Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

MixedReality

Junior Member
Registered Member
Condemning an action is largely meaningless, so it's a lot easier to persuade smaller countries to vote in favour of it. A vote on the establishment of a military invasion, the imposition of sanctions, or even the expulsion of a member would be much harder. It took a lot of negotiating to get China's seat restored.

I still think the simplest way is what the Americans threatened to do, kick out all UN diplomats. You don't need any foreign approval as it's purely a domestic security affair. If you can't get anyone to sit on the table, you don't get a vote. The Korean war got a UN mandate because the USSR didn't take their seat.

I never thought America would stoop low enough to do that, but it appears to be entirely possible and legal by the book. It was pretty stupid for America to let us know it's a strategy they may use in the future.

Something does need to change. Even if China or Russia does nothing wrong, what happens if America elects another Trump? It has zero credibility.

So called neutral countries like Switzerland and Sweden aren't really neutral and will happily adopt the US position when they get the call.

Maybe the area around the UNSC becomes a sovereign state that can issue it's own visas like the Vatican, but then diplomats need somewhere to live and a way to get into the country.

Move the UN to a country like Singapore. Switzerland can’t be trusted.
 

MrCrazyBoyRavi

Junior Member
Registered Member
copied from a reddit post.

A bit different opinion from Slovenia (EU) Tomaž Mastnak: For whose interests and benefits? As soon as the measures against Covid were revoked, we got the measures against Russia. The revocation of anti-virus measures is most likely temporary. Decision-making structures and enforcement mechanisms have remained in place, intact, they can be re-launched at any time, and we still have no defense or protection against them. Measures against Russia are largely the work of the same forces with more or less the same goals. In both cases, it is a centrally run globalist operation in which national authorities are merely subcontractors. We are drowning in total propaganda, lies and manipulation. The obsession continues.

Since recovering from the disastrous Yeltsin era, the Russians have been working to reconcile the world's security architecture with new global power relations so that the security of one would not be to the detriment of the other. Their position seems to me fundamentally rational, logical and supported by facts, and legitimate. I cannot say this for the position of the United States and, in the alternative, the EU and NATO, which do not abide by the agreements and take away their special rights. The military intervention is the result of a confrontation of these views, not some incomprehensible Russian perversion. We can understand this war even less if we indulge in the obsession with Putin - just as we cannot understand the epidemic if we only see the virus. The responsibility for the confrontation of positions and military escalation, not their coordination, is primarily American. The most general framework for explaining current events is the disintegration of the world order established after World War II. Western propaganda blames Russia for this, but in reality this arrangement has survived because the balance of power in the world has changed significantly. The main engine of the conflict is now the West-led effort by the West to maintain the global domination that is slipping out of its hands by force and at all costs. However, if we were to look for concrete political reasons for the decline of this regime, NATO expansion to the east is among the key ones. NATO's expansion to Russia's borders violates an agreement between the former Soviet Union and Western powers during German unification that NATO will not cross the Elbe. Now it is just one in a series of international arrangements and agreements that Westerners rejected after winning the Cold War. For years, they have been trying to replace international law, which Russia insists on in principle, with "rules of the game" that they set themselves. Then there is the anomaly in the structure of international law: outside its framework and within the framework of the UN Charter. With Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, the West has suddenly rediscovered international law and condemned Russia for violating it. I leave aside the question of how solid the legal basis for Russian military intervention is. However, I would like to point out that the world hegemony of the West after the Second World War was based on violence. The atrocities in Hiroshima and Nagasaki were followed by at least 69 US wars, military interventions, coups, "regime changes" and similar most brutal encroachments on the internal affairs of other countries. American violent violations of international law, assisted by Europeans, are a constant in postwar history. Westerners have no moral right to resent Russia now, which is not doing anything they have not done and are not doing themselves. It hurts and angers them that the balance of power has changed. All this and much more is captured by the notion of double standards. This hypocrisy corrupts morality and corrodes thinking. Declaring the movements of the Russian army on the territory of the Russian Federation as aggression and the American on the Russian borders as defensive (which we have often heard or read about in the last year) is also an attack on logic. Add to this the savage censorship, the criminalization of dissent, and the arsenal of military-psychological tools, and we get moral, mental, and spiritual devastation like never before (which applies to both cunning and anti-Russian propaganda). This is the price and condition for maintaining American-centric globalist domination. The envious regime has brutally annihilated democracy for two years, and now these anti-democratic forces are posing as a defender of democracy before Russia. As the people began to resist the cunning regime, we now have, in addition to the internal enemy that splits society, the external one that unites it. Anger at our rulers is directed at the Russians. Both the "anti-vaccine" internal and Russian external enemies are not only demonized, but dehumanized. Their views, views, desires and interests are not only inadmissible, they are downright unimaginable. Americans and Europeans do not seem to be able to understand that NATO weapons, which are closely aimed at the Russians, are an existential threat to them. They can no longer even imagine anyone still opposing Nazism today. The United States stopped denazification in Germany as early as 1946-1947. The CIA has been working with Ukrainian Nazi collaborators and neo-Nazis for more than 70 years. The U.S. is working at least for its own short-term benefit, albeit illusory. But Europeans have gone mad. Their Russophobia is worthy of Nazi propaganda films from the beginning of Operation Barbarossa. The sympathy for the fellow man they now show to the Ukrainians is not convincing because they did not show it to the Iraqis, Afghans, etc., nor were they bothered by the eight-year shelling of Donbas. The war, which could have been prevented, but they preferred to help boil it, is now being fanned.

