Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
I don't think this is the case in the long term.

1) Europe will rearm for sure and be fully aligned with the U.S.
2) Belt and Road is probably dead in Europe, hopefully they can salvage some of it but I don't see how.
3) Performance of Russia's conventional military hasn't been the best, it would degrade European and U.S. perception of their capabilities. Which would in turn lead to
4) U.S. will be able to focus more on the Indo-Pacific.

Comparison with 9/11 is not appropriate since Al-Queda and Taliba were NOT a part of the Chinese camp, but the Russians are.
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1- The problem is who they see is their biggest threat now? Does antagonizing China help them to contain Russia? And money is not unlimited, the Europeans cannot keep their social warfare and at the same time spending to contain China and Russia at the same time, they will have to choose.
2- That is to been seem, the European economy is not in the best shape, so rejecting a market of the size of China to offset the lost of the Russian market could be a not very good idea.
3-Regardless of the Ukrainian twitter victories, the Russians are hammering that country to the point that their president is begging the Chinese to make it stop and NATO can do nothing without starting nuclear exchange, If there is a lesson for the Chinese is that their nuclear arsenal is maybe too small.
4-Yes, there is not illusion the for U.S. they see China as their long term threat and they will keep their focus in the pacific with or without Europe but an isolated Russia could derail that. Iran having a nuke sounds like very big problem for the U.S. far bigger than China in the short term.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Fedupwithlies said:
I think its going to be very interesting watching where trade goes after this ends. Does China keep trading a lot with the EU?
They're going to fully commit to the US now.
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EU industry is too hollowed out to stop trade with China. Same deal with the US.

Fedupwithlies said:
Over and over we come to just how important the global south is for the future. Expect to see a lot more interventions by the US, I think. More countries need to prepare to be targeted by the US, whether with soft power (join us, fellow human rights lover!) or hard power (your elections are fake!)
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There is an impending leftist wave moving over South America again. The US will likely try to torpedo it. They will also probably try to mess things up in Southeast Asia. The recent news about Nepal also gave me a bit of a pause to be honest. The US might try to use it to railroad insurgents into Tibet.

tokenanalyst said:
This could hurt the U.S Anti-China strategy really bad, in the eyes of the U.S China is still its biggest threat but for the Europeans they are gonna view Russia as an even bigger threat. The Europeans could try to divide the Russia-China friendship to by trying courting China with less export controls and better economic ties, nightmare fuel for the U.S.
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The current EU leadership is so abysmally stupid I see little chance of that happening.

tokenanalyst said:
Like someone posted before there is a possibility the Russia could make things difficult for the U.S. in the Middle East, i don't think the Russians now care if Iran gets the bomb, in fact it could be convenient for them for Iran to get the bomb.
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Like I said once in the Iran thread, contrary to what people seem to think, Iran's problem isn't the bomb. It is that they don't have a delivery vehicle which can hit the US. This means they will be vulnerable. Even if they make a nuke, the US won't stop its hostility as long as they can't get hit, they will cause a strike on Iran or at least push for one.

tokenanalyst said:
Its also can make things difficult for the U.S in the pacific, by selling game changing weapons to China, for that reason i think Japan, SK, Singapore and most of Asia will reestablish normal economic relations with Russia in the short term. especially Japan who is really fearful of seeing China getting new weapons.
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Given the confrontation with the US I expect to see intercontinental hypersonic bombers to happen in the not too distant future.
Zircon is probably one of the hallmarks that the base technology is getting there.

tokenanalyst said:
It could make China alternative financial system more appealing, a lot of countries still have ties with Russia, by example Bolsonaro didn't even condemn the invasion "is the fight between two brothers" so is possible that they could use China as link to that country bypassing the West financial system. That will give a boost to China financial system.
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Brazil is getting elections soon. He can't seem to be sticking too close to US position. I wouldn't bet on this continuing if he gets re-elected. Brazil had said it would pull its Mi-35 helicopters from service even before this conflict started. They claim they can't maintain them. Can you believe that? Even Iraq and African countries don't seem to have a problem, and Brazil, with one of the best aeronautics industries can't do it? He's going to get US helicopters. Their agribusiness depends on Chinese imports, that is why he still has to keep good relations with China.

SanWenYu said:
Trade will still be going between China and Europe, and between China and the US, too. Until they can find new suppliers to replace China, they will have to buy from China. To balance trade, they will have to sell to China as well.
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The US will likely try to push for supply chains to continue to move into Southeast Asia and perhaps the Indian subcontinent.
The idea will be that those will be propped up and serve as a counter to China and deflate China like they used China to deflate Japan.
That has been their globalist plan all along.

SanWenYu said:
Not to mention that the Europeans are going to spend big on rearming, leaving even less chance for themselves to make stuff like cell phones, toys and port cranes.
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If Europe's industry cannot move to the next tech level, like electric cars, they are going to fade into irrelevance.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
BRI has failed now. From my extensive shopping experience, much of EUR-CHN trade actually went through warehouses in Russia. You can imagine how that might be a problem at this point.
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Approximately 16% of the China-Europe trade was via railway. The rest was by sea anyway.

