East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

GreatWall said:

Equipment doesn't matter, it's the heart of the fighters that matter.

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Sorry Great Wall...but on the High Seas, equipment does matter, a lot.

Ten wholly committed men, willing to die for their cause, on a large outrigger canoe with sails and on the high seas, all armed with AKs and RPGs are not going to defeat a Type 054A FFG with a well trained crew, even if most of the personnel on that Type 054A have less life and death commitment than the ten on the outrigger.

They would not defeat a Burke DDG. They would not defeat a Type 056. They would not defeat a US LCS. They would not defeat a South Korean KDX II DDG. Etc. You get the point.

Now, if they faced off against other outriggers, or small sail boats or fishing boats...that might be another matter.

Or, equally outfitted vessels where one was marginally less armed and capable, but with the weaponry and sensors that at least could pose a threat, may have a fight where the heart of the fighters makes a big difference too.

But in this case, old Hamilton class cutters with 76mm and 40mm guns will be hopelessly outmatched against a modern FFG with modern ASMs, regardless of their heart.

GreatWall said:

That is just being beyond ignorant. Equipment doesn't matter, it's the heart of the fighters that matter. The Chinese military know this better than anyone as they were once the nation without anything to start a conflict with and persevered.

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I think, you just need to look at history..

Eight flag banner-men against the British during the opium wars
Zulu during the Anglo-Zulu war
Japanese Banzai bayonett charges vs american GI armed with tompsons and garands
Polish lancers vs German Panzers
Custer vs. Crazy Horse
Incas Vs Spain
Chinese Junks vs. British/french Man-o-wars
The Rajputs Vs the British
The French Foreign Legion Vs the Arabs
The isralies Vs the Arabs

The list goes on, technology had always been a major arbiter in war.

I never insinuated the Phillipines would beat China in a war, because they wouldn't. But the Phillipines would take thousands upon thousands of Chinese men with them.

Besides, China wouldn't be stupid enough to engage the Philippines. The US(along with Japan) would go to their aid and absolutely whip the Chinese on the water. No one can deny that outcome. Japan alone would crush China on the high seas with their superior training and equipment. China is a decade or so away from being able to compete with Japan equipment wise on the water, but they are getting there.

GreatWall said:

I never insinuated the Phillipines would beat China in a war, because they wouldn't. But the Phillipines would take thousands upon thousands of Chinese men with them.

Besides, China wouldn't be stupid enough to engage the Philippines. The US(along with Japan) would go to their aid and absolutely whip the Chinese on the water. No one can deny that outcome. Japan alone would crush China on the high seas with their superior training and equipment. China is a decade or so away from being able to compete with Japan equipment wise on the water, but they are getting there.

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Why would the Philippines take thousands upon thousands of Chinese with them? Do you envision China invading the Philippine main islands? Because I find the notion so remote as it serves no purpose for China. What is contested are tiny pieces of land in a big blue sea. The Philippines don't even have many defensive positions in those places.

Japan has great training and equipment but it's at a tipping point on whether they really can crush China if the engagement is mano-a-mano. Why do you think they are so active in trying to promote greater alliances with anyone they can get on their bandwagon? If anything, this whole alliance building activity by Japan and the Philippines contributes to increasing the chance of another WW1 scenario where nations go to war just because they are obligated to.

For the Chinese, they need to keep training harder and faster. As more equipment come online, the playing field will tilt in their favor if they can keep focused.

GreatWall said:

I never insinuated the Phillipines would beat China in a war, because they wouldn't. But the Phillipines would take thousands upon thousands of Chinese men with them.

Besides, China wouldn't be stupid enough to engage the Philippines. The US(along with Japan) would go to their aid and absolutely whip the Chinese on the water. No one can deny that outcome. Japan alone would crush China on the high seas with their superior training and equipment. China is a decade or so away from being able to compete with Japan equipment wise on the water, but they are getting there.

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Pure nonsense.

Short of a full scale PLA invasion of the Philippines home islands, there is simply no conceivable way the Philippines could cause anywhere like that kind of casualties on the PLA, unless you are insinuating the Philippines are going to round up Chinese nationals in their territory at the outbreak of hostilities and line them up against a wall.

Again, short of a full scale Chinese invasion of the Philippines home islands, there is little to no prospect of the US never mind Japan getting directly involved. Even if China was a complete military pushover, which it isn't by any stretch of the imagination, the economic costs of directly engaging China in combat would be prohibitively high to give even the most hawkish US president serious pause.

Factor in the extremely high chance of significant US military casualties if it engages in open hostilities with China, you'd have to be off your meds to think the US will risk such a confrontation lightly. If the US wasn't prepared to step in when Russia was steamrolling its pet Georgia, what on earth makes you think it would attack China to enforce the Philippines' claim to a few specks of rock on the other side of the world?

As for the Japanese 'crushing' China, well if anyone needed further evidence that you are trolling, then that should be it.

I could present a reasoned explanation as to why that claim is also ridiculous rubbish, but I suspect you are not remotely interested in facts or reason, and that I have already wasted far too much time on you.

I'm no mod, but I dare say if you keep this up, your stay here will be a short one.

