Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Did Russia kill a puppy on live TV? @sheogorath Almost 80% of UN general assembly, 141 nations condemn Russia;'s invasion, 35 abstain, 5 voted against (including North Korea, Belarus, Syria) among the 181 total nations present in general assembly.

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That's a ~78% vote to condemn, which is well over the 66% majority needed to evict Russia from UNSC permanent seat. It would be hilarious if the general assembly designated Ukraine as the legal successor state to Soviet Union rather than Russia. Afterall, @FairAndUnbiased Ukraine and Russia were "legal equals" in Soviet Union, so Ukraine has a chance to inherit the Soviet permanent seat ;) The ultimate 'Uno reverse' card. China needs to be aware that "US is WORSE" to justify Russian invasion isn't going to cut it with 80% of the world's nations, and should stay far away from any 'formal treaty alliance' with Russia.
 

KYli

Brigadier
If Yanukovych didn't flee or If Putin went all in and took Kyiv in 2014, then Russia probably would not have to deal with insurgency. As much as Yanukovych is a weak leader, he is still a Ukrainian and many Russian speaking Ukrainians were upset and angry about the protests. Since Russia took Crimea and east part of Ukraine, Ukrainians no longer see Russia as a liberator but an enemy. Basically, Putin lost Ukraine in 2014.

As of now, it is difficult to say how bad the insurgency would be. However, if Russia took Kyiv by force with a lot of casualties, then expected things to go south. It would take a generation to forgive a bloody siege that resulted in many deaths.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Another geopolitical impact:
The US will no longer be able to use Azov as its hybrid warfare asset much as it used ISIS in afghanistan and syria. I don't see Russia taking any prisoners of Azov after the operation in the Donbass and Mariupol.
They don't seem to have a shortage of recruits coming from the west from what I can see on social media.

They are running out of countries to base them out of though.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Did Russia kill a puppy on live TV? @sheogorath Almost 80% of UN general assembly, 141 nations condemn Russia;'s invasion, 35 abstain, 5 voted against (including North Korea, Belarus, Syria) among the 181 total nations present in general assembly.

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That's a ~78% vote to condemn, which is well over the 66% majority needed to evict Russia from UNSC permanent seat. It would be hilarious if the general assembly designated Ukraine as the legal successor state to Soviet Union rather than Russia. Afterall, @FairAndUnbiased Ukraine and Russia were "legal equals" in Soviet Union, so Ukraine has a chance to inherit the Soviet permanent seat ;) The ultimate 'Uno reverse' card. China needs to be aware that "US is WORSE" to justify Russian invasion isn't going to cut it with 80% of the world's nations, and should stay far away from any 'formal treaty alliance' with Russia.
by this logic they can also evict China. and give to Turkey. Turkey will also attract abstention votes.
Turkey will continue to do business with Russia even in front of whole west opposition.
 

Vatt’ghern

Junior Member
Registered Member
They don't seem to have a shortage of recruits coming from the west from what I can see on social media.

They are running out of countries to base them out of though.

Easily replaced.
Unfortunately private contractors are a dime a dozen.
Military age foreign PTSD afflicted veterans without a 'homeland' are always going to be trouble for any host nation taking them in, hence why the US would prefer for them to be based on Russia's doorstep and not say back in the continental US where they can foment another Charlottesville. Can you imagine if the Jan 6th insurrectionists also had Azov battalion veterans who weren't afraid of taking and giving damage?
 
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