Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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LawLeadsToPeace

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Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
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Wow 75 pages since I went to bed last night... Did she land? I'm confused. I'm watching the news and no mention of it. A few hours ago they said she was to land within the hour. Still nothing. Maybe they won't say anything until she's left. Does that make any difference unless China does nothing meaningful?
TLDR: She landed and China didn’t react. The Chinese plan to host a huge military exercise that surrounds Taiwan.
 

BoraTas

Major
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As @siegecrossbow mentioned, if they tried to intercept Pelosi's plane, they'd have to be prepared to shoot it down. I guess in the end, that was not in the cards.
There are reports on Taiwan using 40 fighters to escort her. As I said before armed flyover or NEZ will not be possible without dropping the hammer on the Taiwanese military. BTW the PLA just announced it is invading Taiwan tonight. The announced exercises are as close as Taiwan's internal waters

 

Equation

Lieutenant General
But life goes on and we fight on, much luckier than the generations before us who fought for China despite having no hope of seeing victory in their lifetimes.
Yes, those generations before us provided the Chinese people steppingstones to build upon for a greater nation and for mankind to benefit. The 5,000 years of continuing civilization of existence didn't came by being belligerent and stupid.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
You gotta stop with this assumption of anybody disagreeing with you being tidalwave’s alt. People have different opinions of this situation and you have to accept that fact.
Oh, I don't accuse people of being tidalwave alts unless I know they are, and I know @Appix @gadgetcool5 @Wangxi just off the top of my head are all alts. I disagreed a lot with @9dashline and clowned him about EROEI, but it wasn't until he recently exposed himself that I got that he was a tidalwave alt. You might not have been around during the peak tidalwave period in the semiconductor threads, so you don't know just how crazy that guy is.
 

56860

Senior Member
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Disagree with you. Think you are misrepresenting your fellow Singaporeans' viewpoints as that of the whole world.

Truth is, Singaporeans are turds who enjoy the taste of Uncle Sam's rubber boot. @dengyeye @tygyg1111
Singaporean zoomers would crawl through a mile of broken glass and Jai Hind feces to smell Uncle Sam's fart through a walkie talkie
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I say people are being premature in declaring that China ‘lost’ this round. It hasn’t even

Had they intercepted her plane and it still landed than they would have failed. The point is they didn’t even try to intercept her. That means preventing her from landing wasn’t the military options China had in mind.

Pelosi has landed in Taiwan in front of the world’s eyes. To some that’s a big loss for China. But it also means the world has seen her being the instigator of everything that follows. So it seems increasingly premature to declare that Pelosi won when China hasn’t even played its opening counter move yet.

Doing something now would have made good theatre, but would have had China dance to America’s tune in terms of timing.

I think what China does in the coming hours and days will determine how history remembers this event.

China has made a big song and dance about the visit meaning a red line is crossed, even if those exact words were not used. It would be a huge blow to the credibility of China and the PLA to backdown meekly after that.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
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Even if nothing happens apart from a few military exercises and sanctions, China is hardly doomed. The economic and social trajectories means the west will fall.

However if Xi does nothing I do see it as missing an open goal. The American state is very dysfunctional right now, it is bankrupt and nobody knows who is in charge. It's very much like the USSR in the 1980s except with more social divisions and unrest. After multiple failed wars around the world, they're now balls deep financing the most expensive (Ukraine).

You can argue about now isn't the time, but with that sort of thinking there never will be a good time to challenge American hegemony.

In Afghanistan the Taliban spent years negotiating a withdrawal deal with the Americans. The whole time they had agreed not to attack American or NATO troops, despite the fact they were raping and killing Afghan civilians the whole time. After lots of false promises they agreed to withdraw by March last year.

When the date came the Americans ignored their promises and continued their occupation despite the Taliban keeping to their side of the deal.

What did the Taliban do? Did they sit around in their caves and think, America is too big and powerful right now, we need to wait? No they didn't...they correctly sensed America was weak and going back on a promise is something that can't go unpunished. You let that slide and the Americans will never leave.

In a few months they rounded up the ANA despite being massively outnumbered and with inferior technology, and forced the Americans to flee before their latest departure date.

Putin and the Ukraine is a similar story.

If a bunch of illiterate tribal Taliban can sense America is falling, I really find it hard to believe Xi and the CPC can't see that.
That's why instead of bothering with a token interception, they just went towards mobilizing the army against the real enemy, not America but the DPP leadership.

I wrote before that China had 2 routes, they could either straight up kill Pelosi now and dare US to do something about it, or let her leave and then make a countermove on another front after that. I also predicted the first route would only be likely if Pelosi came into Chinese airspace with foreign military fighters following her, which didn't come to pass.

So now it's China's turn and we will see just how far they intend to go.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
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Some sources say that the Chinese are moving a huge amount of medical supplies to cities on the coast with Taiwan, such as blood bags, surgery supplies, among others. I don't know if he does it to carry out military exercises, even more without disclosing it. If real, this to me is a clear indication of imminent military action.

Again, it still needs confirmation, I'm just giving a note here.

In addition, the ship Bo Hai Zhan Zhu would have landed 35 tons of this type of material in some unknown city, near Taiwan. China had dispatched two Type 052Ds to locate Ronald Reagan and after that, they retreated. Now the Chinese must trache the same via satellite.
 
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