Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

siegecrossbow said:

I don't think this is the case in the long term.

1) Europe will rearm for sure and be fully aligned with the U.S.
2) Belt and Road is probably dead in Europe, hopefully they can salvage some of it but I don't see how.
3) Performance of Russia's conventional military hasn't been the best, it would degrade European and U.S. perception of their capabilities. Which would in turn lead to
4) U.S. will be able to focus more on the Indo-Pacific.

Comparison with 9/11 is not appropriate since Al-Queda and Taliba were NOT a part of the Chinese camp, but the Russians are.

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I wanted to address your points in specifics briefly, and talk about the strategic picture, but it looks like everyone already beat me to it, lol.

To summarize briefly.

1. Europe will rearm, but they will use their limited budgets to buy tanks and not a navy. EU tanks will not drive through Russia to threaten China. The west will be on the same page probably regarding Russia. It remains to be seen if they will be unified with respects to China.

Just a hint of what may be the case, Bolsonaro of Brazil maintains a neutrality for this European war. The culture of South America is Spain and Portugal. Those two were neutral during World War Two.


2. BRI is not dead in Europe, BRI already there in Europe. They will not scrap existing projects. Will they do new projects? Time will tell. The key thing to watch here is the trade volume done with rail from China to Germany. If it increases, like it should, the BRI alive and well in Europe.


3. & 4. No matter what happens, everything leads back to China for the Americans. They have been saying that for a generation now. And all they have done is start a trade war and tech war, both of which they started but could not finish. All the CCP can really do, probably they will humour the Americans a little bit.

After the trade war, tech war, Russia Ukraine war, not sure what is left for the Americans to do.


9/11 was a big win for China because it distracted the Americans for a generation, which the Chinese took the time to build up, everything!

Russia invading Ukraine is a big win for China because now the west or whoever is still on the side of Team America, has to contend with the Russia-China partnership in three theaters.

Europe - they must counter the Russia-China in Europe with this war

Indo-Pacific - whatever the strategy is there,

globally - the west must compete with China globally for market share.


The trade war and tech war, has shown that the Americans are incapable of competing on an economic level with China in the Indo-Pacific and globally.

China's trade numbers keep going up, to be the biggest and more biggest trader in the world. Not sure what they mean when they say America will focus on China in the Indo-Pacific. Do they mean they will focus on China winning? I don't know.

Then the American now are in a very not envious position, of reiteration the security aspects for the Indo-Pacific. Security is important, like what we are seeing in Europe today!

Thanks, but no thanks.

Bottom line thinking.

The Russia Ukraine war, and the wild rhetoric and immediate aftermath, does not really change the outlook or the battlefield, it just sharpens the focus, and defines clearly what is at stake.

What is at stake is,

Europe
Indo-Pacific
global economy/markets

Russia and China are on one side. The west, who knows.

Then add in the fact of how they ran away from Afghanistan, a tribal army who did not even wear shoes, and now the media tells us that the west will take on Russia and China, in Europe, in the Ind-Pacific, and vie for economic power globally.

The propaganda is completely nuts.

The Western political class and their compliant media just seems in over their heads.

I believe for the Russian military, they have an opportunity for reform here just like China after the Sino Vietnamese War.

They will likely keep their own ground force, aerospace and some shipbuilding industries (subs and frigates). But here are some guesses for their navy:

1. Russia does not build a successor to the Slava and Kirov classes when they retire in 10-15 years. They'll either go without large surface combatants or import Chinese 052Ds. They already have equivalents to 054As.

2. Within 10 years they will give up Admiral Kuznetzov and move to a sub and frigate/destroyer based navy like Japan or South Korea to cut costs. They may buy some LHDs (likely a custom icebreaking version) from China for ASW as controlling the Arctic for them is now 100% vital.

3. In exchange for Chinese help in the navy Russia will trade China 1 of 3 things - high bypass engine tech, strategic naval bomber tech or a joint early warning system.

siegecrossbow said:

I don't think this is the case in the long term.

1) Europe will rearm for sure and be fully aligned with the U.S.
2) Belt and Road is probably dead in Europe, hopefully they can salvage some of it but I don't see how.
3) Performance of Russia's conventional military hasn't been the best, it would degrade European and U.S. perception of their capabilities. Which would in turn lead to
4) U.S. will be able to focus more on the Indo-Pacific.

Comparison with 9/11 is not appropriate since Al-Queda and Taliba were NOT a part of the Chinese camp, but the Russians are.

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If Europe rearms, and that's a huge if, it's going to be with a Russian threat in mind. Good luck convincing Europeans that they need to build more warships to send to the SCS on FONOPS.

