What territory? Taiwan is a small rocky island, so is take all or take nothing, there is no piece by piece approach with Taiwan, they will to flatten everything with missiles including TSMC fabs AND THEN invade with such overwhelming force that the only way for the American to stop it would be in a nuclear exchange with China, and hoping that the Russian interpret American missiles as targeting their territory and they launch theirs against Europe and the U.S.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Okay, so Trump is a special case amongst special cases. This is actually a benefit that democracies are afforded that autocracies simply are not. If some dipsh*t politician says something in a democratic country, there's much less weight behind it as there'll be at least an imagined scenario where someone more 'competent' (read: palatable and cordial) comes along as rebalances the issue. There's also the fact that Trump is a political outsider, and so there's a perception that what he says probably won't come true or would be opposed by 'the institution' (now this is grossly inaccurate, but I would like to invite all the readers here to recall the democrat party's reaction to trump. "This isn't who we are!" and a dozen other platitudes. Point is, it works.). I'll also note that Russia's threat is seen as uncredible and, should Russia threaten Europe with something else right now apart from nuclear war, Europe would just laugh it off.
It might, it might not. I can't comment on the efficacy of something that hasn't happened yet. I can only look down at the gameboard and say that America and Pelosi walked around with a win on their move whilst China, right now, hasn't managed to get anything in return.
Interesting
Everyone in the military is panic mode right now. I was one the most reckless and stupid political moves i have ever seen. One mistake and you have a shooting war and the global economy heading towards depression.
This is the WP. not a Chinese newspaper.
Man you really drink the American Cool Aid that the US is there to protect “freedom”… It’s geopolitics my friend. The US is doing what is in its interest, and that is stopping the rise of China. Otherwise why doesn’t it defend the freedom of Palestinians? And why does it impede the freedom of Cuba or South America to choose their way of life?
It’s disgusting hypocrisy to serve its own interest and the whole world knows it.
Honestly, I don't expect any major missile flyovers until Pelosi leaves Taiwan. Beijing still wants to avoid a war with the US, but given the severity of the current crisis, it will be the Taiwanese (ultimate beneficiaries of the visit) who will bear the brunt of punishment.
And Hu Xijin needs to be banned for life
Its a Belgium sized province, not a small rocky island. Penghu is a small rocky island. There's a lot of room for small gains without declaring a complete expedition.
Here's where we disagree. I think that it's a disastrous move from a military perspective. This will make China seem weak and easily intimidated, that would lead to a lower priority for the American political class and the American public when it comes to building up a military force that can contend with China. For the people who may be sent off to die in a war against China by some uneducated cretin of an oligarch who may decide to not even fund the military properly anymore because China is seen as a paper tiger, this is obviously a massive threat.
From a political perspective, however, this is an unequivocal win for America and especially Pelosi. Pelosi has shown America that democrats, popularly thought of as the militarily weaker party, is hard on China, and she has shown the American public that China won't stand up for themselves and shown US allies in the Pacific that the US is the hegemony that can't be opposed. Now this is almost certainly a fantasy, but in the political space a pretty fantasy is much more powerful than an inconvenient reality.
Exactly this. Power is not just capability. Power is resolve + capability. Why do people fear yet trust Russia even after its bog down in Ukraine? why do Southeast Asians respect Vietnam? Because despite a lack of capability they make up for it in resolve.
Resolve means the willingness to take damage or die for your cause. That means less capability is necessary to achieve deterrence because others will see that you will drag them down with you even if they're stronger, and that you are willing to eat some pain to bury them if you're stronger. Low resolve high capability means they still won't be deterred, since all they have to do to get you to back off is bite back a little.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
If they want to become independent, then declare it. Finish the war. What's with all this pussy-footing? Before a war, borders don't change. Taiwan was and still is, admittedly in ROC's constitution, a part of China. If they want independence, they need to fight for it and win.
Then say it; what's with adhering to the One China Policy? You say you support this policy, American politicians say America does not support Taiwanese Independence, then they do these things? What's with the pussy-footing? Have the courage to speak your mind.
Actually, they are America's top concern as this trip has no meaning except to anger China. This is America's middle finger as China surpasses it in tech and sent the US into recession by its own trade war. Making China angry with empty actions are what the US has left.
Literally yes. Whenever the US can't budge China, it brings up Taiwan to piss China off. It still can't budge China and America has never committed itself to fighting for Taiwan. Taiwan's status is of no concern to the US just like Saudi Arabia's human rights record; America just wants to find ways to serve its own interest and Taiwan is just about the last place it can still get some kind of reaction from China. Too bad Mao didn't finish this long ago; now Taiwan is to China like the drug-addicted loser son of a successful businessman/politician/general that his enemies can still prey on to get to him. But we'll clean him up.
Some people are saying it could be useful pretext to normalize Chinese military presence in that direction so that when actual time to take action comes, the reaction time for enemy forces is much lower since there won't be a massive mobilization to tip them off. It's not a bad thing to gain from this but as an excuse, China needs none to end that civil war and reclaim the island that the losers are squatting on now.
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