Re: J-20 The New Generation Fighter Thread IV
Phrase it however you wish, Gates said what he said, and made very critical decisions regarding US defense based on those things, latenlazy.
He may have known more...but if he did, he did not say so at the time. He was made to look the fool to the American people at the very least. And the F-22 had been shut down, an aircraft that should still be being produced, because he indicated there was not going to be any need of it.
Do you think the PRC will stop their production of J-20s at 185 aircraft once they go into production?
I do not think that the F-22 was shut down because Gates thought that there would be no competing designs until 2020 (After all, even if they didn't anticipate the J-20, there was still the T-50, which every military analyst seemed to have more confidence), nor do I think he based his decision over the F-22 on when China would or wouldn't be getting their own stealth fighter. There were MUCH bigger reasons that relate to both the military and national budgets, cost overruns of the program, and (from what I gathered at the time of the F-22's shutdown) costs related to how difficult it was to upgrade the platform, and the compounding effect of making the F-35 not only the lo option, but an alternative to replace the USAF's aging fleet from conception. At best whether other countries were fielding competing designs played at the margins. Either way, the way I see it, if the need were absolutely there they could restart the F-22's production (though it would be costly), or expedite the development of a future platform. I was dismayed that the F-22 was cancelled, but the reasons for it are not invalid.
Truth be told, I do not think the PRC will produce any more than 200 or 300 J-20s (I could be completely wrong of course), in part because their 4.5 generation fighters are newer frames that will have decades more use in them so there's no pressure to replace aging planes, and in part because they need such a capable fighter to only fulfill regional concerns, and not global ones.