East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

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port_08

Junior Member
Rutim said:
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A very interesting article which sheds a light on how some higher ups in China (not all - there are many factions in the Party as we all know) view Diaoyu/Senkaku problem and how they chose 'symbolism' over peace and won't budge even if that means another great war to show the world who's the boss.
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It is indeed very frightening, and portent ominous future for the region. For centuries China was a regional power and many "vassal states" at one time or another have "kow tow" or bend to the will of the middle kingdom. Therefore there are very strong believe in the country that territory that once "belong" (the rules of the strong) to China was taken away during when she was at her weakest and these propaganda if you will is willingly espouse by the ruling communist party either to build their credentials or grip of power playing nationalist sentiments.

China is a sleeping lion, Napoleon once warned. “Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world.” Then America probably still a "snotty little brat" where China was already the establish power of the old order before industrialised nation power their economic ahead and come knocking with gunboat diplomacy on her doors, what humiliation Japan and others inflicted on China, who can tell? There's a proverb saying for a gentleman to revenge, 10 years still not too late...but is a warning of revenge coming soon? Or will China follow Deng biding their time, hiding their capabilities, shelving this dispute to the next generation. Now Deng is no more, and we have a Xi (a next generation, in fact 2 generation after Deng)....who happen to love world war 2 movies, the opera and espousing a "new model" of great power relationship with Obama in a sunny Californian retreat. Xi is dreaming...the Chinese dream. PLA Navy is building up, the dragon is awakening and extending her grip, claws outreaching to the Indian Ocean and the Pacifics and lately Christmas island...and where is the dragon current gaze but on the pearls of islands she claim before and was "stolen"...while she sleeps. Very frightening.
 
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Franklin

Captain
Rutim said:
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A very interesting article which sheds a light on how some higher ups in China (not all - there are many factions in the Party as we all know) view Diaoyu/Senkaku problem and how they chose 'symbolism' over peace and won't budge even if that means another great war to show the world who's the boss.
Click to expand...

I have said it before the chances for war between China and Japan are nihil. Because neither side wants a war. And the islands are located far from each sides mainland. So far neither the Japanese and Chinese navies have been involved in the dispute. So far its only Coast Guards on both sides that are on the forefront. But i think that both sides are using the dispute for their own political purposes. Outsiders should stay out of this conflict.
 
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port_08

Junior Member
Franklin said:
I have said it before the chances for war between China and Japan are nihil. Because neither side wants a war. And the islands are located far from each sides mainland. So far neither the Japanese and Chinese navies have been involved in the dispute. So far its only Coast Guards on both sides that are on the forefront. But i think that both sides are using the dispute for their own political purposes. Outsiders should stay out of this conflict.
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But the air defense zone is covering the island itself....now, there's very real chance of escalation. It is either Japanese military that will land on the island or a Chinese military. Osprey or Zubr, amphibious warships and marines are ready. All the necessary preparation already in place or plan to be in place.

The article have a point, if a conflict arises, China believe it will be localized and would not involved a wider participants, but we are really not sure. We're talking about Japan here and not any third rate country army like the Philippines, but will PLA willing to go and will Japan retaliate and will it really be localized....terrible.
 
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Franklin

Captain
port_08 said:
But the air defense zone is covering the island itself....now, there's very real chance of escalation. It is either Japanese military that will land on the island or a Chinese military. Osprey or Zubr, amphibious warships and marines are ready. All the necessary preparation already in place or plan to be in place.

The article have a point, if a conflict arises, China believe it will be localized and would not involved a wider participants, but we are really not sure. We're talking about Japan here and not any third rate country army like the Philippines, but will PLA willing to go and will Japan retaliate and will it really be localized....terrible.
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The article is much about nothing. The reporter is quoting some unnamed "Chinese professional" at some dinner about China believing in a limited war. What does that even mean ? Does he speak on behalf of the Chinese government ? And who is this Chinese professional ?

And the Japanese is playing politics with the ADIZ. But like i said both sides are playing politics here.

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chuck731

Banned Idiot
Franklin said:
I have said it before the chances for war between China and Japan are nihil. Because neither side wants a war. And the islands are located far from each sides mainland. So far neither the Japanese and Chinese navies have been involved in the dispute. So far its only Coast Guards on both sides that are on the forefront. But i think that both sides are using the dispute for their own political purposes. Outsiders should stay out of this conflict.
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There are not just two sides even with just japan and china. There are multiple fractions with different views about war on either side.

On the Japanese side, I believe Abe belongs to a fraction that believes war with china will do japan good, give japan a sense of national purpose lacking since collapse of the Japanese miracle in the late 1980s, and give japan a plank towards once again becoming a rising and independent military and political power as well as economic power equal to the United States in the west pacific, so long as the war does not go nuclear.

