Can we talk about a post-Putin Russia? Obviously Putin will not quit volunterily anytime soon, but it will eventually happen, and Ukraine crisis closes some doors.
Possible scenarios:
1. Liberal democratic Russia joins EU, but not NATO. NATO loses relevance. Russia pushes for EU army. Russia becomes the pro-China voice in EU. Ukraine crisis will change Russian economy to be structurally dependent on China, which ensures it will be pro-China even if it democratizes after Putin.
2. Liberal democratic Russia joins NATO. Unlikely. The memories of Ukraine war will prevent Russia from turning itself into a NATO frontline against China. However, there could be a massive Western disinformation campaign to convince Russians that Putin launched the war on behalf of China, so Russia should join the West to punish China. Fox News will obviously go overdrive on this, but I think NYT will also push it.
3. Authoritarian Russia becomes pro-Western or neutral. Almost impossible. I think the chance of a normal relationship between the West and an authoritarian post-Putin Russia is almost zero.
4. Status quo. Authoritarian and Pro-China.