Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Minm]

People on this forum live in a bubble where they think war is around the corner. This was never going to happen. It's not in China's interest to start a liberation of Taiwan operation now. It's in China's interest to keep the option of good relationships with the US and EU economies while using the visit to China's advantage. China will leverage the visit to normalise further military activity close to Taiwan. Exactly the same as what they've done for the diaoyu islands, exercise sovereignty slowly, one step at a time.

So far, Xi has handled the crisis quite well. He has avoided war with the US by not shooting at pelosi's plane, Chinese social media are very active and there's strong support for decisive action and the US has been shown to be the aggressor as the whole world watched them start the crisis when pelosi stepped out of her plane. Shooting her down would have made China the aggressor, which is not good if you want to justify further military action.

China promised a military response and the military exercises surrounding Taiwan are an appropriate, proportional response. The ball is now in the US's and Taiwan's court. Do they accept the PLA's right to exercise China's sovereignty in the waters around Taiwan, including in the territorial waters, or do they challenge it. If they choose to attack, they will have fired the first shot. If they don't attack, expect the PLAN to operate beyond the median line regularly and within Taiwan territorial waters occasionally. The war, if necessary, can happen later.

 

[Suetham]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554309986893074433

 

[dasCKD]

Perception doesn’t change the fact that the USA has a collapsing economy with no sign of recovery. If perception really helped, the how come the situation in Ukraine is completely in Russias favor while the west has all the support of it media. If one sees this as a critical loss of China right now, then they are playing into the hands of the USA that Pelosi’s arrival is somehow a massive victory. Does this somehow enable her to escape from investigations at home due to inside trading or is this going to somehow get people to like her more in the USA. All I can see is that more and more people will care less and less about optics and more and more about the cost of living at home. One thing to note, this situation has shown how reliant Taiwan is for the USA to defend the island as opposed to having any real inmate defence so really, let’s wait and see how things play out. If China does completely nothing in regards to her arrival, then maybe their are problems that need to be ironed out, but if China uses this as a reason to basically turn up the dials on the US economy and proceed further with the destruction of the dollar, then in the end, what has her trip accomplished other then a glorified photo op.

Perception matters far less in the Russia circumstance because, and I can't believe I need to point this out, Russia is at war. There's plenty of media spin, but the material conditions on the ground is what matters and Russia is still making considerable gains in Ukraine. Unless and until the PRC declares the continuation of hostilities with the ROC the likelihood of achieving a peaceful reunification is if the Taiwanese people and ruling elite can be convinced to believe that attempting independence will be far, far, faaaar too costly for them to even consider the thought seriously.

If China takes this chance to decouple further from the US, then good for them. There's still the issue that this will embolden the secessionists and also encourage the likes of India, Japan, the UK, and Australia to poke at China more in the future. In a world full of bullies, you need to be seen as a threat to be left alone. If China doesn't have perception on their side, then the only recourse they have is to either start sanctioning, and hurt their own economy, or to start shooting. Either, in my view, is a failure of diplomacy on their part.

 

[cn_habs]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554309986893074433

Please stop posting old news as the number of Taiwanese supplied being banned is over 2k now.

 

[Equation]

888 Rodeo Drive, Beverly Hills, California. You know I just had to pay extra for that 888 property.

What about these folks here?

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[texx1]

General sentiment on chinese social media is disappointment as expected

Some funny comments I saw described it as watching a game of chinese men's football team

Some are saying they're starting to prefer putin's style of doing things

Some are saying they're so angry they can't fall asleep

The most funny comment I read was the joke about Zhonghua brand cigarette.

 

[siegecrossbow]

The most funny comment I read was the joke about Zhonghua brand cigarette.

Only soft Zhonghua, no hard Zhonghua?

 

[Abominable]

Even if nothing happens apart from a few military exercises and sanctions, China is hardly doomed. The economic and social trajectories means the west will fall.

However if Xi does nothing I do see it as missing an open goal. The American state is very dysfunctional right now, it is bankrupt and nobody knows who is in charge. It's very much like the USSR in the 1980s except with more social divisions and unrest. After multiple failed wars around the world, they're now balls deep financing the most expensive (Ukraine).

You can argue about now isn't the time, but with that sort of thinking there never will be a good time to challenge American hegemony.

In Afghanistan the Taliban spent years negotiating a withdrawal deal with the Americans. The whole time they had agreed not to attack American or NATO troops, despite the fact they were raping and killing Afghan civilians the whole time. After lots of false promises they agreed to withdraw by March last year.

When the date came the Americans ignored their promises and continued their occupation despite the Taliban keeping to their side of the deal.

What did the Taliban do? Did they sit around in their caves and think, America is too big and powerful right now, we need to wait? No they didn't...they correctly sensed America was weak and going back on a promise is something that can't go unpunished. You let that slide and the Americans will never leave.

In a few months they rounded up the ANA despite being massively outnumbered and with inferior technology, and forced the Americans to flee before their latest departure date.

Putin and the Ukraine is a similar story.

If a bunch of illiterate tribal Taliban can sense America is falling, I really find it hard to believe Xi and the CPC can't see that.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Circa Jan 2021 that property was for lease lol. Are you... renting... a beverly hills luxury home? That's like leasing a supercar lol.

You really oughta be putting that kinda money towards something that'll hold it's value, rather than poof out of existence when your lease is up!

Lol, not sure if you're being serious. But please don't go bothering people on that property. I'm sure they mean no harm to China.

 

[Dante80]

If I may wager a guess, we will continue seeing more posturing and sabre-rattling from all sides in the immediate future.
One possible reading of the upcoming PLA military exercises starting after the delegation leaves would be to view them as a messaging medium both towards ROC and the region itself.

American delegations come, and go. But here we are, we are not going anywhere. We live here and you live with us.