Abe would directly provoke a war with china if he thinks the United States will soon be drawn in on the Japanese side and the war will be limited or BMD adaquate to prevent Chinese nuclear attack on japan proper. This fraction believes Chinese military modernization has not come close to achieving the capacity to allow Chinese military influence to survive more than a few days outside continental china proper once exposed to the focused attention of Japanese and American forces.

On the Chinese side, I believe there are vocal fractions, indirectly influential, who have been overawed by China's appearent pace of military expansion and modernization, and tends to severely underestimate the actual potency of the military and technological edge United States and japan still command. This fraction also tends to overestimate the dependency of the United States on china, underestimate the dependency of china on the United States, and also underestimate the power of the United States over other western powers should push really come to shove.

This fraction does not realize china will lose a war, nor do they understand how far back in terms of economics, global influence, and military power the United States would most assuredly set china in the aftermath of defeating china. They are in effect, if not in statements, for war, because they will push positions that if adapted by china will make war inevitable, because they think America and japan will back down when most likely neither would, and will not fold because they falsely believe china can win.
 
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Franklin

Captain
chuck731 said:
There are not just two sides even with just japan and china. There are multiple fractions with different views about war on either side.

On the Japanese side, I believe Abe belongs to a fraction that believes war with china will do japan good, give japan a sense of national purpose lacking since collapse of the Japanese miracle in the late 1980s, and give japan a plank towards once again becoming a rising and independent military and political power as well as economic power equal to the United States in the west pacific, so long as the war does not go nuclear.

Abe would directly provoke a war with china if he thinks the United States will soon be drawn in on the Japanese side and the war will be limited or BMD adaquate to prevent Chinese nuclear attack on japan proper. This fraction believes Chinese military modernization has not come close to achieving the capacity to allow Chinese military influence to survive more than a few days outside continental china proper once exposed to the focused attention of Japanese and American forces.

On the Chinese side, I believe there are vocal fractions, indirectly influential, who have been overawed by China's appearent pace of military expansion and modernization, and tends to severely underestimate the actual potency of the military and technological edge United States and japan still command. This fraction also tends to overestimate the dependency of the United States on china, underestimate the dependency of china on the United States, and also underestimate the power of the United States over other western powers should push really come to shove.

This fraction does not realize china will lose a war, nor do they understand how far back in terms of economics, global influence, and military power the United States would most assuredly set china in the aftermath of defeating china. They are in effect, if not in statements, for war, because they will push positions that if adapted by china will make war inevitable, because they think America and japan will back down when most likely neither would, and will not fold because they falsely believe china can win.
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That's just pure fantasy. I think there are very few people on either side that believes a war will be good for them or that a war between China and Japan will be limited. Except for that idiot that was quoted at the dinner. Neither side will risk a war when there are nuclear weapons and economic collapse involved for both sides. And that over a few small islands. On the other hand keeping the pot boiling is advantageous for both sides as that may distract their people from domestic issue's.
 
C

chuck731

Banned Idiot
Franklin said:
That's just pure fantasy. I think there are very few people on either side that believes a war will be good for them or that a war between China and Japan will be limited. Except for that idiot that was quoted at the dinner. Neither side will risk a war when there are nuclear weapons and economic collapse involved for both sides. And that over a few small islands. On the other hand keeping the pot boiling is advantageous for both sides as that may distract their people from domestic issue's.
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There is more than a few small island at stake.

For japan, the small island is a visceral line of demarcation. If japan can't hold it, then that would mean china can push japan around, and it would seem to diminish Japan's value to any future anti-Chinese forces, and make it seem much less likely to Japanese nationalists that japan would be able resist future Chinese bullying.

For china, the small island is also a visceral line of demarcation. If japan can effectively declare it Japan's own, then that would mean there is little consequence to nations around china helping to box china into the unsatisfactory, encircled, contained geographic position which Chinese nationalists believe to have been unfairly imposed upon china as result of undeserved and surely temporary state of western geopolitical domination in a notional area of natural and just Chinese dominance. If japan can hold these islands with international support and without prohibitive costs, then it would be much harder, longer, perhaps impossible road for china to reach hegemonic status in west pacific.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
STOP BEATING THE WAR DRUMS

Stop trying to inidcate (any member here) that any one "knows" or "thinks they know" what these leaders are thinking, particularly when opining that they somehow want war.

Stop this on both sides of the issue!
 
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LesAdieux

Junior Member
conflict or no conflict, we don't know, but any conflict will be sharp and snappy, there's no chance for protracted trench war. it will involve long range missile attack, battle in the air and battle at the sea, and the verdict will be in within a few hours.

by the way, there are a few rendezvous between PLAAF and JSDF in the ADIZ, according to the Chinese pilots, the jp planes are un-armed, if that's the case, then we are not going to see any conflict in the near future.
 
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