As if the budget was the problem.....This is utterly moronic
Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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I think South Korea and Japan will make some statements to get nuclear protection or even their own nukes but China will apply pressure and nothing will happen in the end. Nuclear armed Korea/Japan is an incredibly huge provocation which I think even their own populations won't support. Japan has a huge anti nuke lobby.
Mind sharing why? I'm not very well versed on german defence issues. Only thing I know is they are building large destroyers with good sensors but pathetic armaments
Their problem is about how to use the budget effectively and maintain their shit so when the enemies come there would be usable fighter jets and helos
@siegecrossbow Sir from my understanding BRI is about developing the Eurasia landmass and the important pieces is Russia, China had been courting Russia for a long time because its her sphere of Influence, Europe is a bonus. You can see the difference in strategy China and the West employed, the West use coercion, exploitation and threat while China use business opportunity and development. So who will they choose and why so many country sign up on BRI, Sir I place these question to those so called expert to answer.
There are definetely a lot consequences so will just write some short thoughts of mine:
Europe will rearm, Europe will then be able to match Russia's power and thus reduce Russia's power and threat to the European theater. Europe's economy is in shambles. Significant increase of military spending will eat up domestic economic investment. Increased energy costs (Putin stop the gas please) and raw material costs will be big blow to Europe. Inflation will now be even worse. Probably entering stagflation territory
US is (short term) laughing all the way to the bank. Capital flight to the US will keep debt rates down even If (probably won't do it now the way things are) the FED raises rates. Will allow US to fully focus on China when Europe becomes militarily strong (Europe might need
10+ years to develop that much). Also EU becomes much closer to the US
Disadvantage is that this is a big blow to its prestige for being a Hegemon and that the SWIFT/bank assets sanctions to Russia are a tremendously huge blow to the the US Financial Pillar holding its Hegemony in the world. This has just accelerated China's progress towards building its own financial system
China finally gets Russia as a junior partner. Central Asia BRI/integration/economic/strategic projects now move forward. Guaranteed access to Russian ultra cheap raw materials, energy, human capital (engineers/scientists). Most probably we will see China gaining strategic concessions from Russia on the Arctic.
Huge economic gain from weakened Europe's industry.
Russia is a huge loser. Its currency lost like 1/3 of its value overnight. The West just stole from it $250+ billion of Russia's central bank assets. Its people will get a lot poorer which might (will..) lead to instability. Became China's junior partner without even asking anything in return from China (Putin masterstroke..). Central Asia influence significantly weakened. Weapon exports will decline a lot more (seen their performance in Ukraine?). Will lose a lot of prestige for its incompetent military tactics used and miscalculations in the battlefield. Invasion of Ukraine has now probably scared other countries to join NATO for protection ASAP. Kinda counter-productive to Russia' interests of driving NATO out of its neighborhood
Europe will rearm, Europe will then be able to match Russia's power and thus reduce Russia's power and threat to the European theater. Europe's economy is in shambles. Significant increase of military spending will eat up domestic economic investment. Increased energy costs (Putin stop the gas please) and raw material costs will be big blow to Europe. Inflation will now be even worse. Probably entering stagflation territory
US is (short term) laughing all the way to the bank. Capital flight to the US will keep debt rates down even If (probably won't do it now the way things are) the FED raises rates. Will allow US to fully focus on China when Europe becomes militarily strong (Europe might need
10+ years to develop that much). Also EU becomes much closer to the US
Disadvantage is that this is a big blow to its prestige for being a Hegemon and that the SWIFT/bank assets sanctions to Russia are a tremendously huge blow to the the US Financial Pillar holding its Hegemony in the world. This has just accelerated China's progress towards building its own financial system
China finally gets Russia as a junior partner. Central Asia BRI/integration/economic/strategic projects now move forward. Guaranteed access to Russian ultra cheap raw materials, energy, human capital (engineers/scientists). Most probably we will see China gaining strategic concessions from Russia on the Arctic.
Huge economic gain from weakened Europe's industry.
Russia is a huge loser. Its currency lost like 1/3 of its value overnight. The West just stole from it $250+ billion of Russia's central bank assets. Its people will get a lot poorer which might (will..) lead to instability. Became China's junior partner without even asking anything in return from China (Putin masterstroke..). Central Asia influence significantly weakened. Weapon exports will decline a lot more (seen their performance in Ukraine?). Will lose a lot of prestige for its incompetent military tactics used and miscalculations in the battlefield. Invasion of Ukraine has now probably scared other countries to join NATO for protection ASAP. Kinda counter-productive to Russia' interests of driving NATO out of its neighborhood
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I wonder how much Ukraine will get of Russia's overseas money to rebuild itself if it manages to defeat Putin.
It depends on how the war goes. If it goes Russia's way I assume they will take Eastern Ukraine (and maybe all coastal areas?) and Western Ukraine will become a neutral and a demilitarized country.
Anything less than this, which allows the Ukraine state (even if reduced in territory) to make independent policies and have a proper military, get ready for the West to use billions and billions to make Ukraine a fortress ala Israel. And as you said, most probably that money would come from the money that the West stole from Russia lol
So for Russia, anything else than the 1st scenario is a disaster.
For China, with ample supplies affordable agricultural products and resources from Russia and Ukraine, it can now focus on the US hegemony, after reunification of the country.
Easy, just make sure the global south doesn’t see them, or if they do, distract them so they forget in a week.