This is a fallacy to believe that the will of the invaded matter in the long run. Taiwan was invaded and taken brutally by the Japanese and now is one of the most Japan friendly region in the world. Islam conquer the world with its sword and brutality, but the descendants of those that fought the invasion is now the most faithful adherents of the faith. Hong Kong had probably more than half of the population and most of the young out fighting the 'dictatorship'. Now they quickly changed after just a law passed. Once conquered, militarily or otherwise, Taiwan will go the same way. It might take some time, maybe even decades, but we will soon see the kids that grew up under the Chinese rule fighting with their parents about their identity as Chinese or Taiwanese.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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broadsword
Brigadier
Honestly it's simple and some smarter members need to chill a bit and understand a few things.
PRC has been threatening AR for the past decades just so taiwan doesn't overstep red lines. This is effective still even today. No red lines are overstepped by either US or Taiwan.
PRC threatened action on this occasion in the hopes of getting Pelosi to cancel her visit. It didn't work maybe US knows no plan from china to carry through with threats maybe they don't care either way and maybe their hoped PRC would get involved militarily and use that as a reason to isolate china as much as the western world is able to.
This means threats are less effective but red lines are still maintained and not overstepped.
Primary task for PRC is to surpass the US economically, industrially, technologically, and militarily. The gap has never been smaller than it is and it's shrinking.
Does getting involved in years long occupation war in Taiwan help PRC with that primary task? No.
Are there costs to getting red lines overstepped? Yes. But even the. I'd argue the cost is lower than the other. Have those lines been crossed? No.
Are there costs to Pelosi's visit? Yes. Are they important? Much, much less than some members are thinking. It's precedented. uS affirms one china policy, no military escalation from US to challenge if you will. It even seems like either they opened the doors in encouragement of AR. Quite a suspicious thing they didn't mobilise much if at all really. One carrier is always there. They were welcoming a hit. Be cautious. Everything is played off image for the western powers and they certainly reiterated how this event should mean little to china even though we know better.
If China achieves the goals of comprehensively surpassing the US in all major spectrums, then the issue solves itself... Peacefully.
I Taiwan does overstep red lines, AR may indeed be forced if it is in balance in China's favour. Even a declaration of independence may not force ccps hand truth be told as it seems ccp has no interest in going to war. Taiwan delivering independence AND hosting US troops and offensive weaponry then sure no doubt it is the end of the road, PLA ready or not.
Let's see if Taiwan declares independence. I put it 50/50 ccp actually doesn't make the moves even after that, only before or during Taiwan hosting US weapons.
Prior to what's been shown, the facade of promise of AR was just there to buy PRC time to rise and get all the foundations done. They have been and the facade has been dismantled. This means indepdence is on the cards but will PRC invade then? We'll see. For now those red lines aren't even being treaded on despite what members are making it out to be like.
PRC has been threatening AR for the past decades just so taiwan doesn't overstep red lines. This is effective still even today. No red lines are overstepped by either US or Taiwan.
PRC threatened action on this occasion in the hopes of getting Pelosi to cancel her visit. It didn't work maybe US knows no plan from china to carry through with threats maybe they don't care either way and maybe their hoped PRC would get involved militarily and use that as a reason to isolate china as much as the western world is able to.
This means threats are less effective but red lines are still maintained and not overstepped.
Primary task for PRC is to surpass the US economically, industrially, technologically, and militarily. The gap has never been smaller than it is and it's shrinking.
Does getting involved in years long occupation war in Taiwan help PRC with that primary task? No.
Are there costs to getting red lines overstepped? Yes. But even the. I'd argue the cost is lower than the other. Have those lines been crossed? No.
Are there costs to Pelosi's visit? Yes. Are they important? Much, much less than some members are thinking. It's precedented. uS affirms one china policy, no military escalation from US to challenge if you will. It even seems like either they opened the doors in encouragement of AR. Quite a suspicious thing they didn't mobilise much if at all really. One carrier is always there. They were welcoming a hit. Be cautious. Everything is played off image for the western powers and they certainly reiterated how this event should mean little to china even though we know better.
If China achieves the goals of comprehensively surpassing the US in all major spectrums, then the issue solves itself... Peacefully.