They sacrificed Ukraine for American geopolitical ambitions, and Europe with hysterical anti-Russian measures.

(The above text was written and published recently by Slovenian researcher and sociologist T. Mastnak)

In addition: It's even impossible to follow the Russian media which have been removed from internet access in the EU, to be able to see the opinion of the other party. This reminds me to 3.Reich media policy.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
If Yanukovych didn't flee or If Putin went all in and took Kyiv in 2014, then Russia probably would not have to deal with insurgency. As much as Yanukovych is a weak leader, he is still a Ukrainian and many Russian speaking Ukrainians were upset and angry about the protests. Since Russia took Crimea and east part of Ukraine, Ukrainians no longer see Russia as a liberator but an enemy. Basically, Putin lost Ukraine in 2014.

As of now, it is difficult to say how bad the insurgency would be. However, if Russia took Kyiv by force with a lot of casualties, then expected things to go south. It would take a generation to forgive a bloody siege that resulted in many deaths.
The insurgency will not be so bad IMO. Koreans and Taiwanese did not rebel too hard against Imperial Japan.

Did Russia kill a puppy on live TV? @sheogorath Almost 80% of UN general assembly, 141 nations condemn Russia;'s invasion, 35 abstain, 5 voted against (including North Korea, Belarus, Syria) among the 181 total nations present in general assembly.

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That's a ~78% vote to condemn, which is well over the 66% majority needed to evict Russia from UNSC permanent seat. It would be hilarious if the general assembly designated Ukraine as the legal successor state to Soviet Union rather than Russia. Afterall, @FairAndUnbiased Ukraine and Russia were "legal equals" in Soviet Union, so Ukraine has a chance to inherit the Soviet permanent seat ;) The ultimate 'Uno reverse' card. China needs to be aware that "US is WORSE" to justify Russian invasion isn't going to cut it with 80% of the world's nations, and should stay far away from any 'formal treaty alliance' with Russia.
Yep they were legal equals in the Soviet Union but the important part is Russia agreed to take on Soviet debt too. So Ukraine can indeed get the UNSC seat from Russia. They'll get all the debt as well. They want that shit?
 

HereToSeePics

Junior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
One long term impact = SDF admins did not welcome the attention Russia/Ukraine topics get from big bro, so they lock threads ;)
We probably saved the various 3 letter agencies lots of time aggregating all the daily Ukraine conflict reports for them.

