Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

Laviduce said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499127743425900546

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I think RUS is going to have a political purge in UKR after this. In fact I think this has always been a goal of theirs, to a degree, but I think they're gonna go Soviet on them due to their frustration at setbacks, loss of patience with talks for stalling and UKR behavior.

1. Denazification as a stated war goal. How do you deprogram hardcore racists? You can't, not gently anyhow. You can't educate them to hate less.

2. They said they were tracking government communication and know who the fascists are.

3. UKR hasn't exactly been helping it's own case by pulling Wehrmacht Battle of Berlin type moves and possible war crimes.

Abominable said:

During the COVID crisis, support for the Russian communist party grew. For a while there were rumours of a power struggle going on in the Kremlin.

It wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine was Putin's final gift to his nation, then for him to retire to his dacha and a Beijing alligned communist party takes over.

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Ukraine means Putin will never give up power. The moment he leaves office they will demand his presence in the Hague.

Some additional thoughts on Ru lessons:

-national civilian aircraft insurers are necessary;
-aircraft leased from foreign sources (as opposed to properly owned by the airline) shall not comprise more than a certain threshold level;
-ability to locally maintain&service a/c without access to Boeing/Airbus sources shall be thought out beforehand;
-C919(and maybe even CR929) programs are both urgent and intermediate. Urgent because they're the only part of the fleet that can't be taken away in some way. Intermediate - because, well, imported part of the aircraft still can be denied to the manufacturer, preventing new deliveries.

Overall - probably no less than ~30-40% of overall fleet preferably shall be of domestic (or, at least, 100% non-western) lineage.

We all talk about Yamal and the other gas projects as if they are complete. They are not, well they aren't at name plate capacity yet.
Yamal 2 is lead by Technip (French) & JGC (Japanese). The modules for them only started shipping from China last year. There is gotta be atleast another year or 2 of work left on them. I don't believe those companies are able to finish the work under the current sanctions.
Obviously the optimistic case is things settle down and they go back to work, but it'll be force majeure now anyhow, and if they walk away with all the drawings and warrantee/spares/catalyst etc etc etc, its gonna be a bitch to finish, maybe another 3 years to finish.

The likes of CPEEC would be rubbing their hands at the opportunity to run EPC contracts building new greenfield mega projects in Russia, probably in some JV with Russian corporations. Alot of the Chinese processes that was recently patented wouldn't get a go before this, would now come in since they would be the only options. (At an efficiency cost of course). Having real producing plants would significantly enhance their marketability & bankability for future projects.
If they get it right, it is going to shake up the market and provide proper competition to the other tier ones in the middle east/Africa/South America & Central Asia & SE Asia.

nixdorf said:

Ukraine means Putin will never give up power. The moment he leaves office they will demand his presence in the Hague.

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Right behind Bush, Obama, and Bin Sultan?

Given the punishingly high natural gas prices >$2200!!, it's evident that Russia now considers Germany and France as enemies and wants to punish them for their perfidy on Minsk.
Germany as a response is now re-arming for what can only be interpreted by Russia as another attempt at Operation Barbarossa in the near future, under American behest.

Energy and food inflation probably would be the biggest impact due to the current Ukraine crisis. Gas, coal, oil, and wheat prices are up.

You guys are discussing long-term consequences of a war that isn't even (officially) over yet?

The key question is whether or not there will be an insurgency (after the war.) And this question applies with or without annexation, since insurgencies can happen either in annexed territories or vassal states.

If there is an insurgency it will destabilize the entire region for decades, and that fire may spread. On the other hand, if there is no insurgency, it further secures Russia's position.

Long term consequences are that China now knows what to expect and where the EU stands in a possible taiwan reunification and US conflict.
Europe is compromised, best to marginalise and weaken the EU to irrelevance such that their protestations and sanctions have a negligible effect or better yet, apply the byzantine approach of using Russia to control europe. If i were the PBOC administrator, i'd be reconsidering my holdings of euros not just dollars.

One long term impact = SDF admins did not welcome the attention Russia/Ukraine topics get from big bro, so they lock threads