Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Scchwerter_ said:

Dangerous definitely, but if you take China’s (Chinese military to be exact) perspective, being able to exercise military presence so close to Taiwan does merit some celebration. To be able to put much more pressure on Taiwan and normalize military actions basically within arms reach of the island would be a big step.

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The best thing the U.S military can do right now is: DO NOTHING. Just let the Chinese do their military exercises and DO NOTHING. DON'T EVEN MOVE.

siegecrossbow said:

Yeah then it is just a show isn't it. Letting the aircraft land is a huge miscalculation, especially after so much tough talk.

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This Pelosi trip is also just a show. Everyone on both sides spectating like this is the make or break moment for the Taiwan issue are hoping to extrude a symbolic projection into something material and real, but the material and real forced in this issue are actually quite basic and straightforward and only interact with these symbolic projections in indirect manners. Can Beijing shape decisions to dissuade Taiwan from getting international recognition is the question that matters here, not whether Pelosi lands or not. Pelosi landing isn’t the final domino to how that question gets settled. And China’s leadership would be quite foolish and myopic to think it would be. Not even Putin is *that* dense.

Lime said:

I don't think it's more dangerous than 1996.
As long as if China not determined to have a conflit with US. There is nothing dangerous compare to 1996.

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LOL. Come on man. 10X. I hope this is bluff and that map is just fake news.

dasCKD said:

We already have a massive crisis on our hands. China's military gets to be more aggressive, and the noose is tightened ever-tighter around Taiwan's neck. Militarily, this is a disaster for America and the secessionists.

PR wise, however, this is a disaster for the PRC. Not only is the international public laughing at China, even people on the mainland are outraged at how tepid the response as been so far. Whilst China might manage to salvage a PR victory in the near future, that will depend more on signaling than anything and I think most western (read: dominant) media will be clowning on China and downplaying how significant intruding on Taiwanese near-shore areas is.

This is a persistent problem with the PRC's utter ineptitude at the propaganda space. As long as they don't even have a competent propaganda mouthpiece like Russia, Qatar, or the UK does, their signaling will always be spun by the western media sources in a way that is completely outside of their control.

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Propaganda means absolute diddly squat if the reaction applies to your supposed red line is just a dog and pony show. Let's be real, people may laugh at Russia but most countries shit their pants when they think of the Russian military. Chinese military on the other hand illicits what exactly?

Biscuits said:

if the earlier posts were correct, theyre sending APCs with earlier unrevealed APS on them, which would be a weird move for just "training". It's not like 99.9% of China's population would care about such a thing if the exercises were just a PR stunt. There is some deeper reason that causes fully combat ready vehicles to be sent in large number to Fujian.

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I don’t really see them starting a war at this time, but having fully ready troops and equipment sure as hell sends a message to those with the eyes to see (AKA Taiwan government and US government)

I think this exercise is much more a show of strength to adversary militaries and a way to let PLA have more control over the Taiwan area than it is a PR affair.

tokenanalyst said:

The best thing the U.S military can do right now is: DO NOTHING. Just let the Chinese do their military exercises and DO NOTHING. DON'T EVEN MOVE.

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If Biden agreed to this as some sort of deal and rockets land around 10 KM to Taiwan then he is worse mentally than I give him credit for.

Bellum_Romanum said:

Propaganda means absolute diddly squat if the reaction applies to your supposed red line is just a dog and pony show. Let's be real, people may laugh at Russia but most countries shit their pants when they think of the Russian military. Chinese military on the other hand illicits what exactly?

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Meh, let them keep their McArthur mentality. It’s actually advantageous to China when the real fight starts.

Patchwork_Chimera said:

I mean yeah, sure, but what just happened is the equivalent of the other player getting up and smacking you in the middle of the match lol. Projecting weakness, and making yourself out to be more bark than bite is seldom a winning strategy - and opens up both sides to miscalculations in future.

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You're wrong.

Pelosi can come again in a couple of months.

After that, Pelosi can come visit Taiwan again after three months.

Pretty soon, Pelosi visiting Taiwan would be normalized like those sail by from the US Navy, which has amounted to a hill beans so far after all these years.

Meanwhile, after every provocation, one side tightens the space.

Not sure what you guys are thinking at all.

It is like you guys really do not give a hoot about Taiwan.

siegecrossbow said:

Let’s wait for the next few days before reaching any conclusions.

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Of course, I was just suggesting what might happen and not trying to jump to conclusions, sorry if it came across wrong.

Something to consider is this, if you were Xi, who’s life goal has been the reunification of Taiwan. If you were ready and about to finally pull the trigger to embark on this task, would you really want to do it according to someone else’s timetable and be seen to be doing it as a knee-jerk reactionary response?

This will be the biggest moment of Xi’s life, and I think he will be damned if he lets Pelosi steal his thunder, as would be the case of AR kicked off due to her intrusion even if she dies a fiery death.

For an event of this magnitude, I would expect Xi to personally make a speech to address the nation tomorrow, or maybe even a few days later( which would conveniently be after Pelosi leaves). If Armed Reunification is really to finally kick off, Xi will want to personally make his case and announce it to the Chinese people and the history books.

That will be the biggest moment of Xi’s life, and I think he will ge damned if he lets Pelosi steal his thunder, as would be the case of AR kicked off due to her intrusion.

This does not exclude the possibility of the announced exercises going as scheduled. That could well be a final show of force to leave Taiwan in no doubt as to the PLA’s capabilities and Xi will make one final offer to Taiwan to surrender.