GreatWall said:

I never insinuated the Phillipines would beat China in a war, because they wouldn't. But the Phillipines would take thousands upon thousands of Chinese men with them.

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Yeah, actually what you said was that equipment wouldn't matter in any China Phillippines conflict, and that heart would prevail. The resounding response was a preeeettty firm "nope".

And I think it would be nigh impossible for any PLAN-PN conflict to have either side suffer thousands of casualties. For one, the Philippines doesn't have that many ships that can hold that number of crew, and the PLAN doesn't need that many ships to meet any PN contingency in the first place... so unless we are talking about some kind of Filipino terrorist attack on chinese cities, I don't really see how that idea is remotely possible.

Besides, China wouldn't be stupid enough to engage the Philippines. The US(along with Japan) would go to their aid and absolutely whip the Chinese on the water. No one can deny that outcome. Japan alone would crush China on the high seas with their superior training and equipment. China is a decade or so away from being able to compete with Japan equipment wise on the water, but they are getting there.

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Now you're moving the goalposts a little, considering your original statement limited any situation with only China and the Philippines, and didn't include the US or Japan. Unless you believe "heart" means "being able to rely on the resources of allies).

In either case, it is unrealistic for any sino-philippines conflict to spark into a full blown war even with US or Japanese involvement. More likely it would be a brief sharp incident between the PLAN and PN, and everyone calms down a little and things settle to a tense cold war situation in the SCS. But even that is unlikely, because out of China and the Philippines, China knows it doesn't need to spark any kind of incident, and the Philippines knows their current relationship with Japan and the US is nowhere near the level where they have an open cheque to pursue more aggressive maneuvering with China in the SCS.

As for the PLAN/JMSDF balance, the PLAN actually has a similar if not slightly higher total displacement of blue water vessels with modern capabilities than the JMSDF, and that of course doesn't include older frigates, destroyers, and modern coastal patrol ships and FACs. There's also the factor of naval strike capability to consider, which the PLA overall is arguably superior in compared to the JSDF considering they have 100 Su-30s and well over two hundred JH-7/As, while the JASDF is stretched a little thinner with only their 100 or so F-2s.
If we want to bring in the US then that changes the equation entirely, but for that matter we might as well start considering IRBMs, AShBMs, and ASAT weapons.
The key point is probably that any situation between China and the Philippines is unlikely to quickly spiral into a full fledged war in the forseeable future.

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And like plawolf said, your rhetoric is somewhat trollish. Certainly on this forum, such direct and un nuanced comparisons aren't allowed so openly.

GreatWall said:

I never insinuated the Phillipines would beat China in a war, because they wouldn't. But the Phillipines would take thousands upon thousands of Chinese men with them.

Besides, China wouldn't be stupid enough to engage the Philippines. The US(along with Japan) would go to their aid and absolutely whip the Chinese on the water. No one can deny that outcome. Japan alone would crush China on the high seas with their superior training and equipment. China is a decade or so away from being able to compete with Japan equipment wise on the water, but they are getting there.

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US & Japan coming to their aid ? Why let simple facts get in the way of day-dreaming ?
Scarborough Shoal and maybe more has come under effective control of PLA or do you mean the 'aid' will only come when China invades Philipines mainland ?

To be fair, USN did try to intervene. Any serious observers would have noticed the public show of force of USN assets from carriers to nuke subs to the area during the height of the Scarborough Shoal crisis along with many PLA 'exercises' there.
I always say, what is made public, there are much more beneath the surface not seen.
What we have there then was a true test of strength between the two bordering on war. And the outcome today is for all to see, that is for those whose head is not stuck in the sand.

This thread is about the Chinese ADIZ, not about who has the most heart, and surely not about war between China and the Philippines, or Japan, or the US.

Do not go there.

Great Wall, you are new. READ THE FORUM RULES.

Sinodefence forum rules of behavior

Do not theorize or push War between nations, or postulate, chest thump, or go into nationalistic fervor over it. It leads only to high emotion, argument, flame bait and then suspensions and bannings.

Do not respond to this moderation, simply abide it.

Not sure if this is in relation to the ADIZ per sey, but it did happen over the East China Sea:

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Fox News said:

A Chinese jet fighter flew dangerously close to a U.S. Navy P-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft near Japan this week in an encounter that highlights China’s continued aggressiveness in the region.

The P-8, a new, militarized Boeing-737 anti-submarine warfare aircraft, was conducting routine surveillance of the Chinese coast over the East China Sea on Monday when the incident occurred, said U.S. defense officials familiar with reports of the encounter.

Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Jeffrey Pool had no immediate comment but said he would provide “an explanation of the event” on Friday.

The defense officials said the Chinese Su-27 interceptor jet flew within 50 feet of the P-8 and then carried out a barrel roll over the top of the aircraft—a move described by officials as dangerous and meant to threaten the surveillance aircraft.

It was the second threatening encounter of a U.S. surveillance aircraft this year. In April, a Russian Su-27 flew within 100 feet of a U.S. Air Force RC-135 aircraft during another dangerous intercept over waters north of Japan.

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I thought the PLAN was using J-11Bs or SU-30s for these intercepts.

I always thought it was J-8II or Su-27. Aren't SU-30 more of an attack aircraft like bombing and anti-ship?