Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

Fedupwithlies

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
I will say it does seem like China's been able to avoid any missteps and come out of every global instability situation ahead lately. But every instability is also an opportunity for the US to claw itself back a little. Every time something happens in the world the trajectory of China and the US could change a bit, and that's not necessarily a good thing.
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
SanWenYu said:
Trade will still be going between China and Europe, and between China and the US, too. Until they can find new suppliers to replace China, they will have to buy from China. To balance trade, they will have to sell to China as well.

Not to mention that the Europeans are going to spend big on rearming, leaving even less chance for themselves to make stuff like cell phones, toys and port cranes.
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@SanWenYu and less innovative too, the EU IF they did what they say, had sign their own death warrant, instead of investing in future tech to compete with the US and China. The legacy tech will give them 3 years at maximum then their competitiveness will withered. As the baton is pass to the US, surrendering and solidifying its position as a US vassal.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
9dashline said:
Now in retrospect it all makes sense why:

Back in 2018 when AT&T and Verizon signed deals with Huawei to bring their smartphones to US market the US gov moved in to stop it

Or when UK initially accepted Huawei 5G contract, Trump called Boris and threatened him at basically knifepoint to renege and cancel

This decoupling had been in the works for years.... the USG already planned it out but for Opsec couldnt share the roadmap or timeline...
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So isn’t the US doing to UK what they accuse Russia of doing to Ukraine?
 
T

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Fedupwithlies said:
Regarding the Europeans trying to court China as a result... That's the opposite of what I'm thinking but i see your reasoning behind it. I think that might be more likely if the next US president turns out like Trump, where even the Europeans see China as the only stable power in the world.

But we just saw a demonstration that they're pretty deep in the US camp and the US has a vested interest in not letting them go to China.
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That depends now who they see their bigger enemy.
Also the economy of the EU is on the verge of stagflation and sanctions hurt both ways, by example when the Trump Adm. sanctioned Huawei it was a big lost for Qualcomm, it wasn't until Huawei sold their smartphone division to Honor that Qualcomm was able to recover from that lost and this is going to hurt the European economy really bad, if they really want to hurt Russia bad they will have to at least try to court China, they cannot afford to do the U.S bidding while dealing with the blow-back effects of the sanctions.

Inflation:
1646102268730.png
Growth:

1646102341195.png
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
That depends now who they see their bigger enemy.
Also the economy of the EU is on the verge of stagflation and sanctions hurt both ways, by example when the Trump Adm. sanctioned Huawei it was a big lost for Qualcomm, it wasn't until Huawei sold their smartphone division to Honor that Qualcomm was able to recover from that lost and this is going to hurt the European economy really bad, if they really want to hurt Russia bad they will have to at least try to court China, they cannot afford to do the U.S bidding while dealing with the blow-back effects of the sanctions.

Inflation:
View attachment 84040
Growth:

View attachment 84041
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Give it a few months for the increased prices to filter through the market and then we will be seeing the EU in stagflation

That's a reminder to other countries to take care of CIA/NGOs/Media/Traitors in their countries. Ukraine has already been destoryed and the EU has committed economic suicide. If I am in Asia Pacific I will be very afraid now. The US is determined to destroy countries that don't toe the line 100% (and even then sometimes it still does so)
 
B

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Aegis21 said:
Would a Socialist Revolution be possible once more?
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Maybe Socialism with Russian characteristics, not like the previous one where religion is getting banned. Russia is already working with autonomous regions from what i can gather. Aka china's version of socialism i think they call it state capitalism, strategic products will be state owned the consumer market will be run by private companies.
 
horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Okay, bullshit time!

This Russian invasion of Ukraine is a massive geopolitical win for China! Bigger than 9/11.

Think about it, what makes this big win possible?

It is all about the BRI.

Two question that must be clarified. ONE, what is BRI, it is globalization. TWO, what does the sanctions on Russia represent, that is punishment.

So globalization (BRI), and punishing Russia (sanctions) are two separate issues.

Are those two separate issues going to be linked? How do we know that Europe and the Anglos are on the same on that?

Other than Europe and the Anglos, no one else on this earth is going to care about this war in Europe. Therefore, the BRI continues with or without Europe.


Here at this point in the proceedings, there is a fork in the road. It can either go this way or that way.

One way it can go, for example, if Germany shuns the BRI because they associate China with Russia, then what about all the German businesses inside China? Are those to be sacrificed as well? Probably not. After the emotion dies down, people get back to business. This also means China has enormous leverage here.

The other way it can go, which is probably far better, is that Europe and the Anglos shun the BRI. That would be a godsend to China.

