Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

ZeEa5KPul said:

Worrying about PR is a waste of time. China isn't good at it since it doesn't control the high ground (dominant media) and, much more importantly, it doesn't count for shit. If you're getting clowned on Reddit and Twitter, just keep off them for a week until this blows over.

Or better yet, come to r/Sino where we have zero tolerance for any trolling.

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Having bad PR for China will embolden the secessionists. Having bad PR will mean that the US politicians and public thinks that China will be a pushover. Having bad PR will mean that India, the UK, Australia, and the EU will feel emboldened to get more and more aggressive with China in the coming years. China can have the best military in the world by 2030, but if the public perception is that China's weapons will fall apart like plastic toys and that Chinese soldiers will turn tail and run the moment America comes knocking then that WILL raise the risk of Taiwan officially seceding AND raise the risk of America getting kinetically involved AND raise the risk of other nations getting involved which WILL mean more Chinese lives being lost.

If China's PR and posture is good enough, the takeover of Taiwan can happen without a single bullet being fired. If it isn't, then China will be wading through what probably will be the bloodiest war in human history.

Worrying about PR is not a waste of time. Every single country or actor that China fails to intimidate through the perception of Chinese prowess and resolve is a price that the Chinese people will instead have to pay for with their treasure and blood. PR matters, even if the PRC would rather it didn't. Anyone who says otherwise is, quite frankly, just coping.

Bellum_Romanum said:

Propaganda means absolute diddly squat if the reaction applies to your supposed red line is just a dog and pony show. Let's be real, people may laugh at Russia but most countries shit their pants when they think of the Russian military. Chinese military on the other hand illicits what exactly?

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The PLA is about to go with live ammunition within 12nm close to Taiwan's main island. US military still had to leave behind Pelosi before entering Chinese airspace.

At the very least, just going off what China publicly says and assuming they don't have any surprises, Beijing is going to severely shorten it's usual movement distance from the mainland side of the median line to more or less nothing. This means much higher reaction time in the future and means diplomatic resolution may have been scrapped or at least heavily downgraded.

The American official propaganda line is clear. They view Chinese as culturally soft, unable to pose a threat due to "degeneracy" compared to the superior US spirit, just like the Germans in WW2 thought about the Allies. How to dispel this? When the time come to launch the decolonization of the West, it will be clear to Americans how much they'll die to soft and degenerate enemy soldiers, and the perception will dispel itself. Until that day, China doesn't really need to change US perceptions, only increase it's own and friendly nations' readiness.

What if this naval exercise was a pretext to actual invaison and they are actually surrounding Taiwan in the cover of naval exercise? Can china accumulate 100k + soldier for naval invaison in 2/3 days ?

siegecrossbow said:

If Biden agreed to this as some sort of deal and rockets land around 10 KM to Taiwan then he is worse mentally than I give him credit for.

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Well dude Nancy Pelosi dementia problems brought this problem, lets hope that Biden dementia can get us out of this problem.

plawolf said:

Something to consider is this, if you were Xi, who’s life goal has been the reunification of Taiwan. If you were ready and about to finally pull the trigger to embark on this task, would you really want to do it according to someone else’s timetable and be seen to be doing it as a knee-jerk reactionary response?

This will be the biggest moment of Xi’s life, and I think he will be damned if he lets Pelosi steal his thunder, as would be the case of AR kicked off due to her intrusion even if she dies a fiery death.

For an event of this magnitude, I would expect Xi to personally make a speech to address the nation tomorrow, or maybe even a few days later( which would conveniently be after Pelosi leaves). If Armed Reunification is really to finally kick off, Xi will want to personally make his case and announce it to the Chinese people and the history books.

That will be the biggest moment of Xi’s life, and I think he will ge damned if he lets Pelosi steal his thunder, as would be the case of AR kicked off due to her intrusion.

This does not exclude the possibility of the announced exercises going as scheduled. That could well be a final show of force to leave Taiwan in no doubt as to the PLA’s capabilities and Xi will make one final offer to Taiwan to surrender.

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Please god don't let this just be copium

tokenanalyst said:

Is no rhetoric, looks like this thing could get ugly the coming days.

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Nothing going to get ugly.

escobar said:

Nothing going to get ugly.

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Lets hope.

plawolf said:

This does not exclude the possibility of the announced exercises going as scheduled. That could well be a final show of force to leave Taiwan in no doubt as to the PLA’s capabilities and Xi will make one final offer to Taiwan to surrender.

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Sure, but this exercise, is not just some regular exercise, show of force.

If they do that for real - Taiwan don't got a chance, and the US Navy will not be able to mobilize in time. Provided that the exercises go well.

Some military man posted a long time ago, you fight like you exercise, and you exercise like you fight.

Let's watch the ex.

The firepower, the co-ordination, the tempo, if we can find out those things. LOL.

plawolf said:

Something to consider is this, if you were Xi, who’s life goal has been the reunification of Taiwan. If you were ready and about to finally pull the trigger to embark on this task, would you really want to do it according to someone else’s timetable and be seen to be doing it as a knee-jerk reactionary response?

This will be the biggest moment of Xi’s life, and I think he will be damned if he lets Pelosi steal his thunder, as would be the case of AR kicked off due to her intrusion even if she dies a fiery death.

For an event of this magnitude, I would expect Xi to personally make a speech to address the nation tomorrow, or maybe even a few days later( which would conveniently be after Pelosi leaves). If Armed Reunification is really to finally kick off, Xi will want to personally make his case and announce it to the Chinese people and the history books.

That will be the biggest moment of Xi’s life, and I think he will ge damned if he lets Pelosi steal his thunder, as would be the case of AR kicked off due to her intrusion.

This does not exclude the possibility of the announced exercises going as scheduled. That could well be a final show of force to leave Taiwan in no doubt as to the PLA’s capabilities and Xi will make one final offer to Taiwan to surrender.

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The only thing that lends any credit to this completely insane theory is that they haven’t tried mass deleting Pelosi related contents on Baidu… yet.

siegecrossbow said:

The only thing that lends any credit to this completely insane theory is that they haven’t tried mass deleting Pelosi related contents on Baidu… yet.

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Whatever reason its for, at this point, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say its government policy to inflame the population in the current crisis, almost as if consent is being built for something