Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Status quo is gone and so is the centreline of the cross strait. Expect chinese force to breath down the neck of Taiwan from now on.

The ball is in Taiwan Court whether to fire the first shot which will result in full scale invasion

Peaceful reunification is no longer the linchpin of china's Taiwan policy.

Agree fully and completely with what you are saying.

A most excellent post, because you did not waste a single word to get the exact point across.

:D
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
On topic though.

Honestly the greatest present danger right now would be Xi's third term due to misunderstanding and ccp internal political enemies. If xi knows what he's doing and the choices made are best and for the best the danger if civilians being angry enough may backfire and actually force AR more than external forces.

If that were to happen I think it would be a Chinese and human tragedy. If all the dominoes are well aligned but they didn't account for internal hyper nationalists expecting AR, it would be quite an oversight lol. An ironic one too.

It seems from family and friends that 20% or so Chinese people who are politically motivated (or not the indifferent majority) are on social media pushing for ccp to respond with military action if not AR.

Luckily the majority are not insane.

Think about how many Russians online are abusing ukrainians (and vice versa of course) calling them hohols etc and in their minds justifying the deaths of innocent civilians. Is this the sort of future we want for China? The present holder of the mandate of heaven so to speak. This is what war certainly would bring about.

Alright yeah some people are saying it's necessary but please review what's happening and rethink the trespass. Ask yourself if red lines have even been touched. Diving right into this conflict may be necessary and I hold that position but if it is, let it be truly justified and ensure you can defeat the US and ensure you can place costs on the US. Make sure this is not simply a china on china action otherwise you let the true instigator go unpunished.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
@supersnoop bro is that in NY?

I believe it’s Taiwan (got the pic from a friend)

And the average age of those people is like 72.

There is no way to be certain, but I feel anecdotally that the lack of younger pro mainland folks is because those people are on the mainland. It’s just a matter of simple economics for the most part. Mainland jobs just pay better for the most part.
 

HereToSeePics

Junior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
like I said previously, depend of how much PLA can push this exercise.

I think that's the part where most people are missing the forrest for the trees. The zones delineated by China for the drills are the closest to Taiwan's shores than they've been in modern history, roughly 10km/6miles at some points - the distance covered by a subsonic fighter in less than 45 seconds kind of close.

Right now, China's adversaries are still high from pulling off the Nancy stunt and view China's military drills as a natural reaction of China helplessly lashing out. But had China conducted exercises with that kind of proximity to the island at any time prior to the current events, there would be massive diplomatic protests from western nations, recalling of diplomates and possibly even sanctions.

Ultimately this event enables China to set a new norm to egress into those areas in the future at will and claim that since no one protested last time, they have the precedence to exert control over it. Taiwan and Nancy got some media boost, China got some territorial boost.


Shouldn't we be concerned such exercises will push Taiwan into declaring independence, as some forum members are so worried about ?

Then immediate armed reunification it is. Reunification will happen one way or another
 

sequ

Major
Registered Member
Well, I guess this ain't happening for now...

FZKPcbxXwAIFuFy
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Ultimately this event enables China to set a new norm to egress into those areas in the future at will and claim that since no one protested last time, they have the precedence to exert control over it. Taiwan and Nancy got some media boost, China got some territorial boost.

Yeah, exactly, that is how I see it too, agree completely.

That is why I suspect that all those threats to shot down that witch's broomstick was all misdirection.

Okay, that's it folks, nothing to see here.

:D
 
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