If they shun the BRI, that is deglobalizing, that is isolating yourself!

But someone would protest, Europe and the Anglos have a lot to offer the world. Maybe, but China will give you the better deal, that is why China is the largest trading nation on earth.

How did China become so big a trading nation?! The deals!

So you can see where this is going. If German coattails along the BRI they can make something. If they shun the BRI, and compete with China worldwide, how do you think that will work out? Will Germany out-compete China in the rest of the world?

Not a chance. They know it too.

Either way, does not matter what happens now.

The Europeans work with China, and the Americans are deeply unhappy.

The Europeans shun China, and China will beat them and the Americans at world trade with the BRI, making the foreigners both unhappy.

Basically, if the Europeans shun the BRI, then promote their own deals, that is direct competition with China across the world, where there is a lot of colonial baggage still, along with a more expensive deal. If no one wants to make those deals with the Europeans, then that is a form of isolation.

China has a chance now to isolate commercially, the Americans and the Europeans, in the world. Isolate them commercially, and naturally Chinese influence will grow.

Russia has been isolated, Chinese influence grows with Russia, because Russia needs a friend. That in turn puts pressure on Japan, and on India.

There are a lot of effects from this fracture in Europe. That we will not see become apparent yet, but it is coming.

Blah blah blah.

:D
 
In4ser

In4ser

Junior Member
BRI was created with contingencies for something like this crisis. China has an alternative land route from Xinjiang to Iran to Turkey to the EU and a sea route through the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal then Greece. Foreign policy and trade will need to be adjusted accordingly with countries along these routes but it's not dead. Growing inflation from higher energy and food costs mean they will increasingly turn towards cheaper alternatives which often is from China.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
horse said:
Okay, bullshit time!

This Russian invasion of Ukraine is a massive geopolitical win for China! Bigger than 9/11.

Think about it, what makes this big win possible?

It is all about the BRI.

Two question that must be clarified. ONE, what is BRI, it is globalization. TWO, what does the sanctions on Russia represent, that is punishment.

So globalization (BRI), and punishing Russia (sanctions) are two separate issues.

Are those two separate issues going to be linked? How do we know that Europe and the Anglos are on the same on that?

Other than Europe and the Anglos, no one else on this earth is going to care about this war in Europe. Therefore, the BRI continues with or without Europe.


Here at this point in the proceedings, there is a fork in the road. It can either go this way or that way.

One way it can go, for example, if Germany shuns the BRI because they associate China with Russia, then what about all the German businesses inside China? Are those to be sacrificed as well? Probably not. After the emotion dies down, people get back to business. This also means China has enormous leverage here.

The other way it can go, which is probably far better, is that Europe and the Anglos shun the BRI. That would be a godsend to China.

If they shun the BRI, that is deglobalizing, that is isolating yourself!

But someone would protest, Europe and the Anglos have a lot to offer the world. Maybe, but China will give you the better deal, that is why China is the largest trading nation on earth.

How did China become so big a trading nation?! The deals!

So you can see where this is going. If German coattails along the BRI they can make something. If they shun the BRI, and compete with China worldwide, how do you think that will work out? Will Germany out-compete China in the rest of the world?

Not a chance. They know it too.

Either way, does not matter what happens now.

The Europeans work with China, and the Americans are deeply unhappy.

The Europeans shun China, and China will beat them and the Americans at world trade with the BRI, making the foreigners both unhappy.

Basically, if the Europeans shun the BRI, then promote their own deals, that is direct competition with China across the world, where there is a lot of colonial baggage still, along with a more expensive deal. If no one wants to make those deals with the Europeans, then that is a form of isolation.

China has a chance now to isolate commercially, the Americans and the Europeans, in the world. Isolate them commercially, and naturally Chinese influence will grow.

Russia has been isolated, Chinese influence grows with Russia, because Russia needs a friend. That in turn puts pressure on Japan, and on India.

There are a lot of effects from this fracture in Europe. That we will not see become apparent yet, but it is coming.

Blah blah blah.

:D
Click to expand...

I don't think this is the case in the long term.

1) Europe will rearm for sure and be fully aligned with the U.S.
2) Belt and Road is probably dead in Europe, hopefully they can salvage some of it but I don't see how.
3) Performance of Russia's conventional military hasn't been the best, it would degrade European and U.S. perception of their capabilities. Which would in turn lead to
4) U.S. will be able to focus more on the Indo-Pacific.

Comparison with 9/11 is not appropriate since Al-Queda and Taliba were NOT a part of the Chinese camp, but the Russians are.
 
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