Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Even if Putin loses his power due to lack of internal support, it wont create a Russia that is more friendly to West. The effect is going to be exactly the opposite. When Russian teams are banned from sports, Russians are expelled from universities, Russian aircrafts are not allowed to fly in countries, and western chauvinists are talking shit and humiliating your country, I’m telling you one thing: you are basically creating people that will be ultra hostile to West for quite a long time. Even those people who might be the “ashamed to be Russian” troop for now, will slowly develop a very hostile attitude towards West. China says thank you. I’m sure in the future people will write about how the West made a big and existential mistake. The events of recent days will shape this, and West are doing everything they can to be a in bad position.
Even if Putin loses his power due to lack of internal support, it wont create a Russia that is more friendly to West. The effect is going to be exactly the opposite. When Russian teams are banned from sports, Russians are expelled from universities, Russian aircrafts are not allowed to fly in countries, and western chauvinists are talking shit and humiliating your country, I’m telling you one thing: you are basically creating people that will be ultra hostile to West for quite a long time. Even those people who might be the “ashamed to be Russian” troop for now, will slowly develop a very hostile attitude towards West. China says thank you. I’m sure in the future people will write about how the West made a big and existential mistake. The events of recent days will shape this, and West are doing everything they can to be a in bad position.
Right now the Russians are waging a military war against Ukraine. And the US and its allies are waging a economic war against Russia. I think in the long run everyone will score a pyrrhic victory.
The Russians might well capture Kiev and in stall a Russian friendly puppet regime. But it will be one with very limited international recognition and will need constant military and economic support to maintain.
The West might well cripple the Russian economy and the Russians from now on may have to adjust to a lower living standard than before. But it will also mean higher energy and food prices for the West and loss of business for their industry and companies. And losses in the financial sector too.
Yes, everyone is going to achieve the goals they set out, but the price is so high that you have to question if its worth it.
The Russians might well capture Kiev and in stall a Russian friendly puppet regime. But it will be one with very limited international recognition and will need constant military and economic support to maintain.
The West might well cripple the Russian economy and the Russians from now on may have to adjust to a lower living standard than before. But it will also mean higher energy and food prices for the West and loss of business for their industry and companies. And losses in the financial sector too.
Yes, everyone is going to achieve the goals they set out, but the price is so high that you have to question if its worth it.
Xi's upcoming visit to Kazakhstan will be very interesting to watch. Kazakhstan is probably very uneasy right now. It has a large ethnic Russian population and Russian is currently the language of business. Kazakh Chinese or former Kazakh Chinese working there often complain about their lack of economic opportunities because they don't speak Russian. The government is actively promoting Kazakh language at the expense of Russian. Interesting to watch if China will be invited to play a bigger role in Central Asian security.
During the COVID crisis, support for the Russian communist party grew. For a while there were rumours of a power struggle going on in the Kremlin.
It wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine was Putin's final gift to his nation, then for him to retire to his dacha and a Beijing alligned communist party takes over.
Kazakhstan also denied Russia's request to send troops to Ukraine. Honestly, all this Russia mess has handed Central Asia to China.
Central Asia is naturally very alarmed from Russia's justification to attack another sovereign country and the West wasn't even able to stop it.
Central Asia will be racing to find shade under China. I am guessing that red alarms are ringing right now in their national security councils
China is going to get showered with natural gas from Russia and Central Asia. That's what you call bargain bin prices.
Hopefully Putin's final gift is the resurrection of the United Socialist Soviet Republic (pro-China one).
The problem with all these ex Soviet states is that they are all very closely tied to Russia. If Russia has sanctions put on them, they'll suffer. A lot of their military equipment is Russian, many of their people go to Russia to look for work. The EU and America can't afford to pay for all their problems.
Kazakhstan's stance is especially weird given that the president nearly lost power not long ago. Not only were the people revolting, so was parts of the army and police. Russia bailed him out. Who is he going to call the next time it happens?
If Russia could switch the tap and make flowing of gas to EITHER China or EU, this idea would make sense. Problem is: it is going to take years to be able to send the Yamal gas to EITHER China or EU. For the time being there are only pipes going to Europe.
In, maybe, 5 to 10 years connection between pipelines will have been achieved. For the time being, it is wise for Russia to keep selling its gas to EU, specially since its FX reserves have been frozen.
Kazakhstan is the least dependent on Russia. It's a competitor in the energy market. It also does not send workers to Russia.