It's possible that China won't see much difference in export railway traffic as Russia turns to China (instead of Europe) for its imports
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Vatt’ghern said:
I disagree, the crux of BRI was to recycle USD from Chinese trade into other hard assets and not back into USD treasuries to fund washingtons war machine, with the war, chinas just gained a captive market of the Eurasian union without western competitors.

If Washington succeeded in killing BRI you would have seen more control over inflation but that’s not what we’re seeing now with stagflation and the US trying to instigate wars to force ppl to put money into USD
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Partly. But my read is that much of the BRI spending ended up back with Chinese companies anyway, who would convert the USD back to RMB.

Remember that BRI is just the umbrella name for China's increasing trade and investment in the world. And the vast majority of countries in the world just wants to be neutral and not be drawn into picking sides.
 
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Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
1) Europe will rearm for sure and be fully aligned with the U.S.
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We have to remember that everything costs time. Europe will rearm and replace Russian energy imports. This will take about five years or so. Where will China be 5 years from now relative to the EU and US?

China is already a larger economy than the EU, even though they haven't quite realised it yet. European growth will be very low due to high inflation, high spending on the military, energy and welfare. The European workforce is also declining rapidly and every man who is conscripted is not founding a start up (although they'll probably gain a few million Ukrainians). High spending and stagflation will also cause the accumulated debt from the pandemic to become very hard to pay off except by printing the money. Expect the euro to go down. By 2027 China will be more than 50% larger than the EU.

It may be overly optimistic to hope that the US will be distracted from the Pacific and focus on Europe. But Europe won't have much energy left to support the US for example by sending ships to the South China Sea or supporting the economy of China's enemies. This means that more countries in South East Asia and the Middle East will become closer to China because the US refuses to open its markets and Europe has no time for them.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
The US will likely try to push for supply chains to continue to move into Southeast Asia and perhaps the Indian subcontinent.
The idea will be that those will be propped up and serve as a counter to China and deflate China like they used China to deflate Japan.
That has been their globalist plan all along.


If Europe's industry cannot move to the next tech level, like electric cars, they are going to fade into irrelevance.
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But the supply chains aren't leaving China.

From 2019-2021, I get the following figures:

China: 32% increase in combined [imports + exports]
USA: 10% increase in combined [imports + exports]

It indicates that China is further globalising and at a much faster rate than the USA.
So it is China that is successfully decoupling its economy from the US.

At this rate, I reckon that next year, we will see China also becoming the world's largest importer ahead of the US.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
horse said:
Okay, bullshit time!

This Russian invasion of Ukraine is a massive geopolitical win for China! Bigger than 9/11.

Think about it, what makes this big win possible?

It is all about the BRI.

Two question that must be clarified. ONE, what is BRI, it is globalization. TWO, what does the sanctions on Russia represent, that is punishment.

So globalization (BRI), and punishing Russia (sanctions) are two separate issues.

Are those two separate issues going to be linked? How do we know that Europe and the Anglos are on the same on that?

Other than Europe and the Anglos, no one else on this earth is going to care about this war in Europe. Therefore, the BRI continues with or without Europe.


Here at this point in the proceedings, there is a fork in the road. It can either go this way or that way.

One way it can go, for example, if Germany shuns the BRI because they associate China with Russia, then what about all the German businesses inside China? Are those to be sacrificed as well? Probably not. After the emotion dies down, people get back to business. This also means China has enormous leverage here.

The other way it can go, which is probably far better, is that Europe and the Anglos shun the BRI. That would be a godsend to China.

If they shun the BRI, that is deglobalizing, that is isolating yourself!

But someone would protest, Europe and the Anglos have a lot to offer the world. Maybe, but China will give you the better deal, that is why China is the largest trading nation on earth.

How did China become so big a trading nation?! The deals!

So you can see where this is going. If German coattails along the BRI they can make something. If they shun the BRI, and compete with China worldwide, how do you think that will work out? Will Germany out-compete China in the rest of the world?

Not a chance. They know it too.

Either way, does not matter what happens now.

The Europeans work with China, and the Americans are deeply unhappy.

The Europeans shun China, and China will beat them and the Americans at world trade with the BRI, making the foreigners both unhappy.

Basically, if the Europeans shun the BRI, then promote their own deals, that is direct competition with China across the world, where there is a lot of colonial baggage still, along with a more expensive deal. If no one wants to make those deals with the Europeans, then that is a form of isolation.

China has a chance now to isolate commercially, the Americans and the Europeans, in the world. Isolate them commercially, and naturally Chinese influence will grow.

Russia has been isolated, Chinese influence grows with Russia, because Russia needs a friend. That in turn puts pressure on Japan, and on India.

There are a lot of effects from this fracture in Europe. That we will not see become apparent yet, but it is coming.

Blah blah blah.

:D
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I don't see France shunning BRI either. There were some big French-Chinese BRI deals just before Ukraine.

Overell, there are just too many juicy deals and development projects.
And these should all be a net economic benefit to France, China and the host country.
 
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