I think one outcome of this war (+pandemic) is that food/energy/minerals/metal prices will remain very high forever. That could introduce changes way more profound than the war itself on geopolitics.
Depends on for which country - with the current projections, China will likely have a significantly cheaper supplier of energy, high value metals and some food grains.

Depending on the outcome we might witness some kind of Berlin Wall type border around Ukraine if occupied long term.
To keep resistance fighters out and Ukrainians locked inside.

Russian S-400 batteries stationed in western Ukraine will cover a good part of Poland including Warsaw. Oh and Vilnius, Lithuanian too.

China really needs to diversify its foreign exchange reserves into precious metals and important industrial metals, such as gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rare earths, or even copper.

Having precious metals isn't really good for everyday commerce and FX operations(it's more important to have precious metals in your own national vaults to back up your currency for rainy day situations). Countries keep reserves in the central banks of other counties as collateral to facilitate cross boarder payments so they don't have to send physical sacks of cash to each other when someone buys something. The more pragmatic thing to do is to push the global expansion of the yuan payments as a major cross border settlement currency, that will force other countries to be worried about China sanctioning their banks instead of the other way around.
 
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semiconprof

New Member
Registered Member
The insurgency will not be so bad IMO. Koreans and Taiwanese did not rebel too hard against Imperial Japan.
There was no one cheering for any Korean or Taiwanese insurgents back then. In the age of Internet and social media, that will not be the case. Ukrainians will have the world behind their back. Unless Putin implements an iron curtain of some kind, both physically and digitally.
 
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GodRektsNoobs

Junior Member
Registered Member
There was no one cheering for any Korean or Taiwanese insurgents back then. In the age of Internet and social media, that will not be the case. Ukrainians will have the world behind their back. Unless Putin implements an iron curtain of some kind, both physically and digitally.
Cheering still mean nothing if there is no supplies coming through. Russia could learn from Xinjiang on qualling insurgency. Use big data to filter out potential suspects, isolate them from public and rehabilitate them. If push comes to shove there is the Chechnya method, which Ruusia have extensive experience with.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
ability to locally maintain&service a/c without access to Boeing/Airbus sources shall be thought out beforehand;
Russia has a maintenance center in Russia for Airbus aircraft. But you still need to have parts. And you know how it is today with just-in-time and zero stocks policy. Airplanes will continue to fly but there will be attrition.

C919(and maybe even CR929) programs are both urgent and intermediate. Urgent because they're the only part of the fleet that can't be taken away in some way. Intermediate - because, well, imported part of the aircraft still can be denied to the manufacturer, preventing new deliveries.
Program to make those aircraft 100% Chinese is also urgent. But after what happened with MA700 I think China already had plenty of time to figure that one out.

Overall - probably no less than ~30-40% of overall fleet preferably shall be of domestic (or, at least, 100% non-western) lineage.
I would say 50%. But meeting this target in less than a decade is, I think, impossible. China should have started with this earlier but it had other priorities like high speed rail development. I still think China made the right choice. But engine effort should have started earlier back when relations with Ukraine were still good. The Soviet Union had achieved rough parity with the West in engine technology in the late 1980s after being perpetually like a decade behind for much of the preceding time.

I think one outcome of this war (+pandemic) is that food/energy/minerals/metal prices will remain very high forever. That could introduce changes way more profound than the war itself on geopolitics.
There will be a massive push by the rest of the world to move from Russian to Chinese aluminum supplies. But the thing is this requires a huge amount of energy and China is already on a knife's edge with regards to this. China already is planning to build more coal power plants but it still takes like 2-3 years to build one. And it will make the coal situation worse.
China needs to ramp up the nuclear construction program. This would also soak up some of the staff being fired from civilian shipyards in China which are currently winding down like welders, etc.
 

SteelBird

Colonel
The UN votes to condemn Russia. In favor 141, against 5 and abstention 35. What surprises me is that my country is one of those who votes in favor too (I thought we should vote abstain instead).

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