Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
BRI has failed now. From my extensive shopping experience, much of EUR-CHN trade actually went through warehouses in Russia. You can imagine how that might be a problem at this point.
Majority of European BRI should be deleted (except Hungary, Serbia, a bit in Poland etc).

Direct all that money to Central Asia asap. Russia wont be against that as it also needs money now. So, better to build up the backyard in order to get developed even more and this will benefit China and Russia quickly
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Can we talk about a post-Putin Russia? Obviously Putin will not quit volunterily anytime soon, but it will eventually happen, and Ukraine crisis closes some doors.

Possible scenarios:
1. Liberal democratic Russia joins EU, but not NATO. NATO loses relevance. Russia pushes for EU army. Russia becomes the pro-China voice in EU. Ukraine crisis will change Russian economy to be structurally dependent on China, which ensures it will be pro-China even if it democratizes after Putin.

2. Liberal democratic Russia joins NATO. Unlikely. The memories of Ukraine war will prevent Russia from turning itself into a NATO frontline against China. However, there could be a massive Western disinformation campaign to convince Russians that Putin launched the war on behalf of China, so Russia should join the West to punish China. Fox News will obviously go overdrive on this, but I think NYT will also push it.

3. Authoritarian Russia becomes pro-Western or neutral. Almost impossible. I think the chance of a normal relationship between the West and an authoritarian post-Putin Russia is almost zero.

4. Status quo. Authoritarian and Pro-China.
This only works if Russians vote liberal but... #2 party is Communist Party of Russia and #3 are the nationalist socialists of A Just Russia. So post Putin is Russia as socialist again one way or another.

#4 aren't the liberals either lol, they're the monarchists.

When monarchy has more public support than liberalism... No chance for EU.
 

supercat

Major
Russia is a huge loser. Its currency lost like 1/3 of its value overnight. The West just stole from it $250+ billion of Russia's central bank assets. Its people will get a lot poorer which might (will..) lead to instability. Became China's junior partner without even asking anything in return from China (Putin masterstroke..). Central Asia influence significantly weakened. Weapon exports will decline a lot more (seen their performance in Ukraine?). Will lose a lot of prestige for its incompetent military tactics used and miscalculations in the battlefield. Invasion of Ukraine has now probably scared other countries to join NATO for protection ASAP. Kinda counter-productive to Russia' interests of driving NATO out of its neighborhood

IMO there are 3 scenario's possible:

1. Russia loses face badly and there is going to be lots of internal turmoil because of the political and economic consequences which will turn Russia inwards and lose its influence in its neighborhood and beyond. Think Central-Asia, Caucasus, Syria and Libya. NATO and the West will do everything to role back Putin's power. Russia will be demoted to become China's bitch, if China is interested.

2. Russians depose of Putin and his innercirle and try to rehabilitate things with Ukraine and the west. Either way it'll lose its power in the world as in scenario #1.

3. Putin lashes out and WOIII starts.
I think it's a little bit too early to tell. The NATO bombed Serbia for more than 70 days before forcing it to withdraw from Kosovo. No matter how much hardship the Russians have to face this time, it won't be as bad as the disintegration of the USSR and the "Shock Therapy", when millions of Russian men died prematurely, which dragged down Russia's male life expectancy by about 10 years.
 

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
BRI has failed now. From my extensive shopping experience, much of EUR-CHN trade actually went through warehouses in Russia. You can imagine how that might be a problem at this point.
Yea, damn. BRI in Europe was a international relations coup for China. Oh well, you win some you lose some.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
Majority of European BRI should be deleted (except Hungary, Serbia, a bit in Poland etc).

Direct all that money to Central Asia asap. Russia wont be against that as it also needs money now. So, better to build up the backyard in order to get developed even more and this will benefit China and Russia quickly
Investment in Greece can keep running, too. But, yeah, it's a setback for BRI in east Europe. The railway links from China to Europe are now also severed.

I am wondering how much concessions Putin will need to make to Xi after the dust settles down.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Investment in Greece can keep running, too. But, yeah, it's a setback for BRI in east Europe. The railway links from China to Europe are now also severed.

I am wondering how much concessions Putin will need to make to Xi after the dust settles down.
Russia has dragged China through a mess of its own doing. I hope Xi sends a large payment demand to Putin for causing all that mess to China. He directly affected China's long term strategies.
That's a blow for its diplomacy and big headache on how to adjust now
 
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9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Yea, damn. BRI in Europe was a international relations coup for China. Oh well, you win some you lose some.
Now in retrospect it all makes sense why:

Back in 2018 when AT&T and Verizon signed deals with Huawei to bring their smartphones to US market the US gov moved in to stop it

Or when UK initially accepted Huawei 5G contract, Trump called Boris and threatened him at basically knifepoint to renege and cancel

This decoupling had been in the works for years.... the USG already planned it out but for Opsec couldnt share the roadmap or timeline...
 

Vatt’ghern

Junior Member
Registered Member
BRI has failed now. From my extensive shopping experience, much of EUR-CHN trade actually went through warehouses in Russia. You can imagine how that might be a problem at this point.
I disagree, the crux of BRI was to recycle USD from Chinese trade into other hard assets and not back into USD treasuries to fund washingtons war machine, with the war, chinas just gained a captive market of the Eurasian union without western competitors.

If Washington succeeded in killing BRI you would have seen more control over inflation but that’s not what we’re seeing now with stagflation and the US trying to instigate wars to force ppl to put money into USD
 
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