Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[siegecrossbow]

The biggest thing was the "playing with fire" phrase, which was at best vaguely threatening some unspecified consequences some time in the future. People overloaded that with far more than it could bear and it became a death warrant on Pelosi.

To be honest, if the PLA regularizes these exercises on Taiwanese "territory", I'll accept that as an exacted price for Pelosi's visit.

What about the "military option" touted numerous times by Zhao Lijian and the like? If they meant military exercise, it obviously wouldn't scare off Pelosi.

 

[9dashline]

the big problem is that Chinese has not back out, I watched the 1996 Taiwan crisis and this is way bigger. I have never see China surrounding this island in such massive way. Military commanders are seriously freaking out. I think the Chinese are pushing things towards the edge to see with how much they can get away with or how close they can get towards a full fledge invasion.
One single miscalculation and we have a gigantic crisis in our hands.

Are you refering to US Military commanders or Chinese ones? or general 3rd party bystander nations?

I thought it doesnt start until the 4th? Since when did it already get underway

 

[W20]

"America's action is to support Taiwan and it's quest for freedom"

This is childish rhetoric for an underage Western kindergarten audience. Taiwan is the result of Japan and the US military empire (AngloEmpire 2.0) inherited from the British colonial empire (AngloEmpire 1.0)

No one can believe your empty big words. Just look at the appalling brutality of your fanatical Empire in "the land of Canaan" where violent Russian, Polish and Ukrainian emigrants unleashed Terror on "the people of the land" ("am ha'eretz") To found (1917/47-) "our colonial project" (Jabotinsky)

You Westerners (that is: the heirs of the British empire) are insufferable with your rhetoric, your empty words, your lies and your fantasies.

In "our colonial project" loved with passion by Nancy Pelosi there is a whole class of sub-humans corralled into guethos and you tell me you love freedom. You are sick in the head, drunk from consuming your wild fantasies.

 

[dasCKD]

the big problem is that Chinese has not back out, I watched the 1996 Taiwan crisis and this is way bigger. I have never see China surrounding this island in such massive way. Military commanders are seriously freaking out. I think the Chinese are pushing things towards the edge to see with how much they can get away with or how close they can get towards a full fledge invasion.
One single miscalculation and we have a gigantic crisis in our hands.

We already have a massive crisis on our hands. China's military gets to be more aggressive, and the noose is tightened ever-tighter around Taiwan's neck. Militarily, this is a disaster for America and the secessionists.

PR wise, however, this is a disaster for the PRC. Not only is the international public laughing at China, even people on the mainland are outraged at how tepid the response as been so far. Whilst China might manage to salvage a PR victory in the near future, that will depend more on signaling than anything and I think most western (read: dominant) media will be clowning on China and downplaying how significant intruding on Taiwanese near-shore areas is.

This is a persistent problem with the PRC's utter ineptitude at the propaganda space. As long as they don't even have a competent propaganda mouthpiece like Russia, Qatar, or the UK does, their signaling will always be spun by the western media sources in a way that is completely outside of their control.

 

[JewPizza]

people needs to calm down. Xi is going to get unprecedented 3rd term soon. nothing can change that.

another misconception, people will revolt , CPC lost its trust. it is almost impossible to disconnect CPC with Chinese people. what they have achieved in past 40 years. people who are familiar with China knows misery of PLA and economy very well back in 90's. indeed China took L this time. will harm the credibility of party and country. but CPC still stands tall.

but today's incident actually woke up CPC and they knows, what need to do. nuke arsenal might officially announce in coming years or defense budget can increase too.

I never said that people will revolt. I'm saying that China's losing in the PR department will affect Xi's chances of getting a 3rd time. Of course, we have already talked about what Xi can do to guarantee his 3rd term. My question is will the public and other CPC party members be satisfied with it.

 

[Schwerter_]

Are you refering to US Military commanders or Chinese ones? or general 3rd party bystander nations?

I thought it doesnt start until the 4th? Since when did it already get underway

The exercises officially started last (August 2nd local time) night. PLA have stated a number of exclusion zones that will be in effect from 4th to 7th, but from the looks of it that is only part of the exercise, not all of it.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

What about the "military option" touted numerous times by Zhao Lijian and the like? If they meant military exercise, it obviously wouldn't scare off Pelosi.

I don't see the point as scaring off Pelosi, but establishing the pretext for the escalatory exercise announced by the PLA. Having exclusion zones in what's considered Taiwanese "sovereign territory" is an escalation. Overall, even if the PR could have been handled better, it's no big deal - these things aren't won or lost on PR.

To be honest with you, the emotional histrionics and hyperventilation here have been far more taxing than anything Pelosi could ever do.

 

[B.I.B.]

Smaller countries see that China cannot or will not defend it's own interests so they'll play hardball in economic negotiations, sell basing rights to foreign regimes and trust a certain foreign currency.

But surely those smaller SE Asian natioins realise that China can do more for it than the US and its allies. Take Laos for example, would the US have built q fast track train in LAOs and thus given her people easier access to the surrounding countries for the export of goods? The answer s not a shit show.

 

[tokenanalyst]

This is something that should scare everyone. Is bigger, closer and bolder than in 1996, is even difficult to even interpret what this even mean. Americans commanders will have be on edge to interpret every single move to avoid doing a costly miscalculation.

Are you refering to US Military commanders or Chinese ones? or general 3rd party bystander nations?

I thought it doesnt start until the 4th? Since when did it already get underway

Americans and Taiwanese commanders.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

PR wise, however, this is a disaster for the PRC. Not only is the international public laughing at China, even people on the mainland are outraged at how tepid the response as been so far. Whilst China might manage to salvage a PR victory in the near future, that will depend more on signaling than anything and I think most western (read: dominant) media will be clowning on China and downplaying how significant intruding on Taiwanese near-shore areas is.

Worrying about PR is a waste of time. China isn't good at it since it doesn't control the high ground (dominant media) and, much more importantly, it doesn't count for shit. If you're getting clowned on Reddit and Twitter, just keep off them for a week until this blows over.

Or better yet, come to r/Sino where we have zero tolerance for any trolling.