I Taiwan does overstep red lines, AR may indeed be forced if it is in balance in China's favour. Even a declaration of independence may not force ccps hand truth be told as it seems ccp has no interest in going to war. Taiwan delivering independence AND hosting US troops and offensive weaponry then sure no doubt it is the end of the road, PLA ready or not.
Let's see if Taiwan declares independence. I put it 50/50 ccp actually doesn't make the moves even after that, only before or during Taiwan hosting US weapons.
Prior to what's been shown, the facade of promise of AR was just there to buy PRC time to rise and get all the foundations done. They have been and the facade has been dismantled. This means indepdence is on the cards but will PRC invade then? We'll see. For now those red lines aren't even being treaded on despite what members are making it out to be like.
Sorry to ask this, but what makes you think that at very moment Taiwan is allowed to go independent, the US would never twist the hands of the Taiwanese government into allowing the US to build military bases and station their troops and equipment on the island?
Remember that of all the islands in the First Island Chain, Taiwan Island is the closest to mainland China. Taiwan Island is also the best place for any foreign powers to point their daggers right at China's heart, right at 1.4 billion Chinese people - Do you know that?
Do you happen to know that China is literally surrounded by enemies that are dreaming every single day for China to disintegrate into millions of pieces?
Do you?!
And can you provide us with an absolute guarantee - that the US would never sneak nuclear bombs and nuclear-tipped missiles into their military base on Taiwan?
Can you provide us with an absolute guarantee - that no Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 would ever happen to China?
Can you?!
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No I cannot and that would be the point at which AR is truly justified.
AR honestly is not justified for a visit from a diplomatic like let's all come down to earth.
The US might have correctly estimated that ccp are not crazy or bloodthirsty. To be honest this is personally a huge plus in my mind that the CCP is strongly till now not proven to be a nutjob leadership hellbent on war despite little trespass. The ccp was never going for AR just for Pelosi's visit but the facade needs to be in place jist in case it can work to scare them off. It's like standing your ground as a brown bear bluff charges you. If that fails then you get out the bear spray and if that fails, then the gun.
What Russians Iranians, forum members here and Indians want out of this is war. They all want it for different reasons but let's just keep in mind what the prize is.
Honestly I am quite surprised at some members. It's rhetoric for a purpose.
AR is reserved for the situations you described and even before it but certainly not for a visit and no red lines were crossed. Many of you just want to retake Taiwan. I understand the sentiment but after the event the rhetoric is proven to be rhetoric for the purpose I described.
I get PRC needing to resolve this civil war and while I'd personally only want that to be done peacefully (ignoring justified AR situations), many of you don't see it that way but that's fine right. Let's simply disagree on those points.
Just keep in mind AR means Chinese people brutalizing Chinese people. It's hellish and brings out the worst of people. If it's a matter of India invading established Chinese territory by all means go Satanic. That's justified defence. This is a much trickier situation and the best way to think of it is two warring Chinese kingdoms. It may be brutalizing one another but it doesnt need to come to that at all. So far from it. It would be a shame and a bit of a civilizational loss/defeat.
Ccp doesn't want to be doing that. Good honestly. If pushed by the situations described I'll shut up and cry for fellow Chinese on the other end of the political spectrum. Ccp needs to drag US in if it goes on that AR. No matter what be sure to drag the US in otherwise it's a Ukraine Russia shitshow of internal bleeding with the US laughing all the way to the bank.
Don't be stupid. China till date has not yet been pushed to any of those situations the lightest of which would be Taiwan declaring independence. There's a chance of internal overthrow DPP or coup if that were on the agenda and made.
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Well they didn't need to wait for 8 months. 3 months would have been long enough. They only started to act shortly after TASS (Russian media) reported the Galwan skirmish based on the Indian narrative.
since you are such a expert at Huitai, can you shed me some more details regarding those "Fatcats".
They acted after 8 months because that was exactly when the negotiations for the buffer zones were concluded ... In China's favour I might add.
If they released the embarrassing photos to India before extracting buffer concessions from Indians, there is slight chance the Indians would agree. Political pressure on Modi would have been immense. After the deals the indian side could sell the whole thing off to their bhakts as victory somehow. Then release photos. It was indeed perfectly done albeit dragged out. So like a good movie, requires more than one viewing and knowing the full picture first before re-analysing.
During those months it was indeed unclear but with hindsight it was handled well.
Good Twitter thread. We are in this for the long haul
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