japanese government bought the island from private hands was to mobilize public opinion, then over the years escalated until a new status quo was reached where the Chinese have de facto control over the Diaoyu island with their regular patrols and the Japanese were the ones backed off. In the South China Sea model, after the court at the Hague ruled that all the SCS islands do not belong to China, and the U.S. sent in our two carriers under commander Harry Harris, the Chinese escalated with a full military confrontation and the U.S. backed down.
In the current case with Taiwan, the Chinese were combining these two models. They make a lot of threats so if Nancy backs down, they would have succeeded using the SCS model. If Nancy was determined to go, they would switch over to the Diaoyu island model where the Chinese would escalate this, over many years until the Taiwanese military space is completely suppressed.
What the Chinese government did not count on were two things, first, the public, as do I, have changed our expectation of the Chinese government and assume that this would be a sort of SCS model where there would be a confrontation. Secondly, the response from the U.S. has been extremely weak. Many in the establishment were against the trip by Nancy. This further led the Chinese public to believe the Chinese government should go with the SCS model. The Chinese government did not think through the interaction of these factors, resulting in a very big lost of face through the event.
Basically, he illustrated two models of operation that Chinese used to change the status quo. The Diaoyu island model and the South China Sea model.
In both models, The others initiated the change in the status quo. In the case of the Diaoyu island model, the Chinese response after the Japanese government bought the island from private hands was to mobilize public opinion, then over the years escalated until a new status quo was reached where the Chinese have de facto control over the Diaoyu island with their regular patrols and the Japanese were the ones backed off. In the South China Sea model, after the court at the Hague ruled that all the SCS islands do not belong to China, and the U.S. sent in our two carriers under commander Harry Harris, the Chinese escalated with a full military confrontation and the U.S. backed down.
In the current case with Taiwan, the Chinese were combining these two models. They make a lot of threats so if Nancy backs down, they would have succeeded using the SCS model. If Nancy was determined to go, they would switch over to the Diaoyu island model where the Chinese would escalate this, over many years until the Taiwanese military space is completely suppressed.
What the Chinese government did not count on were two things, first, the public, as do I, have changed our expectation of the Chinese government and assume that this would be a sort of SCS model where there would be a confrontation. Secondly, the response from the U.S. has been extremely weak. Many in the establishment were against the trip by Nancy. This further led the Chinese public to believe the Chinese government should go with the SCS model. The Chinese government did not think through the interaction of these factors, resulting in a very big lost of face through the event.
Yep it's just the cope of the paper tiger. Taiwanese planes should fly right through.That is futile Chinese military posturing.
As we know, Pelosi will solve everything.
In the woke world, the Karen is king.
She is even able to put the toothpaste back into the tube.
I know Iran wants China to start a war with US to alleviate some pressure. Any word from Russia yet?Well, I guess this ain't happening for now...
Thanks. This is informative and interesting take on the events
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Even though I said I was pessimistic that China wouldn't do anything if Pelosi lands in Taiwan, it's still isn't over. I'm still pessimistic though. If it was some Chinese official that talked about a No-Fly zone or shooting down Pelosi's plane and China wasn't going to do that... then they should've STFU. That was an unearned run they handed to the West.
What's the point of these military exercises? If they're not destroying strategic targets, it's as meaningless as threatening to shoot down Pelosi's plane knowing that you're not going to do it. The reason I'm pessimistic is because China doesn't even do the things that the West can't use their military in retaliation. Like I said before why not stop selling rare earths to the West. Why wait until they can manage to make the blow less severe for them? Their prices go up at a macro level even if they refine their own. Make them hurt more by denying them now. If you haven't heard, the West is openly admitting to wanting to destroy the Chinese economy. Why? Because it's too much competition for them to handle. Really, is that a legitimate excuse? China should be working to destroy them like they openly admit they want done to China.
What's the point of these military exercises? If they're not destroying strategic targets, it's as meaningless as threatening to shoot down Pelosi's plane knowing that you're not going to do it. The reason I'm pessimistic is because China doesn't even do the things that the West can't use their military in retaliation. Like I said before why not stop selling rare earths to the West. Why wait until they can manage to make the blow less severe for them? Their prices go up at a macro level even if they refine their own. Make them hurt more by denying them now. If you haven't heard, the West is openly admitting to wanting to destroy the Chinese economy. Why? Because it's too much competition for them to handle. Really, is that a legitimate excuse? China should be working to destroy them like they openly admit they want done to China.
1. Very nice analysis.
2. The public can go do something else. I really do mean that.
The public reaction was ridiculous. This is serious business, well sort of serious when it comes to Pelosi and her broomstick. But the public reaction was exactly how the average sports fan reacts when their favourite loses their game!
Really, that was all it was.
This is not spectator sports, the Taiwan question.
The word sports fan, the fan part, that from what I understand, derives from the word fanatic.
That is what it is.
And the fanatic will always give the coach, or in this case, the Politburo advice.
A famous football coach once said, "Do not listen to what the fans are saying in the stands. For if you listen to them, soon you be sitting with them."
Not trying to offend anyone here, just for laughs, about some serious tension, apparently.
Armchair quarterbacks. They all think they are Brady or Maholms.
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That map, from People's Daily, is kind of obscene.
We really got to watch and try to find out how those current exercises go.
It is like the PLA almost saying that they can finish off Taiwan any time they want.
Lastly, it is that expression. If one is going to use their fist, do not show it.
The PLA revealing what it will do to Taiwan (because they have no chance there). No such luck on how they will handle the Americans, leaving someone in the dark.
The strategic picture is serious now for the PRC. To me, it was the equipment directed at India, which probably was unnecessary. That told me loud and clear, the CCP expected trouble elsewhere. So they put in extra weapons directed against India, to limit the chances of trouble starting there. They were right.
Trouble came on a broomstick riding Karen.
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Kadyrov mock China for lack of solid respond to US provocation but that's about it.
So far, I think Russia prefer China to keep their economic momentum and able to bail them out of sanction.
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