BRI is a lot bigger than just trade with Europe. One of the biggest challenges of BRI had always been the concern that Russia would see it as a threat to their sphere of influence. Now, however, Russia's fate is tied to the BRI, and that is a much bigger coup than trade with EU which as we've seen can be severed at any time for political reasons.

With Russia committed, it's only a matter of time before the central asian -stans fully embrace BRI. This would eventually allow China to build pipelines directly to Iran and Iraq, bypassing the Malacca Strait vulnerability in one fell swoop.

The main issue is still Taiwan. The US has now abandoned three minions in quick succession: HK, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. Here, the US propaganda is going to work against it. Taiwanese are currently convinced Ukraine is winning, so when Kiev falls, they're going to be shocked out of their minds. We may very well see a sea change of public opinion soon.

solarz said:

If Europe rearms, and that's a huge if, it's going to be with a Russian threat in mind. Good luck convincing Europeans that they need to build more warships to send to the SCS on FONOPS.

BRI is a lot bigger than just trade with Europe. One of the biggest challenges of BRI had always been the concern that Russia would see it as a threat to their sphere of influence. Now, however, Russia's fate is tied to the BRI, and that is a much bigger coup than trade with EU which as we've seen can be severed at any time for political reasons.

With Russia committed, it's only a matter of time before the central asian -stans fully embrace BRI. This would eventually allow China to build pipelines directly to Iran and Iraq, bypassing the Malacca Strait vulnerability in one fell swoop.

The main issue is still Taiwan. The US has now abandoned three minions in quick succession: HK, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. Here, the US propaganda is going to work against it. Taiwanese are currently convinced Ukraine is winning, so when Kiev falls, they're going to be shocked out of their minds. We may very well see a sea change of public opinion soon.

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Good points but i have just one objection: The US will demand the EU renounce its China ties in payment for its 'protection' racket.

The US has done this in its colony in Australia, Lithuania et al because the US' core aim is to have a captive market for its uncompetitive products and services so that i can remain the middleman and pointman for all trade with China. Ever since Woodrow Wilson, the US has had an unhealthy obsessioon with China, especially since so many US Elite Families owe their wealth to the Opium trade.

solarz said:

BRI is a lot bigger than just trade with Europe. One of the biggest challenges of BRI had always been the concern that Russia would see it as a threat to their sphere of influence. Now, however, Russia's fate is tied to the BRI, and that is a much bigger coup than trade with EU which as we've seen can be severed at any time for political reasons.

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The Russian "sphere of influence" doesn't actually have that many people or economic heft, if you compare it to the Global South.

solarz said:

With Russia committed, it's only a matter of time before the central asian -stans fully embrace BRI. This would eventually allow China to build pipelines directly to Iran and Iraq, bypassing the Malacca Strait vulnerability in one fell swoop.

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To be honest, I don't see pipelines from China to Iran happening. But more oil pipelines from Russia to China, yes.

solarz said:

Taiwanese are currently convinced Ukraine is winning, so when Kiev falls, they're going to be shocked out of their minds. We may very well see a sea change of public opinion soon.

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Holy bleep, Batman!

Or whatever that guy used to say.

FairAndUnbiased said:

This only works if Russians vote liberal but... #2 party is Communist Party of Russia and #3 are the nationalist socialists of A Just Russia. So post Putin is Russia as socialist again one way or another.

#4 aren't the liberals either lol, they're the monarchists.

When monarchy has more public support than liberalism... No chance for EU.

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Joining EU requires press freedom, i.e. allowing Western influence to control your media. Not sure how long can the Communist Party survive in such an environment.

horse said:

Bottom line thinking.

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This is the way I should have wrote it.

What has not changed is the game or the battlefield. That is all the same.

What has changed is the intensity of the competition or battle, with Russian Ukraine conflict and the European flipping out reaction to it.

This change in the intensity has changed the calculus for everyone.

This change in the calculus, dramatically all favours China.

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Everyone should think about it for themselves, and we can talk about the geopolitical situation, forever! LOL!

For example, India, all of the sudden is in bit of a bind with their Russia relations. They cannot ask too much of them in case it offends China.

Japan is looking at a united front to their north, east, and south, all hostile too, or could be hostile.

EU, forget about it. No one knows what they are going to do. What seems certain, their dreams of being a counterweight to China will be unfulfilled because they have to remain focused on Russia. There is no point in even pretending for the EU anymore that they are a Pacific power.

The United States, who knows what off the wall plan they will think of next. Trade war! Tech war! Goad Russia into a war! Yeah right.

OppositeDay said:

Joining EU requires press freedom, i.e. allowing Western influence to control your media. Not sure how long can the Communist Party survive in such an environment.

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Only yesterday the EU nation of Czechia amongst others threatened ppl who supported the Russian operation with jail time. Press freedom isn't really something the west champions anymore.