Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
Depending on the outcome we might witness some kind of Berlin Wall type border around Ukraine if occupied long term.
To keep resistance fighters out and Ukrainians locked inside.
 

jshw31

New Member
Registered Member
Did Russia kill a puppy on live TV? @sheogorath Almost 80% of UN general assembly, 141 nations condemn Russia;'s invasion, 35 abstain, 5 voted against (including North Korea, Belarus, Syria) among the 181 total nations present in general assembly.

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That's a ~78% vote to condemn, which is well over the 66% majority needed to evict Russia from UNSC permanent seat. It would be hilarious if the general assembly designated Ukraine as the legal successor state to Soviet Union rather than Russia. Afterall, @FairAndUnbiased Ukraine and Russia were "legal equals" in Soviet Union, so Ukraine has a chance to inherit the Soviet permanent seat ;) The ultimate 'Uno reverse' card. China needs to be aware that "US is WORSE" to justify Russian invasion isn't going to cut it with 80% of the world's nations, and should stay far away from any 'formal treaty alliance' with Russia.

You can't remove Russia from the UNSC without their permission. You need both that 66% for the UN amendment as well as the Security Council approval/recommendation..
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
You can't remove Russia from the UNSC without their permission. You need both that 66% for the UN amendment as well as the Security Council approval/recommendation..
KMT-ROC got ejected from UNSC permanent seat and from UN altogether with just a 2/3 general assembly majority vote, it did not require a UNSC vote, which KMT-ROC and USA would obviously have vetoed. ;)
 

jshw31

New Member
Registered Member
KMT-ROC got ejected from UNSC permanent seat and from UN altogether with just a 2/3 general assembly majority vote, it did not require a UNSC vote, which KMT-ROC and USA would obviously have vetoed. ;)

I'm not saying it's likely, but the logic would be that Soviet Union collapsed, and Russia is an illegitimate legal successor to Soviet Union, since multiple post-Soviet republics like Ukraine held "legal equal status" to Russia within Soviet Union. So Ukraine can legally say they have equal successorship rights to Soviet Union, so why not discontinue the Soviet permanent seat and nobody gets one. ;)
Depends on if what you mean by evict. If you want to remove Russia then you need UNSC approval. Of course if you were serious about the scenario of replacing the USSR credentials from Russia to Ukraine then you would require just the 66% vote. I think theres a higher chance of everyone else just leaving the UN and creating UNv2 than anyone taking that seriously as long as Russia has a functioning gov't.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
KMT-ROC got ejected from UNSC permanent seat and from UN altogether with just a 2/3 general assembly majority vote, it did not require a UNSC vote, which KMT-ROC and USA would obviously have vetoed. ;)
It only worked because there was some logic to which country actually represents "China". In Ru case, there is no such way around - only one post-Soviet country claimed the legacy(and debts). Others preferred to start from scratch.

Furthermore, the point of UNSC isn't just a rich kid club. Point was to give a veto to countries that shall never ever consider other means against each other.
After the appearance of strategic nuclear weapons, I think there is no reason to explain why is that the case.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Did Russia kill a puppy on live TV? @sheogorath Almost 80% of UN general assembly, 141 nations condemn Russia;'s invasion, 35 abstain, 5 voted against (including North Korea, Belarus, Syria) among the 181 total nations present in general assembly.

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That's a ~78% vote to condemn, which is well over the 66% majority needed to evict Russia from UNSC permanent seat. It would be hilarious if the general assembly designated Ukraine as the legal successor state to Soviet Union rather than Russia. Afterall, @FairAndUnbiased Ukraine and Russia were "legal equals" in Soviet Union, so Ukraine has a chance to inherit the Soviet permanent seat ;) The ultimate 'Uno reverse' card. China needs to be aware that "US is WORSE" to justify Russian invasion isn't going to cut it with 80% of the world's nations, and should stay far away from any 'formal treaty alliance' with Russia.
Depends on if what you mean by evict. If you want to remove Russia then you need UNSC approval. Of course if you were serious about the scenario of replacing the USSR credentials from Russia to Ukraine then you would require just the 66% vote. I think theres a higher chance of everyone else just leaving the UN and creating UNv2 than anyone taking that seriously as long as Russia has a functioning gov't.
Condemning an action is largely meaningless, so it's a lot easier to persuade smaller countries to vote in favour of it. A vote on the establishment of a military invasion, the imposition of sanctions, or even the expulsion of a member would be much harder. It took a lot of negotiating to get China's seat restored.

I still think the simplest way is what the Americans threatened to do, kick out all UN diplomats. You don't need any foreign approval as it's purely a domestic security affair. If you can't get anyone to sit on the table, you don't get a vote. The Korean war got a UN mandate because the USSR didn't take their seat.

I never thought America would stoop low enough to do that, but it appears to be entirely possible and legal by the book. It was pretty stupid for America to let us know it's a strategy they may use in the future.

Something does need to change. Even if China or Russia does nothing wrong, what happens if America elects another Trump? It has zero credibility.

So called neutral countries like Switzerland and Sweden aren't really neutral and will happily adopt the US position when they get the call.

Maybe the area around the UNSC becomes a sovereign state that can issue it's own visas like the Vatican, but then diplomats need somewhere to live and a way to get into the country.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Given the punishingly high natural gas prices >$2200!!, it's evident that Russia now considers Germany and France as enemies and wants to punish them for their perfidy on Minsk.
Germany as a response is now re-arming for what can only be interpreted by Russia as another attempt at Operation Barbarossa in the near future, under American behest.
Third time is the charm.
 
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